IMPROVISATION AND FREEDOM

To the accompaniment of the war in Syria and protests in Brazil and Turkey, residents of Egypt decided, in the words of Mohamed ElBaradei, to "renew" their revolution of 2011. What happened did not surprise anyone. The mass protests against Mohamed Morsi began in January 2013 and at the end of June, the extension of the "Arab Spring" turned into a tough phase - in a few days dozens were killed and hundreds were injured. People who gathered at the world famous Tahrir Square showed that they are willing to die again under the slogan of "Irhal" ("Go away!") and "Tamarrud" ("Rebellion"). Gunshots and explosions from "Molotov cocktails" were heard on the streets of Cairo again. However, fortunately, the revolution of 30 June turned out to be fleeting - on the night of 3-4 July, firecrackers were fired over the capital of Egypt after the army announced the removal of President Mohamed Morsi through General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Later it became known that Morsi was "detained for further action". It is noted that other senior members of Muslim Brotherhood were arrested (300 people) as well. In particular, the head of the Freedom and Justice Party (the political wing of Muslim Brotherhood), Saad el-Katatni, who served as Speaker of Parliament, and the deputy head of Muslim Brotherhood, Rashad Al-Bayoumi, were arrested. The media also reported the arrest of the supreme leader of Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Badie. In addition, the broadcasts of some pro-Islamists channels - Al Hafez, Al Nas and Misr 25 - were immediately suspended in the country.

It was decided that the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court, 68-year-old Adly Mansour, should temporarily take charge of the country. The constitution was suspended - the main document of the country will be reviewed and, most likely, a referendum will be held on a number of items. The immediate challenges facing Mansour are to form a technical government and prepare for early elections. It is also expected that a committee of national unity will be established, which will include the major political and social forces of Egypt.

Mohamed Morsi, who was called "the new Pharaoh", was in power from 17 June 2012, when he defeated General Ahmed Shafik and gained 51% of votes as a result of "the first free democratic elections", as they were called. However, of course, it is impossible to call Morsi a bright politician. Simply, it was a person who suited everyone at some point.

Once in power, the new president vigorously got down to business - he deprived the Egyptian courts of the right to dissolve the upper house of parliament and the Constitutional Assembly, assumed the sole right to publish "any decrees aimed at defending the revolution", strengthened censorship, dismissed many senior military officials and promoted his own people from Muslim Brotherhood to important government posts. At the same time, little was done to rectify the economic distress in the country, which is home to 85 million people and where the unemployment rate has gone beyond the limit, foreign exchange reserves are melting rapidly and there is a growing shortage of grain, fuel and electricity. According to experts quoted by Business FM, if until 2010 the Egyptian economy grew by 5-7% per year, now it falls by 7% per month. Morsi negotiated loans, but did not have time to get them. Also, now a merciless blow is being dealt even to such a solid article of the Egyptian state budget as the tourist business.

However, despite all this, Morsi did not immediately agree to resign, saying he would stand up to the military action, which he described as a "coup". Now the former president is trying to form a coalition government and called for the creation of an independent commission to amend the constitution. The main argument of Morsi was that he came to power in a democratic procedure. It did not help. If we believe the media reports, millions of Egyptians took to the streets to protest against the president who has now been deposed. Morsi did not get support from abroad either - US President Barack Obama urged the head of Egypt to demonstrate willingness to meet the demands of the demonstrators. The protesters attacked the homes and offices of Muslim Brotherhood, and at the main office in the metropolitan area of Muqattam, they started a real gunfight and wanted only one thing - the resignation of the president. An ultimatum to Morsi, who was accused of an authoritarian style of government and an attempt to establish Islamic rule, was put forward by both the opposition and the military command. The generals clearly promised not to spare their blood to protect the people of Egypt from "terrorists, radicals, and fools". As a result, Morsi suffered the same fate as the former President Hosni Mubarak, who was ousted on 12 February 2011. However, it would be wrong to compare the overthrow of Morsi with the departure of Mubarak. In its modern history, Egypt has seen many coups and street fights.

Meanwhile, the EU, the UN and other members and organizations of the international community urged Egyptians "to return to the democratic process" as quickly as possible. "Democracy should be the outcome of events. Otherwise, it would be a betrayal of the "Arab Spring," the authoritative publication The Times wrote. When Morsi says that he came to power in a democratic procedure, he is not lying. And so it is not clear what to do if free elections lead to the victory of the radicals (in fact Egypt is not the only example here, take the Palestinian Authority). It is impossible to put up with the innovations of the radicals, but it is undemocratic to use force every time...

Egypt's ambassador to the United States, Mohamed Tawfik, said in an interview with Foreign Policy that there was no coup in his country because the military did not take power. "It is not the military that initiated these events, it was a popular uprising. And the military intervened in order to prevent violence," Tawfik emphasizes. According to many, the army in Egypt seeks to maintain its independent status, is not trying to get into politics, and therefore it will need a "cover" from the ranks of the civil opposition, for which it is a chance. Thus, the military in Egypt see their task in maintaining stability in the country. But stability cannot be ensured with an iron hand for a long time. Stability is ensured only by social and economic changes, and no one clearly says how they should be carried out.

Another question is whether Muslim Brotherhood will surrender so quickly. They remember very well that they were suppressed under Mubarak, and not only. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad called attempts to oust his Egyptian counterpart "the collapse of the idea of political Islam". But is it true? The past of Muslim Brotherhood has more than a dozen years and a long history, which include a fight against communists, a confrontation with modernists and nationalists, cooperation with foreigners, carefully planned campaigns of terror, and more. That is to say the "Brothers" are warriors hardened in fighting and skilled in intrigue. The Islamic Alliance for Egypt has already accused the army of attacking the legitimate government and called on its supporters to take to the streets. Pro-presidential activists have already clashed with the police and opposition supporters - in Cairo, Alexandria, Mersa Matruh and Minya, and at least 32 are reported dead.

There is a force that is not subject to scrutiny, but is nevertheless much more real than the military and Muslim Brotherhood - it is the protesters themselves. Looking at photos on social networks and news wires, we see strong and courageous faces and burning eyes. The revolution in the minds of many is full of romanticism, is shrouded in vows and ideals and is imbued with a taste of camaraderie and fight for something bright. But is it true? Who, for example, are these millions of protesters in the Egyptian capital? Intellectuals? Students? Representatives of trade unions and workers? Unemployed? Liberals? Housewives? Socialists? Political activists and lawyers? Journalists? What connects them to each other? Maybe a clear vision of the future of Egypt? Or does someone have a plan to get the country out of the severe economic crisis? Previously, these people hated Mubarak, now they have removed the Islamists, but do they trust the military?

Thus, the most important and most mysterious player in revolutionary Egypt is the same crowds on the streets. It is doubtful that millions (up to 17 million!) citizens are all consumed with a single idea, not least because there is no strong, unifying opposition leader in Egypt. It is also doubtful that all their protests are organized through the Internet and social networks. Most likely, many of the protesters joined in simply because there is nothing else to do. As noted above, unemployment in Egypt is booming and many young people are out of work. There is nothing to do at home. It is hot at home. There is nothing to eat at home. It is boring at home. And it is interesting outside. It seems that there is a chance outside. But then, on the one hand, the power of this crowd is uncontrollable, and on the other - it can be directed anywhere. After all, the crowd, in fact, does not care against whom they protest and whose departure they demand.

Whoever comes to power in Egypt, this figure will have to face a lot of difficulties. And still there will be a lot of unhappy people. The forces that were in an induced coma for many years under Mubarak have now woken up and are demanding their own way.