WINTER ESCALATION

In the last 10 days of January the situation along the demarcation line between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces has sharply deteriorated.  The head of the press service of Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defence, Lieutenant-Colonel Vaqif Dargahli, in an interview with the "Trend" agency said that from 21st to 29th January the truce had been violated 1,380 times by the Armenian side. In their turn, Armenian sources asserted that the Azerbaijani forces had opened fire more than 1,500 times. Things came to such a point that Azerbaijan's armoured vehicles and other heavy armaments were moved up to the demarcation line, and aircraft made warning flights along the front.

There were attempts by reconnaissance teams to cross the line, and sniper fire was heard. As a result of these actions, Azerbaijani army officers were killed. Captain Cafarov Elnur Cafar oglu and Colonel-General Zakir Hasanov were posthumously awarded the "For distinguished military service" medal, third degree, for their personal bravery in the line of duty. The Armenians acknowledged that they had lost two servicemen, although Turkish sources stated that their actual losses were much higher. Unfortunately, Azeri civilians were also injured from the Azerbaijan side.

The seriousness of the situation can be seen from the fact that, on the instructions of President Ilham Aliyev, a special meeting was convened at the Ministry of Defence on 28 January, chaired by Prime Minister Artur Rasizada. "The military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan poses the main threat to regional security, and this problem should be resolved on the basis of the UN Security Council resolution," Azerbaijan's defence minister, Zakir Hasanov, stated at a meeting in Baku with Uzbekistan's deputy defence minister, Shavkat Normatov. The minister said that Azerbaijan's army was prepared to go to battle to restore Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and liberate the districts occupied by Armenia.

In his turn, [Armenian President] Serzh Sargsyan and his defence minister, Seyran Ohanyan, continually repeated that they were not expecting the immediate resumption of large-scale military operations, but that they were prepared for any change in circumstances and were not afraid of going to war. That same Seyran Ohanyan was thereby forced to admit that Armenia cannot boast of superiority in numbers of troops and armaments at the present time. It turns out that he is putting his trust in the "unique fighting spirit" of his own army. But independent Armenian experts are publicly expressing doubt about this "superiority". So, the head of the Centre for Regional Studies, Richard Kirakosyan, noted in a commentary on Radio Liberty that up till now "Azerbaijan's army had started to demonstrate unprecedented operational skills, professionalism, improved co-ordination and tactical maneuvers".

In the atmosphere of January's mounting military confrontation a previously scheduled meeting and talks took place in Paris between  Azerbaijan's foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov, and Armenia's foreign minister, Edward Nalbandyan. The co-chairmen of the OSCE [Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe] Minsk Group, Jacques Faure, Igor Popov and James Warlick, attended the meeting, as well as the special representative of the present OSCE chairman, Andrzej Kasprzyk.

Although the only details of the talks at the meeting that were reported were objective, as usual the Armenians tried to stick to discussion of issues linked to ways of investigating the incidents on the demarcation line between the troops, the withdrawal of snipers from frontline positions and the implementation of measures of trust, without tying this up with a settlement of the conflict. In his turn, Azerbaijan's foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov stated that the sooner the Armenian armed forces withdraw from Azerbaijan's territories, the sooner a settlement of the conflict can be achieved within the framework of international law. 

The co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group expressed profound concern over the continuing violence along the demarcation line between the Azerbaijani and Armenian forces. They appealed to the sides to abide by the conditions of the ceasefire agreement completely and unconditionally, after stressing that the recent incidents are undermining the negotiating process and lessening the prospects of peace being achieved. The co-chairmen are planning to visit the region in the next few weeks in order to resume the talks with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. As far as the meeting of the presidents is concerned, in the event of a rapprochement in the positions of the conflicting sides, it may be held in the first half of February in Sochi, behind the scenes of the Winter Olympic Games' opening ceremony.

It remains an open question, as to why a stepping up of military operations has been observed and whether realistic prospects for a peace-orientated dialogue exist in such circumstances. As usual, the Armenians are heaping the blame for this on the Azerbaijani side, asserting that Baku is thereby trying to bring pressure to bear on Armenia and Nagornyy Karabakh and to blackmail the great and regional powers with the threat of war, in an attempt to encourage them to unite in exerting pressure on Yerevan.

The official spokesman of the Azerbaijani president's administration, the head of department on socio-political issues, Ali Hasanov, stated in reply that: "The government of Armenia, in exacerbating the situation on the demarcation line, is trying to distract the population's attention from the tense situation and the complicated socio-economic state of affairs inside the country." Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry has also circulated a statement, in which it says: "In continuing its provocations and threats, Armenia is aiming to make the situation more acute. At the present time, in order to disguise from the international and Armenian public what is going on the frontier, Armenia is taking measures to "establish trust"and  "peace". The statement goes on to note that "the continued occupation by Armenia of Azerbaijani lands is counter to the resolutions of the UN Security Council, the UN Regulations and the norms and principles of international law; that this is the main reason for the further aggravation of the situation and also for the prevention of a peaceful settlement of the conflict and establishing peace in the region. 

Azerbaijan's stance with regard to a settlement of the conflict is quite clear.

It is based on the norms and principles of international law, and also on the UN Security Council resolutions. First and foremost, if the conflict is to be settled, Armenia needs to withdraw its armed forces from the Azerbaijani territories that it has occupied. This is the shortest and most effective way to establish peace and stability in the region." The representatives of the co-chairing countries of the Minsk Group also had their say. Thus, the deputy head of the US State Department's press service, Marie Harf, stated at a briefing that the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict cannot be resolved by the use of force. "We have seen the reports and are sorry about people perishing anywhere, including here. Our position remains as it was previously - that this conflict cannot be resolved by the use of force. We are calling upon all sides to restrain themselves from the use of force or the threat of force,"  Harf said. 

The Russian Foreign Ministry also expressed its concern over the aggravation of the situation in the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict zone. A statement was published on the Russian Foreign Ministry website on 30 January, in which it was noted that, in the event of a further escalation of the tension, "the implementation of the accords reached at the Azerbaijan-Armenian summit in Vienna on 19 November 2013,  might be seriously complicated". The Russian Foreign Ministry called upon the sides in the conflict to adopt additional measures aimed at stabilising the situation, including activating the mechanisms envisaged in the Agreement on boosting the ceasefire regime of 4 February 1995.

No matter how the Armenian authorities and the journalists tried to extract words of condemnation of Azerbaijan and promises of support for the Armenians, they did not manage it. Even the official representative  of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, i.e. the military-political union, of which Armenia is a member, refused to comment on the military operations on the demarcation line between the conflicting sides' armed forces. The commanders of the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri preferred not to say anything either.

Some foreign and local political observers discern a concealed meaning in Moscow's reaction. So, the former adviser to Azerbaijan's president, Vafa Quluzada, clearly stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the peace talks on a settlement in the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict to fail. In a commentary to the local media, he stated,: "Putin sees that he is losing the geopolitical fight with the West in Ukraine and has decided to spite Western interests in other regions, in particular, in Karabakh. But, at the same time, I do not believe that Russia will take more decisive steps in that direction. Russia will not sanction broad-scale military operations in Nagornyy Karabakh before the Winter Olympic Games end in Sochi."      

It cannot be ruled out that Moscow wishes through the Armenians to punish Azerbaijan for distancing itself from Russia's integration projects, and undertaking steps in the last few days towards military integration with the West. I recall that President Ilham Aliyev has made a visit to Brussels and had talks with the NATO secretary-general on deepening bilateral co-operation. An announcement has been made about making Azerbaijani anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems compatible with Turkish systems and also on the purchase of American RLS [rapid light systems] to gain control over the waters and air space of the Caspian. 

However, other experts believe that the situation should not be over-dramatised. Lieutenant-Colonel Uzeyir Cafarov has said that nothing out of the ordinary is happening on the demarcation line between the troops. It is not the first time that one side or the other has reported that a reconnaissance team has tried to enter enemy territory. "Attempts like this have been made before, are being made and will probably be made in the future. It is simply that the Armenian side has thrown its weight behind a mass misinformation campaign over the last few days."      

I think that it is unlikely that the incidents occurring on the demarcation line between the Armenian and Azerbaijani forces will develop into large-scale military operations involving heavy armaments and aggressive maneuvers in winter conditions and especially in mountainous terrain. All sober-thinking and responsible politicians, both in Armenia and in Azerbaijan, realise there is really no alternative to a peaceful settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. The negotiations are however stuck in a rut. The Armenians are trying in every way they can to force the sides to renounce the use of force and to legalise the secession of Nagornyy Karabakh through a referendum, while at the same time leaving the issue of liberating all of Azerbaijan's occupied territories to an indefinite future. This is obviously not in the interests of Baku at all. Therefore the question remains open, whether the Armenians and their patrons have realised that their hopes of inclining Azerbaijan to accept peace on their terms have no prospects or whether they intend to continue the policy of dragging out the talks and preserving the status quo fraught with the risk of returning to the fighting sooner or later? An answer will possibly be gained in February, after the scheduled meeting between presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan in Sochi.