"EUROPEAN DREAMS" AND "RUSSIAN" REALITIES

Nobody expected any major political sensations from the conference of heads of government of the CIS countries that finished in Minsk at the end of May - political decisions are, as a rule, taken at the summits of heads of state and not government. Nor did one expect any breakthroughs in the Yerevan-Moscow "political direction". The previous day Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan did not attend an unofficial meeting of the heads of the member-states of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) in Bishkek. Then he failed to show up in Astana where the meeting of the heads of the member-states of the Customs Union was being held, although Armenia has observer status in this organization. In Yerevan the president's absence was explained as follows: Armenia is celebrating its state holiday - First Republic Day - and on that day the president has to be in his own country. However, many experts believed this was a political move and the Armenian president was taking umbrage against Russia for increasing its prices for the Russian gas his country was purchasing and which has indeed created serious problems for the Armenian economy and its meagre reserves of strength.

But it was in fact the "premiers" meeting in Minsk which provided a real sensation. As reported by the Russian government's official website, to which the Yerevan news agencies also allude, as part of the session of the Council of heads of government of the CIS member-states there took place a meeting of the Prime Ministers of Armenia and Russia, Tigran Sarkisyan and Dmitriy Medvedev. They discussed bilateral trade and economic relations and questions of the integration processes in the CIS, including within the framework of the Customs Union. "Our meeting is taking place in the CIS format. We have also discussed questions concerning the Customs Union and integration processes in general. Generally speaking, Armenia wants to take part in these integration processes. We also think that it is important, even vital to find a format that is necessary for proper cooperation," Dmitriy Medvedev said during the talks. And the Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan noted: "Our position is clear, of that there can be no doubt, and the presidents of our countries have also been discussing this subject. Now we have to resolve questions at a technical level and how quickly and what steps we will take to move forward." The Armenian prime minister added that he and his Russian counterpart "had signed two protocols, clarified the range and list of tasks and defined our future steps".

It will be recalled that Moscow invited Yerevan to join the Customs Union and then the EurAsian Union several months ago. But this idea clearly did not evoke the anticipated delight from the authorities of the country which has openly been dubbed "Russia's historical ally" and even "outpost". Moreover, Yerevan, to Moscow's displeasure, started talking about its "European prospects" and "foreign political complementarism".  At the same time Armenia's Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan, who in one of his interviews said that for Armenia, which has no common border with any state in the Customs Union, there was no point in joining this organization, is reckoned to be the most firm opponent of that country's joining the Customs Union.

But now it is Tigran Sarkisyan himself who is calling for the speediest preparation of some kind of memorandum and Yerevan has qualified this statement by the prime minister as an expression of Armenia's readiness to join the Customs Union. And this statement, by all accounts, proved to be a complete surprise not only to Yerevan's parapolitical glitterati, but also for Russian diplomats accredited to Yerevan. In any event, Russia's new ambassador to Armenia, Ivan Volynkin, replying to journalists' questions about a meeting between Sarkisyan and Medvedev in Minsk, was forced to admit: "I can't say what kind of memorandum is being referred to." And although the diplomat confirmed that the process is developing and the countries should coordinate their legislation so that no problems arise from joining the EurAsian Union, and so on, this did not add any clarity to the situation. For his part, the Armenian prime minister's press secretary, Arutyun Berberyan, explained to Armenia's Radio "Liberty": "Armenia is in a special situation in that it has no common borders with the member-countries of the Customs Union, and this is also recognized by the Russian side. In this situation it is merely a question of finding a mutually acceptable format of cooperation between Armenia and the Customs Union." And it is very probable that such a format will be found. At the end of the day Armenia is also joining the CSTO, although this has no outlet to the sea or a long border with any of the member-states of this union. There can be no doubt that Tigran Sarkisyan's comments about the preparation of some kind of "integration memorandum" mean that Yerevan has reaffirmed its foreign political orientation towards an alliance with Russia. Here, it would seem, "complementarism" and "European prospects" have been put on the back burner, if not discarded altogether.

However, as many experts warned when Yerevan was talking about an "independent foreign policy" in response to an invitation from Moscow to join the Customs Union, Armenia scarcely had or has any real chances for the proverbial diversification of its foreign policy. Because Russia controls many things here: the railways, mobile communications, the gas and electricity networks…There is nothing about "complementarism" here. And in reality Yerevan's aims were much more down to earth - here they were simply trying to sell their signature to the agreement on joining the Customs Union more dearly. And, if they are lucky, to bargain stabilization credit from the European Union.

Of course, there is a theory that the increase in gas prices was a kind of "watershed moment", after which no doubts remained: Moscow no longer intends to make any "economic" gifts to Yerevan. Moreover, Tigran Sarkisyan himself told journalists outright two weeks ago that Armenia was buying Russian gas at a higher price than, for example, Belarus, because for countries that are not in the CU, there is a 30% export tax on gas. But it is more likely that the reports about new types of Russian weapons being supplied to military base No 102 in Gyumri played a more important part in the confirmation of Yerevan's political orientation. And these are not only new Russian navigators or mobile control points for air-defence weapons, but also serious weapons such as the latest "Tornado" salvo-fire systems and "Iskander-M" tactical ballistic missile systems. Officially, of course, these weapons are in the possession of the Russian military base and not the Armenian armed forces, but Yerevan is talking about these new weapons as if they have already been "donated" to Armenia.

And in this context one key point remains open:  how do the "Iskanders" at the base in Gyumri tie in with Russia's status as a mediator and a co-chair of the Minsk Group of the OSCE on a settlement to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia?