A STRATEGIC DISAPPOINTMENT

Armenia is showing its resentment towards Russia. This time the reason for its resentment and disappointment was the grand parade in Azadliq Square in Baku to mark the 95th anniversary of the foundation of the Azerbaijani National Armed Forces, or to be more precise, not the parade itself but the latest weapons that Azerbaijan has purchased from Russia that were on show.

It will be recalled that in the run-up to the parade it was reported that equipment purchased from Russia on the basis of contracts signed in 2011-12 has begun to arrive in Azerbaijan. These contracts provided for the purchase of three T-90C tank battalions (94 pieces), BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles for approximately three battalions (about 100 pieces), a battalion (18 pieces) of self-propelled howitzers, a battery (18 launchers) of "Smerch" multiple-launch rocket systems (RS30), a battery of "Vena" self-propelled artillery guns and a battery (6 pieces) of TOS-1A "Solntsepek" heavy flame-thrower systems (a new modification of the "Buratino" system).

At first official Yerevan kept silent on the subject of the Russian supplies. But now Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Oganyan has admitted that, yes, the sale of the Russian weapons to Azerbaijan is of concern to Yerevan. Then Yerevan's "gossiping class", i.e. journalists, political analysts, and so on, is showing utter resentment, especially as the details of the "arms deal" were splashed all over the media just as emotions were rising in Armenia following the increase in the price for Russian gas. Yerevan is still acquiring it cheaper than all the rest of Gazprom's commercial partners, but for the Armenian economy it was, nevertheless, a "surprise" they couldn't handle.

Against this backdrop the visit to Armenia of a strong Russian delegation headed by Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev was for Yerevan a convenient pretext for discussing all urgent questions. The media, however, preferred not to comment about Yerevan's concern. They said that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan had discussed with Nikolay Patrushev "a broad range of questions of inter-action between the two states which are strategic allies", regional events and challenges, as well as the current state of the negotiations process on a settlement to the problem of Nagornyy Karabakh. Sargsyan and Patrushev discussed, specifically, the progress of work in enhancing security along the whole length of Armenia's state border with Turkey and Iran, which is being protected by Russian border guards, and also examined questions of updating and re-equipping control points. For their part, Armenia's National Security Council chairman Artur Bagdasaryan and Russian Security Council chairman Nikolay Patrushev discussed questions about setting up an Armenian-Russian regional agency of state reserves.

During his visit to Yerevan Nikolay Patrushev commented on the Russian-Azerbaijani arms deal. He told journalists in Gyumri that any country has the opportunity if it so wishes to acquire weapons from Russia on a legal basis. "You know, Russia trades with all countries, and any country which wishes to do so has the opportunity of purchasing weapons from Russia on a legal basis," Patrushev said.

Of course, the words of the secretary of the Russian Security Council hardly mean there has been a radical change in Russian policy or that the balance of relations with Yerevan and Baku will be reviewed, and so on. Moreover, Armenia remains a member of the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization] and it still enjoys certain privileges when purchasing Russian weapons, etc. But is also just as true that the arms contracts between Moscow and Baku are a clear sign that not all the decisions taken in Moscow proceed exclusively from Yerevan's interests.

And it so happened that at the same time as the "Russian disappointment" Armenia is also experiencing an "Iranian" disappointment. It began when Tehran refused to sell gas to Armenia for the same price that it used to buy gas from Russia. Whether some kind of  "prompting" from Moscow, with whom Tehran did not wish to spoil relations, played a part here, or whether they were guided by the well-known wisdom "it's nothing personal, just business", but Yerevan was not promised any cheaper, or rather gratuitous gas.

Furthermore, during his recent press conference, Iran's ambassador to Armenia Mohammad Reisi spoke very coolly about other joint Iranian-Armenian projects, specifically the construction of the Iran-Armenia railway and power transmission lines. In both instances the Iranian diplomat made it clear that Iran supports these projects and is prepared to do its part of the work as long as Armenia does its, too.

The reaction of the Yerevan political elite was swift. Here they felt that representatives of Iran were speaking to Armenia in not at all the way Yerevan expected them to. The countries remain allies but the IRI does not wish to take upon itself a solution to all Armenia's conceivable and inconceivable problems.

All this points to the fact that this is not a question of some kind of misunderstanding in Armenia's relations with Russia and Iran. The problem goes much deeper. This is a "strategic disappointment", and it is not only and not so much Armenia that is disappointed - much more serious is the fact that the allies are losing their former interest in her, something which, generally speaking, is quite understandable. An Armenia that is sliding into poverty with migration out of control and, if you like, a "subsidized" economy can hardly present great potential interest, especially with a "frozen" conflict with Azerbaijan, a potential one with Georgia and a "smouldering" one with Turkey. This, if we recall, makes three borders out of four. And if we add to that the ever growing poverty and the preponderance of crime… As many experts and analysts are admitting today, an alliance with Armenia is of interest only if this alliance is directed against Azerbaijan and Turkey. And this "friendship against" is all about provoking conflicts and supporting terrorism. Armenia simply doesn't have any other levers, unless you count the scandalous actions of the "Armenian lobby", which is being disowned by all and sundry.

But today such tactics are clearly losing their appeal. And not just in relation to Turkey, which is protected by article 5 of the Washington Treaty. The increase in Azerbaijan's influence and respect in the world is no less evident. And the attempts to put pressure on our country by such primitive means which an alliance with Armenia provides are proving too risky. Armenia's allies have already understood this. It is now up to Yerevan.