RELAXATION OF TENSION

Another round of talks between experts from Iran and the "six" international mediators has taken place in Vienna. In the opinion of the foreign minister of the Islamic Republic, Javad Zarif, if there is good will, a treaty on a final solution of the Tehran nuclear programme issue may be drawn up with the interested sides by the end of July this year.

The situation surrounding Iran really is undergoing a certain lessening of tension. And, in this sense, a whole series of factors and circumstances point to a basis for the hopes expressed by the Iranian foreign minister.

The statement by the president of the Islamic Republic, Hassan Rouhani, at the session of the Iranian Defence Ministry should be considered to indicate this. Rouhani said that Iran is neither developing a nuclear weapon because of moral principles, nor because international accords forbid it. Previously, Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, especially dwelt on the ethical components of this issue. The fatwa published by him forbids the production of a nuclear weapon in the country, because the existence of one is a sin. 

It is not the first time that the Iranian leaders have come out with such statements. But, in the current circumstances, characterised by obvious progress towards a peaceful settlement of the Iranian problem, the assurances of official Tehran that they are not producing a nuclear weapon is of particular significance. These assurances are called upon to convince the world that Tehran's nuclear programme is not a military one and is exclusively of a peaceful nature. 

In the West people are increasingly inclined to think that at the present stage Iran does not pose a threat as a country that is potentially close to creating an atomic bomb. Recently US President Barack Obama, when mentioning the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] inspections, expressed satisfaction that Tehran had already started to eliminate part of the enriched uranium that it possesses. Obama said that he was convinced that Iran was not creating an atomic bomb.

Thus, it may be counted on that the accord reached in Geneva in November last year on the partial suspension of the nuclear programme's implementation in exchange for an easing of the sanctions regime imposed on that country may quite logically be continued. The outcome of this may be the possible conclusion of an all-embracing agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the "six" (the USA, the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China, Great Britain, France and Germany) in the next few months.

At the same time, Iran is already reaping the benefits of a certain easing of the sanctions regime. At the Gulfood fair held in Dubai at the end of February, 46 Iranian companies exporting non-oil products set out their stalls. This means roughly double last year's amounts of Iranian goods were on display at a prestigious fair. Therefore experts are drawing the conclusion that Iran is making a partial return to the global trade network.

Moreover, Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, has submitted a proposal to the country's Defence Ministry that it should export Iranian defence industry goods. He said that arms exports are important from the point of view of strengthening ties with other states. Rouhani was essentially stating once again that Iran needs to be more active in world trade, in every possible direction moreover. This testifies to the prospects for Tehran to overcome international isolation, which is evidenced by the increasingly frequent visits to the Islamic Republic by Western politicians and entrepreneurs. For example, Iran has recently been visited by the Italian, Swedish, Spanish and Belgian foreign ministers who expressed the interest of their countries in forging close economic co-operation with the Islamic Republic of Iran. 

In the context of the expanding dialogue between the West and Iran, the example set by France is highly indicative; until quite recently France was obviously trying to hinder the achievement of accords with Iran, but it is now trying faster than others to consolidate its positions on the co-operation platform with Tehran. A delegation of French businessmen, which included representatives of major companies like the oil company Total, the machine-building firm Alstom, the car producer Renault and the telecommunications firm Orange, has visited the Islamic Republic. The visit was organised by MEDEF, the French Business Confederation. French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici has spoken openly about the prospects for co-operation with the Islamic Republic, saying that if the situation were to change, France would be expecting to find considerable  commercial opportunities in Iran.

Relations between the Islamic Republic and the United States are tending to be interesting. Although Washington is not prepared to give up the practice of imposing unilateral sanctions on Tehran (what is more, President Barack Obama stated that he is prepared to come down heavily on companies from different countries that are failing to observe the sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran), it is pursuing its intention not to allow a stepping up of the anti-Iranian restrictions, so as to avoid hampering the negotiating process in the "6+1" format. Besides this, Washington is sending the Islamic Republic signals testifying not only to its willingness to develop bilateral co-operation with it, but also to take into account its interests in regional affairs. Thus, according to reports put out by a number of world media, the American Administration is bringing pressure to bear on Tel-Aviv, demanding that it take a less hard-line position with regard to Iran and in particular stop the attempts on the lives of Iranian nuclear scientists.

In this connection, one considerable difference in the positions of the current US Administration and the government of Israel with regard to Iran's nuclear programme is noteworthy. President Obama has repeatedly recognised Iran's right to a peaceful nuclear programme, while firmly asserting that it is opposed to Iran having a nuclear weapon. But the government of [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as the leading organisations in the Jewish diaspora in the USA, are in general opposed to Iran developing any kind of nuclear technologies.

Moreover, it is increasingly evident that Washington's interests in Tehran are still being stimulated by the Americans' striving to exploit the Iraq factor in the West's big game against third countries. For example, against Russia, with which relations with the USA and Europe have considerably deteriorated against the backdrop of events in Ukraine. To all appearances, the West is not ruling out allowing Iran to supply its  energy resources to European markets as another lever for bringing pressure to bear on Russia, which is the main supplier of gas to Europe at the present time. For Russia this would be an extremely undesirable variant, especially in conditions, where economic sanctions really will be imposed on it by the Western powers. 

It is no less important that Iran is becoming an increasingly attractive player to the USA and the European Union in the Middle East, which is being partially subjected to a state of never-ending wars and chaotic uncertainties with the assistance of those same Western countries. Moreover forces have emerged on the surface of the military and political realities in the region, which are acting under the slogans of jihad against the West. This has clearly been shown by the events in Syria, which has been in the grips of a civil war for three years now. It is precisely for the reason that these jihadists are the only alternative to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, that the USA and Europe have largely toned down their policy towards official Damascus. At the same time, the West is forced to take into account and give Iran its due as a force representing a counter balance to radical Islam. 

In all the cunningly entwined geopolitics surrounding Iran, the main trend that is becoming increasingly prominent is the mutual interest of the West and the Islamic Republic in resolving the "nuclear dispute"; the intrigue is the following: will Tehran eventually be able to convince the USA and its European allies not only that it is not seeking to obtain a nuclear weapon, but that Iran does not in principle pose a threat to them from a strategic point of view? Or will the West go on doubting the Islamic Republic, even if it is only because it is of advantage in justifying its hegemonic presence in the Middle East and for using the argument that there is an "Iranian threat" of attack on the interests of other centres of strength?