CONVERGENCE OF IMPLACABLE OPPONENTS

One of the most significant trends in world politics in the last few months is certainly a kind of a thaw in relations between Iran and the West. Moreover, some experts are talking about the possibility of Iran's relations improving with its most bitter rivals, one of whom until recently was the United States. A professor at Indiana University (USA) and an expert on Iran, Jamsheed K. Choksy, shared his ideas about the policies of the new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani with R+. 

- The new Iranian leadership is demonstrating willingness to improve its relations with the West. How can you explain these very significant changes in Iranian foreign policy? And does the majority in the Islamic Republic share this approach? 

- Many in Iran, especially a majority of its urban and young people, seek greater intellectual, commercial, and social contacts with the West, especially with the USA. It was that population that elected Hassan Rouhani as the new president in 2013. In addition, diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions have taken great tolls on Iran for many years. Iran can no longer afford to dismiss sanctions and isolation as irrelevant and trivial. Iranian leaders are therefore under domestic pressure to reorient that country's foreign policy at least to the degree that accommodations can be reached with the West to ensure sanctions and isolation relief in order that the lives of Iranians improve. 

- What do you think about the future of relations between Iran and Israel? 

- Cordial relations between Iran and Israel are unlikely for the near future. Iranian leaders will need to cease their anti-Semitic diatribes, accept the reality of Israel's existence as a nation and stop calling for Israel's destruction, cease assisting Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza to attack Israel, and roll back Iran's nuclear programme so no atomic threat can levelled against Israel before leaders in Jerusalem will be ready to reach rapprochement with Tehran. So friendly words by the Iranian president will have to be followed by significant changes in Iran's official goals and behaviours before Israelis would be comfortable extending comprise. 

- Do you expect any changes in the attitude of the US and Israel to the “Iranian problem”? 

- US-Israel relations will survive the differences over Iran. 

- What new can we expect from Iranian policy towards neighbouring countries, in particular Azerbaijan? 

- Iran has historically been the expansionist power in the region, for much longer than even Russia. Iranian policy towards Azerbaijan will remain grounded on Tehran's belief that it is the dominant partner in the bilateral relationship. Just as Iran expects the government in Iraq to be its client, so too does Tehran want Azerbaijan to defer to it rather than to the West on foreign policy matters relating to the region. 

- Recently, one of the Kurdish deputies of the Iranian parliament proposed changing the name of West Azerbaijan Province and creating a Kurdish province on its territory. What do you think of this idea? Will the Iranian authorities support this idea? And will this initiative provoke clashes between the Kurdish and Azeri population of Iran? 

- Iranian authorities may toy with that suggestion in order to make both the nation of Azerbaijan and Azerbaijanis living in Iran feel the power of Tehran. However, Iran's leaders know that their Kurdish population could attempt to link up with Kurdish regions in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran. They will not want to strengthen Kurdish nationalism any more than they wish to strengthen Azerbaijani nationalism among the people of northwestern Iran. So it can be expected that those regions in Iran will be monitored very closely by Iranian authorities who will seek to prevent both cessation and ethnic clashes. 

- Some experts believe that easing sanctions against Iran and allowing this country to export its energy resources to the West will have a negative impact on Azerbaijan in economic and political terms. How would you comment on this opinion? 

- The economic, political, and geographical significance of all other crude oil and natural gas exporting nations will be impacted by Iran ramping up its export of those energy sources. This is not an unexpected consequence of demand and supply in an energy-hungry world. After all, Iran has the world's largest proved reserve of natural gas and fourth largest proved reserve of petroleum.