FIRST AMONG EQUALS

Citizens of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) will very soon go to the polls to elect the seventh head of the executive authorities - president of their country.

By the decision of the Council of Guardians of the Constitution (the Supervising Council), just a total of eight candidates, chosen out of 686 hopefuls, will compete for the post of president of the country. Three candidates that are referred to as reformist politicians were eventually shortlisted. These are former First Vice-President of the IRI, Mohammad Reza Aref; former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and former negotiator with the P5+1 on Iran's nuclear programme, Hasan Rowhani; and the former minister of post and telegraph, Seyyed Mohammad Gharazi, about the victory of which people are very sceptical. 

One more candidate is Mohsen Reza'i, the head of the Expediency Council under the Supreme Leader, who is regarded as a centrist conservative.  He is the only candidate that presented an election manifesto that contains a serious section on the economy: regionalization of the economy and intensification of agricultural production.

Also shortlisted were four candidates that are absolute supporters of the incumbent political regime and are especially close to the country's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i: former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati; Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf; Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Sa'id Jalili, and former chairman of parliament Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel. Analysts believe that one of these four will be elected president of the country.

At the same time, it is believed that Tehran Mayor Qalibaf, who gained 14 per cent of votes in the presidential election in 2005, stands the best chances. After he was elected mayor of Tehran in September 2005, the infamous Evin prison was removed from the capital to give room to a recreational park. Over the years of his work on the post of mayor of Tehran, Qalibaf reformed public service, introduced 380 district councils in the city and attracted private capital to the development of infrastructure. His popularity is also promoted by the fact that on the post of mayor he combined conservatism and Islamic outlook with an understanding of the need for reform. It should be noted that current President Ahmadinezhad made his way to the presidential chair from the post of mayor of Tehran.

In the meantime, Velayati enjoys certain popularity in the country and also stands good chances of victory. Back when he was the country's foreign minister he spoke about the importance of diplomatic relations with all countries of the world without exception. Most probably, Velayati, who is an ethnic Azeri, is popular because of the many millions of Azeri voters in Iran, whose position can make a considerable impact on the election results. In this context, it is unlikely that the statement Tehran Mayor Qalibaf made during his visit to Tabriz in mid-May was a coincidence. He asked his audience the rhetorical question: "Why Azerbaijan, which was lavish in its selflessness and self-sacrifice for Iran in different periods of history, is suffering discrimination and injustice today? Why is Azerbaijan being artificially held behind the provinces that started their development after it and do not have the capabilities and talents that Azerbaijan has? Azerbaijan, which brought to Iran the first school of art nouveau, typography, theatre and magazine, has today become the first one in terms of discrimination and injustice." This statement can be regarded as a political gesture of reverence towards both the many millions of Azeri voters in Iran, and the country's Supreme Leader Khamene'i.

The most intriguing moment ahead of the election was that the Council of Guardians of the Iranian Constitution refused to include on the list of candidates for the post of president the two heavyweight politicians: the country's former president, Hashemi-Rafsanjani, and former aide to President Ahmadinezhad and his close ally and relative, Masha'i. Although the Supervising Council does not have to comment on its decisions, it let it be understood that Hashemi-Rafsanjani was barred because of his advanced age (78). In addition, according to Tehran, he enjoys the support of no more than 10 per cent of voters because during his presidency the poor became even poorer and the rich became even richer.

According to some experts, there are more serious why Rafsanjani was barred. Even before the decision of the Supervising Council was made public, media controlled by Ayatollah Khamene'i had carried reports accusing Rafsanjani of organizing the riots during the previous presidential election "to an order from Americans and the Zionists". The reports suggest that this time round, too, he masterminded riots aiming to undermine the influence of the rahbar (leader) - this time in collusion with President Ahmadinezhad and his protege Masha'i, who, as most analysts argue, suffered a failure because of his reformist ideas. Masha'i  advocates a re-distribution of powers in favour of president because he finds it unfair that that the clergy has a greater power. In addition, two years ago he incited President Ahmadinezhad to an unsuccessful attempt to cut part of the powers of the clergy, thus causing a strong dissatisfaction on the part of the clerics who did not want to say goodbye to their controlling functions in society. Ahmadinezhad has been promoting Masha'i in the past few years. Although he said he intended to fight till the end for Masha'i's inclusion in the list, this subject did not develop any further. The list of candidates did not get Mohammad Khatami, another heavyweight and popular politician, reformist and former president. But here things are a bit different. At the end of March 2013, according to the results of a survey conducted on the website of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) on the topic "politician of the year", Khatami gained 60 per cent of votes and took the first place, whereas Rafsanjani came third with 9 per cent. However, already in the course of preparations for the election, Khatami himself called on his supporters to give their votes to Rafsanjani who did not dispute the decision of the Supervising Council to bar him from the election.

Analysts believe that regardless of the results of the vote, Tehran's position on key issues of foreign and domestic policy, including continuation of its nuclear programme, will not see considerable changes and the future president will have to - in a frantic manner - tackle economic problems and negotiate with the 5+1 and the IAEA on the nuclear programme and also uphold Iran's claims to the role of a regional superpower.

In this respect, Rowhani is considered to be a more moderate politician. In his address to students of Tehran University, he said: "Some think that we must fight the whole world. Others believe that we must capitulate. However, there is a third option, too - constructive cooperation. We must go together with the rest of the world based on our national interests." Former Foreign Minister Velayati has almost the same approach. It cannot be ruled out that this is sort of a message to Washington.

However, the statement by Patrick Ventrell of the US Department of State that Iran barred from running in the election the hopefuls that could truly represent not the regime's interests but the interests of the Iranian people testifies to the fact that Washington retains its tough position. It cannot be ruled that the new bill that was introduced to the US Congress on 22 May by the Republican senators Mark Kirk and John Cornyn and envisages even tougher sanctions against Iran is linked to the decision of the Supervising Council of the Guards of the Iranian Constitution.

But politics is a variable. Although at a great pinch, one can still assume that rhetoric in the new Iranian president's communication with the West will be more constructive. As a result of that, statements by the opposing side may also become less tough. However, it will very soon be clear in what vein events will develop. And the final say in this issue remains with Iranian voters.