SPLIT

Could President Viktor Yanukovich foresee the potential fallout for Ukraine from his decision not to sign Kiev's Association Agreement with the European Union? The actual refusal to pursue European integration (that is how the Ukrainian opposition interpreted Yanukovich's move during the Eastern Partnership summit held in Vilnius last November) in favour of further integration with Russia spurred opposition protests, which quickly escalated into mass disturbances - first in the capital Kiev and later in many other regions of the country. 

The alarming developments in Ukraine are unfolding fast, while world media reports coming from the Maidan (Square) and other parts of the Ukrainian capital that have been cordoned off by the military and armoured vehicles resemble reports obtained from battlefields, without exaggeration. Not only "Molotov cocktails" (makeshift bombs) and cobblestones but also firearms are being used. Over 1,000 people have been injured and even some killed in clashes between the protesters and law enforcers over the past few days.

The news about the fatalities (their number varies from two to five, according to reports) has added radicalism to the anti-government forces, which accused the authorities of having committed a crime against their own people. 

In the meantime, the Ukrainian government was quick to deny involvement in the killing of protesters. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said the authorities were not to blame for the deaths.

"The organisers and participants of the mass disturbances are to blame for the casualties, which we already have, unfortunately," Azarov said, branding the radicals involved in the riots as "militants" and "terrorists".

This term could be considered an indicator of the extent of antagonism between the opposing parties. Nonetheless, there is some truth in the Ukrainian prime minister's words: ethnic Armenian Ukrainian citizen Sergei Nigoyan, who was among those killed, posted a photo on his page on a social networking website shortly before his death that showed him posing in the background of symbolic items of the notorious Armenian terror group ASALA.

The opposing sides disagree on evaluating the unrest in Ukraine: the organisers of the protests regard it as "a second orange revolution", while the authorities label it as a coup attempt. 

The protesters have mainly called for resignation of the Ukrainian president and government and holding early presidential and parliamentary elections. Seemingly, the many-hour-long talks between the opposition leaders and the president have led to a compromise: Prime Minister Mykola Azarov expressed readiness to disband the government, but on the condition that this decision is endorsed by a vote in parliament. It is noteworthy that an extraordinary session of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, is due on 28 January.

Moreover, Azarov stated that the government was ready for dialogue with the opposition on Ukraine's legislation regarding presidential elections.

Following another round of negotiations, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the leader of the Batkyvshchina (Fatherland) parliamentary faction, who represents the opposition, said there is "a very high chance to stop the bloodshed".

However, later the Maidan protesters called for the opposition's pullout from the negotiations with the authorities and for staging further protests in central Kiev.

In any case, the Ukrainian opposition has achieved some success in the country's regions as well. Lviv Province governor Oleg Salo has stepped down under pressure from the protesters. The heads of regional administrations in Rivne, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk and other cities followed suit after their residences were seized by the protesters. 

Given the current course of developments, this is just the beginning. 

Although President Yanukovich provided assurances during his phone conversations with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso as well as the leaders of numerous Western countries that he had no intention to declare a state of emergency in Ukraine and was committed to the dialogue with the opposition, this decision may be passed any time.

The developments in Ukraine have shown that the conflict between the authorities and opposition is much more profound and serious than mere differences of opinion regarding the country's foreign political course. The decision made by President Yanukovich during the Vilnius summit was merely a catalyst of a belligerent mood that had long been dormant in the minds of the anti-government forces.

The Ukrainian authorities are facing a challenging situation. The anti-government protests have assumed such a large scale that it is impossible to ignore the demands of their organisers. Moreover, the opposition will not be content only with the government's resignation, which the authorities may offer as a compromise.

In addition, Yanukovich's team faces the risk of encountering serious problems with the United States and the European Union, whose leaders have unequivocally threatened imposing sanctions against those deemed responsible for a crackdown on protesters in Kiev.

Moreover, the U.S. embassy in Kiev has revoked the visas issued to several citizens of Ukraine who are linked to the use of force against the protesters.

Having passed a last-minute and unpopular decision to suspend the process of Ukraine's rapprochement with the EU and shift the political course toward Moscow, Yanukovich condemned himself to inevitable confrontation not only with the opposition at home, but also the Western "hawks". The latter deem Ukraine's admission to a single European family as a part of the strategic plan aimed at intruding into the Russian sphere of influence and, ultimately, weakening Russia. Under these circumstances, Yanukovich's only foothold is also Russia, which, however, is unlikely to provide much assistance to the neighbouring country amid a situation that has long spiralled out of control.

The anti-government protests are engulfing more and more Ukrainian regions and groups of the local population. The West openly favours the participants of these protests - regardless of how hard-line their actions are. But Moscow definitely will not back down from its position in this issue. This means that Ukraine may turn into a stage for another stand-off between Moscow and the West whereby various mutual provocations have unfortunately become frequent.

The hope is now pinned on the common sense of the Ukrainian people, which would prevent the country's sliding into civil war and ensure a peaceful outcome of the current developments.