TRENDS IN THE "SLAVIC SPRING"

The resignation of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and the repeal of the so-called "draconian laws" adopted on January 16 were undoubtedly the main events of the last week in Ukraine.

Azarov was blamed for the very same things which had been imputed to his predecessors, including such familiar names as Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych.

As regards the laws of 16 January, which imposed, inter alia, criminal liability for posting libelous and extremist materials on the Internet and banned rallies with protestors wearing masks, helmets and "other means of disguise", these were regarded by many opposition members as the "end of an era of Ukrainian parliamentarism" and the establishment of Yanukovych's personal dictatorship. However, Yanukovych disowned his "gains" quite easily.

Furthermore, Ukraine's parliament passed an amnesty bill which became the main stumbling block in the way of reconciliation between the authorities and the opposition. Specifically, the authorities demanded guarantees, namely the clearing of all seized government and municipal buildings, removing of barricades on Hrushevsky Street in the center of Kiev, i.e. the actual dissolution of the Euromaidan [a wave of ongoing demonstrations]. These conditions are to be met in no more than 15 days. Opposition leaders immediately said they could not settle for this and threatened with the continuation of protests and new clashes.

Moreover, the opposition represented by Tyahnybok, Yatsenyuk and Klitschko declined Yanukovych's offer to take up posts in the government, which is understandable. First, the consent would have broken up their united ranks because Tyahnybok, who brings the most combat-capable protesters to the Euromaidan, would have been left out in this case. But most importantly, it would oblige the opposition leaders not only to cooperate with the authorities but also to share common responsibility. Accordingly, it would have been the responsibility of Prime Minister Yatsenyuk to re-confirm all financial and gas agreements with Russia, while Deputy Prime Minister for Social Issues Klitschko might have been knocked out by these same social issues already in the first round.

It is quite obvious that the Ukrainian opposition is fragmented, has no clear objectives and a clear plan of how to get out of the crisis. It is rumored that the goal of Euromaidan is not so much in changing the government as in making Ukraine finally break with the "post-Soviet model of development". However, nobody says what should be the new model of development of the country and, most importantly, how to achieve it. Another problem is that the protest of the opposition has failed to remain peaceful as already there are victims and casualties among law enforcement officers.

In the meantime, President Viktor Yanukovych took a sick leave. His political opponents did not believe in his high temperature and thought that he did not want to sign the repeal of dictatorial "laws" and meet with representatives of the opposition and the international community. As always, observers were divided in their opinion: some of them argued that Yanukovych had poor control over the situation in the country, while others maintained that he outperformed the opposition and drove its leaders into a corner. In any case, the circumstances in which the Ukrainian president has found himself are very complex. It is wrong to simplify the situation and mistakenly think, for example, that Yanukovych enjoys unequivocal support in the eastern part of Ukraine. There are strong protest moods against the head of state in many eastern cities where people believe that the president has betrayed the interests of his voters. Indeed, it was Yanukovych who led Ukraine towards integration with the European Union until he suddenly turned aside, and nobody managed to explain, why did it happen? Because of a political miscalculation? Was the president framed? After all, such decisions are not made overnight.

Thus, in general, it is difficult to make forecasts about the situation in Ukraine with any certainty but some trends can still be identified.

A paradoxical trend

It appears that, despite the tragedy of the situation, loss of life and talks about the actual disintegration of the country, developments in Ukraine bear a touch of romanticism and entertainment and are a source for jokes and caustic comments.

For example, talking about the Euromaidan, Stephen Colbert, the famous American political satirist (who can be likened to Mikhail Zadornov in Russia), honestly admits that he is definitely on the side of Ukrainian protesters, though he knows neither who they are nor where Ukraine is. Now it is easy to fill in this gap owing to an article entitled "9 questions about Ukraine you were too embarrassed to ask" published on the website of The Washington Post; the material begins with geographical and historical reference. Meanwhile, in Russia, where everybody knows about Ukraine, people are looking for entertainment. The National News Agency of Ukraine, Ukrinform, reports that "revolutionary" tours to Kiev are very popular with Muscovites as people want to "feel the revolutionary spirit." Trips to Ukraine are organized privately and as a rule include a visit to the Maidan [Independence Square] and Hrushevsky Street. A manager of one of the Moscow companies wrote this in the social network: "We went in a group of four and had quite an experience; we strolled around the Maidan, talked to people, made a lot of pictures, bought souvenirs." And he adds: "We have even seen Klitschko."

There are numerous reasons for endless jokes: the outfit worn by protesters, in particular, their ski helmets, kitchen utensils painted in the colors of the Ukrainian flag, a homemade wooden catapult, burning tires. Berkut antiriot police officers were videotaped riding down the snow hills on their shields, and this movie is now a hit in the Internet. The passion with which protesters destroy the central part of their capital, Kiev, is disturbing. According to preliminary estimates, the damage has already amounted to 2.5m dollars. This includes burnt-out buildings and a bridge, charred trees, uprooted block stones.

A militarized trend

Real battles are being fought in the news feeds and social networks, and it is hard to discriminate between the truth and fiction in this flow of information. There are different rumors. In his article for Le Temps, a Swiss French-language daily newspaper, Ukrainian writer and essayist Yuri Andrukhovych tells about Euromaidan supporters who have been found dead or are missing, and argues that there are "death squads" in Kiev that seize supporters of European integration, take them to a forest, strip naked and torture in the cold. To substantiate his arguments, he points to Dmitry Bulatov, one of the leaders of the Ukrainian "Automaidan" [drivers' movement within the Euromaidan], who was allegedly tortured for information about who is funding this protest movement. Furthermore, rumors are periodically spread about snipers on the roofs and the landing of the Russian troops.

A financial trend

It is noteworthy that there are still very few comments on the role of the Ukrainian business in what is happening, though everyone knows to what extent Ukrainian politicians depend on Ukrainian businessmen. Thus, INSIDER, a Ukrainian internet publication, reported that a meeting of oligarchs was going to be held in Kiev on January 25, supposedly to be attended by Rinat Akhmetov, Dmitry Firtash, Igor Kolomoisky, and Petro Poroshenko. According to some observers, if the 2004 constitution, which weakens the role of the president in the country, is reinstated in Ukraine, it is most likely that local oligarchs will have a decisive say in the matters. The only question is which of them will stay afloat? It was reported in social networks that "European banks began to sabotage financial transactions on the accounts of Group DF owned by Firtash ... dozens of contracts have already been thwarted." On the other hand, as reported by the Federation of Employers of Ukraine, Firtash is "experiencing pressure" from the Russian customs authorities. According to other reports, Akhmetov may be forced to sell some of his companies to owners from Russia. The mass media reports about a rekindling of a trade war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, the purpose of which may well be in putting pressure on big business in Ukraine.

In the meantime, everybody is concerned with the fate of Russia's 15bn dollar loan, the first tranche of which in an amount of 3bn dollars Kiev has already received. Furthermore, in December, Russia and Ukraine agreed to cut the price of gas by about a third and Moscow seemingly does not have an intention to backtrack on its promises. At the recent EU-Russia summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave assurances that everything would be in accordance with the agreements. At the same time, first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that everything "will depend on the position of the new government of Ukraine." While Gazprom deputy chairman Alexander Medvedev reminded in an interview with the Russia 24 television channel that as matter of fact, Kiev was supposed to repay almost 3bn dollars for 2013 gas supplies before January 25. Heads of Ukraine's energy sector were expected to visit Moscow, but oops - the government resigned. Moreover, according to Medvedev, unrest in Ukraine poses risks for gas transit to Europe.

A foreign policy trend

The West continues to support the Ukrainian opposition, albeit mostly verbally. In his traditional State of the Union address, US President Barack Obama reiterated the importance of democratic freedoms in Ukraine ranking the country somewhere between Tunisia and Myanmar. Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird reminded that key Ukrainian government officials "responsible for the crackdown" would be barred from Canada. PACE adopted a resolution whereby the issue of sanctions against the Ukrainian authorities, if the violation of human rights were to continue in the country, could be debated in April. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen complained that the Association Agreement with Ukraine could be of great importance for European security. Meanwhile, US Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland is preparing to personally visit the Maidan once again, though it is not yet known whether she is going to have refreshments with her.

A separatistic trend

By all accounts, the breakup of Ukraine will benefit no-one, if you come to think of it. Without the eastern industrialized regions, Western Ukraine will be a very heavy burden for the European Union. While the actual accession of Eastern Ukraine should seemingly benefit Russia, this will also mean having a source of constant tension at hand with a very real possibility of destabilizing the situation in Moldova, in the south of Russia and the North Caucasus. From this, some may conclude that in the end, nobody needs Ukraine with a sick economy and confused population. But the core question is whether Ukraine is needed by Ukrainians? What does Ukraine need? Not Europe or Russia, but Ukraine itself? How come that a country with enormous resources - iron ore, coal, and a third of the world's black earth as well as a favourable geopolitical location - has found itself in such a sorry state? Which politician will finally find the courage to admit that the collapse of Ukraine's economy is the collective responsibility of all Ukrainians - and not of any specific political force which carried out its activity in a limited period of time, and that it is time to think what to do next?

Indeed, what is next? Yanukovych said that the "government has fulfilled all its obligations to resolve the situation in Ukraine, but the opposition continues to exacerbate tensions." For the opposition, all proposals coming from the authorities seem to be just a pretext to "close the Maidan"; but the opposition does not want it to be closed, if only because they seemingly have no idea what to do next. If the opposition wins, Ukraine will inevitably be faced with a war for power. If Yanukovych remains in power, he will be up to an endless struggle with the opposition.

Against this background, the Ukrainian military suddenly decided to have their say. A statement published on the website of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reads: "The service personnel and employees of the Armed Forces of Ukraine consider unacceptable the practice of forceful seizure of state institutions, which makes it impossible for officials to perform their duties. They note that further escalation threatens the territorial integrity of the state. In expressing their public stance, the service personnel and employees of the Defense Ministry staff urge the Supreme Commander to take urgent statutory measures to stabilize the situation in the country and to achieve harmony in the society."

It is not for nothing that the developments in Ukraine were dubbed the "Slavic Spring" by analogy with the "Arab spring", and now Kiev can follow the pattern of Cairo, where the responsibility for the situation in the country was assumed by people with epaulettes.