A RELIGIOUS CENTRIST FIGURE HAS BECOME PRESIDENT OF IRAN

Unlike the 2009 elections, which developed into a fierce struggle between the so-called "conservatives" and "reformers", when the then prime minister, Ahmadinejad, was eventually declared the winner, the current 11th presidential elections in Iran on the surface passed calmly.  The leaders of the reformist "Green Movement", Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, have been under house arrest for four years. Many of their supporters have ended up in jail and been subjected to violence. None of the reformers was allowed to take part in the elections. Indeed, in accordance with current legislation in Iran, all the presidential candidates must pass through the strainer of the Guardian Council, which is under the direct control of the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei. As a result, out of 868 candidates only eight were selected. Among those excluded were two charismatic and influential candidates: ex-President Rafsanjani and his close relative and associate Mashai, who was supported by the incumbent President Ahmadinejad.

In the current situation many local and foreign observers favoured the conservative candidates - the present chairman of the IRI National Security Council, Said Jalili, and the influential Mayor of Tehran Bager Qalibaf. It was assumed that they would be tacitly supported by Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. But, as events proved, these predictions were superficial and did not take into account the whole complex scale of relations within the Iranian ruling elite.

The over-intensification of the conservative political wing created risks not only for the regime, but also for the supreme leader as the super-arbiter of the Iranian elite. President Ahmadinejad's rigid confrontational policy enabled the uranium enrichment programme to be pushed forward and the Bushehr nuclear power station to be launched, and also helped to put down the signs of freedom in the way the population was carrying out "Islamic norms". But at the same time inner tension had built up in Iran. The country had found itself in international isolation and western sanctions had led to serious financial and economic difficulties. While possessing immense reserves of oil and gas, Iran has been unable to attract the investments and western technology needed to extract them. Inflation had reached 30-40% and the devaluation of the local currency, the rial, was carried out on an even larger scale. People's living standards have been reduced and unemployment has risen. A pragmatic alteration of course by the IRI government was required both internationally and domestically.

There was another important factor which no-one in Iran mentioned publicly but which many probably had in mind. This was the question of the successor of the IRI's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who will be 75 next year and who, rumours say, has serious health problems. It was Khamenei who in his post of president replaced Ayatollah Khomeyni as the spiritual leader and supreme leader of the IRI. Clearly, his successor must meet certain criteria, and that means belonging to a religious corporation and being a middle-ground and centrist figure, and at the same time having great state and political experience. Hassan Rouhani ideally meets all these requirements and it is not surprising that he was Khamenei's favourite at the elections.

The support of ex-presidents Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Mohammed Khatami, who still have considerable influence in the country and are the unspoken leaders of the block of moderate and reform politicians, was not enough for their candidate to capture the required number of votes for victory in the first round. Be that as it may, Hassan Rouhani triumphed and this event was celebrated by the Iranian people, first and foremost the young and the intelligentsia, who have grown tired of the rigid repressive rule of the conservatives. Hassan Rouhani's election was also received positively worldwide. So, who is this seventh president of the IRI?

Many media publications and analysts, without backing up their arguments, describe Rouhani as a reformer and a liberal, even though in his own past political career and in the course of the presidential campaign, he did and said nothing to justify such epithets. Rouhani is more of a cautious and moderate centrist politician, like Rafsanjani than a liberal reformer. He belongs exclusively to the Iranian religious-political establishment and he views any changes in the country only within the confines of the existing Islamic system.

Unlike the last administration of President Ahmadinejad, Rouhani favours a constructive continuation of the talks on Iran's nuclear problem and believes that the European leaders can be depended upon on in this question. He intends to achieve a lifting of the international sanctions against Iran. Hassan Rouhani has said that he will kick-start the negotiations process with the "six" (USA, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany). He claims that Tehran's uranium enrichment programme has been basically implemented and a return to the past is no longer possible. Iran does not deny that it is enriching uranium up to 20% at the "Fordo" enterprise, but exclusively for use at the Tehran Medical Reactor. Rouhani is prepared to have talks but not about Iran's rejection of the uranium enrichment programme, but only in the context of ensuring transparency of work to be carried out and the appropriate monitoring by the IAEA in order to dispel any real or imaginary fears about its military direction. 

As far as domestic policy is concerned, Rouhani is laying emphasis on releasing economic life from rigid state control and excess regulatory activity. If elected president, Rouhani promised to draw up a "Charter of Civil Freedoms", to reduce the harshness of repressive actions against individuals whose behaviour is classified as non-compliant with Islamic norms. However, the question of the release of Mousavi, which was put to him at his first press-conference after his election victory, remained unanswered.

The Iranian population's positive reaction to Rouhani's election as president has already been noted above. A sign of hope following the announcement of the preliminary results of the elections was the 9% increase in the exchange rate of the rial against the dollar, which points to a growth in confidence among financial and economic circles. The reaction of the international media and western politicians has also been positive. The US president's press secretary, Jay Carney, said that "the US is ready to contact the Iranian government directly in order to reach a diplomatic solution which will fully meet the concerns of the international community regarding Iran's nuclear programme".

Leading diplomatic representatives of the western countries (Britain and Germany) and those involved in the negotiations in which Rouhani participated claim that they can do business with him. Hassan Rouhani, unlike his predecessor in the post of president, has lived for a long time in Europe, and speaks English and French. However, before the resumption of a dialogue on the nuclear question, a test of the possibility of a normalization of Iran's relations with the West could be the conflict, or more precisely, the civil war in Syria, in which Tehran supports the Bashar Assad regime, and literally the other day he announced the transfer of another 4,000 Hezbollah militants to help him.

The problems of Iran's nuclear programme and the IRI's confrontation with the West are important because they also project on the South Caucasus region. But even more important for us is the question as to what effect Rouhani's election as president will have on Iranian-Azerbaijani relations. Not everything has been smooth in this respect in recent years. One after another there have been incidents which have only been resolved with great difficulty. The volume of mutual trade has reduced, as has the level and intenseness of a political dialogue. From time to time IRI politicians, statesmen and religious figures make unacceptable statements about Azerbaijan and its leaders and organize negative propagandist campaigns in the media.

According to a report of the Iranian arrannews website, Hassan Rouhani noted in one of his election speeches that Azerbaijan, in order to avoid problems with the West, has cut itself off from Iran and is turning into a source of threat to the IRI. He apparently accused Azerbaijan of "inciting ethnic disunity" in Iran. Rouhani called for the situation in Turkey and Azerbaijan to be closely monitored and for "measures" to be taken on the borders with these countries. It is hard to judge the authenticity of this information, but IRI's ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mohsun Pak Ayin, noted in an interview with ANS, that "Rouhani has a good knowledge of Iranian politics. In foreign policy we attach great importance to relations with Azerbaijan. Special relations must be developed with Azerbaijan. I believe that good relations with neighbouring countries will provide our country with protection and security."

Baku is in favour of maintaining neighbourly and mutually advantageous relations with Iran. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was one of the first to congratulate Hassan Rouhani on his election to the post of President of Iran. "I attach great importance to relations between the Azerbaijani Republic and the Islamic Republic of Iran, a source of which is the will of our peoples who have historically lived in conditions of neighbourliness and friendship. Our peoples are also united by common spiritual values and traditions and mutual trust and confidence which have stood the test of time. I am confident that in accordance with the interests of our countries and peoples we will make joint efforts for the further successful development of our inter-state relations and cooperation both bilaterally and multilaterally, which have been built on a lasting basis," his message says.

It may be hoped that the reduction in tension around Iran as a result of the more flexible and middle-ground policy of the new president Rouhani will reduce the unnecessary and ill-founded suspicions about Baku and will have a positive effect on both Azerbaijani-Iranian relations and on the situation in the region.