ROUHANI'S VICTORY IN IRAN IS IN USA'S INTEREST

People the world over watched the Iranian election with great attention. The global geopolitical situation greatly depends on the situation in and around Iran. Despite the fact that nobody expects major changes in Iran's foreign policies, including its nuclear policy, Hassan Rouhani's election as the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been met with home that this will lead to an easing of the current tension in Iran's relations with the West. The Moscow Times analyst Michael Bohm, like the majority of other analysts, is optimistic about the future prospects.

- How does the USA view Hassan Rouhani's election as the Iranian president? Are there expectations that this will lead to a warming in the US-Iran relations?

- As far as the USA is concerned, Rouhani is the best presidential candidate and his victory was well received in the USA. Washington had feared that a radical candidate like Rezai or Jalili would win in the election. Compared to them, Rouhani is a moderate politician. As they say, the president-elect is the lesser of the two evils. Obviously, nobody can predict what will happen in reality. There are absolutely no grounds to assume that it will be possible to achieve a breakthrough in Iran's nuclear programme issue. However, I assume that Rouhani's coming to power will not lead to further exacerbation in the relations between the Islamic Republic and the West. He will pursue a softer policy compared to Ahmadinejad. Any military means of resolving the Iranian nuclear programme can be ruled out completely. The coming years will see the continuation of the endless games between the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Iran government. Iran needs to win time. To a certain extent, the USA participates in this game, pretending that something is actually being resolved during these negotiations. However, Washington has limited capacities. It can exert pressure on international organizations but all this is senseless. Iran is winning time and there is no end to these negotiations. The status-quo can be perpetuated until the nuclear weapons are actually manufactured.

- Rouhani said that it is now too late to stop the uranium enrichment. What can the USA do if it suddenly transpires that Iran is just a footstep away from having nuclear weapons?

- If Barack Obama remains in power by that time, he will capitalize on the fact that Iran is a participant in the Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty. If irrefutable evidence emerges that Iran is preparing nuclear weapons the matter will be advanced to a new political level - the UN Security Council. The USA will use levers of international pressure on Iran as a country that violates the Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty. This is a difficult process and Obama has no other means. I would say there is no chance that the USA will launch a military campaign against Iran, even if the Republicans come to power. Things however may take a different turn if, for example, something happens in Iran itself…

- Something like the Syrian scenario?

- Of course the USA will pretend it is not concerned with this. However, under certain circumstances, Washington could become involved in Iran's internal confrontation.

- Such as, creating a safe zone and providing help to rebels…

- Yes, the crisis will be used as a pretext for attaining political aims…

- Are there any political forces in Iran on which the USA is counting on as allies?

- The Iranian authorities are maintaining a tough control in the country. There is no such thing as radical opposition there. Yes, there were large-scale protests in 2009 but these were suppressed. Therefore, we cannot assume that the USA can have potential allies within Iran. 

In principle, it is possible that certain warming will take place in the Iran-US ties. Nevertheless, how these relations will develop depends on the resolution of Iran's nuclear programme issue.

- Heads of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries recently made a statement regarding the Karabakh settlement. However, so far there is nothing specific to suggest that the US administration is seriously committed to the resolution of this conflict…

- The Karabakh conflict is certainly an important issue that needs to be addressed. However, the global leaders currently tend to make decisions that flare up conflicts. The USA is interested in large-scale conflicts, such as the one in Syria in which about 90,000 were killed. There are many large-scale conflicts in the world which simply cannot be ignored. A US State Department agency is dealing with the Karabakh conflict and then reports to President Obama on the progress.

On the other side, the USA is involved in the settlement process because Russia is involved in it. I mean, it is possible to win scores in the competition with Russia. The top priority issue on the agenda of the US-Russian relations is currently the reduction of nuclear weapons. It is possible that advancing the settlement process will make it possible to expand the list of peacekeeping countries. It is possible to get Germany and a number of other countries involved, the way this happened in the case of the Middle Eastern conflicts.

- European countries expres-sed their support to the Nabucco gas pipeline project. Are there grounds to assume that the issue of the construction of the gas pipeline will gain momentum?

- Europeans need Nabucco in order to decrease their dependence on Russian gas. Europeans doubt Russia's reliability as a partner. From this viewpoint, the Nabucco gas pipeline is an alternative option for the EU but at the same time, it is unlikely that Europe will say no Russian gas. The problem for Nabucco is the gas resources. The implementation of the project depends on how fast it will be possible to attract Central Asian countries to become involved in the project.

Incidentally, as well as energy cooperation, the USA is interested in weapons sales to Azerbaijan. The USA is now closely following reports about an agreement on Russia's sales of 1 billion dollar weapons to Azerbaijan. This is a lot of money. This agreement testifies to a significant rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Russia. Naturally, the USA also wants to supply military equipment to Azerbaijan.