PUTIN'S "HIKIBAKE"

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has visited Russia for the first time in 10 years. The media have particularly focussed on the impressive retinue that the visitor from the Land of the Rising Sun has brought with him. The media pointed out his busy schedule and the fact that the head of the Japanese government had been received by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his private apartments in the Kremlin. Russian experts are of the opinion that this indicates the exceptional importance of this visit for both sides.

The join statement made by Putin and Abe following the meeting particularly attracted international attention: the leaders of the two countries "expressed their resoluteness" to sign a peace treaty 67 years after World War II ended. At the moment, a Cessation of Warfare Declaration exists between Japan and Russia, which can only come into force after a peace treaty has been concluded. The officials in Tokyo have refused to do this up to the present day, demanding that the four islands of the Southern Kuriles - Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai - which the Japanese consider to be their islands, should be returned to them first.

Russia insists that the Kurile Islands became part of the USSR at the end of the Second World War, that this is enshrined in the corresponding international treaties, about which there can be no doubt. At the same time, Japan is claiming the four islands of the Kurile ridge, citing an 1855 agreement. This is the Simod Treaty, a Russo-Japanese agreement on friendship, trade and borders, signed by Vice-Admiral Ye. V. Putyanin and the Japanese plenipotentiary Tosiakira Kavadzi. This first diplomatic agreement between the two countries was called upon to promote the establishment of "lasting peace and true friendship between Russia and Japan". The islands of Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and the group of Habomai islands were transferred to Japan, and everything north of Iturup was proclaimed Russian territory. Sakhalin remained under the joint control of both countries. This was advantageous to Russia which continued to colonise it at a time when Japan could not compete with it in a worthy manner owing to absence of a fleet. Later on, however, the question of Sakhalin's sovereignty did arise. This was resolved by the conclusion of the St. Petersburg Treaty, according to which Russia ceded  all the Kurile Islands to Japan in exchange for complete sovereignty over Sakhalin.

In 1905, when Russia suffered defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, in accordance with the ?Portsmouth Peace Treaty, it lost the southern part of Sakhalin. The situation continued like that until 1945. It is noteworthy that joint declaration of the USSR and Japan in 1956 envisaged the transfer to Japan of the islands of Habomai and Shikotan on condition that the Japanese would renounce their claims to the other islands. But Japan demanded all the islands, which meant that the signing never took place. The Russian media are writing that it is mostly likely that Putin will up want to keep to the 1956 agreement.

Russia and Japan "have expressed their resoluteness" to settle the dispute over the Kuriles quite a few times. The talks broke down in 2001, although it is thought that Moscow had hinted at the possibility of returning two of the islands at that time. Nine years later the situation was made even more acute by the visit to Kunashir (the southernmost island of the Grand Kurile Ridge, which is located in close proximity to the Japanese Island of Hokkaido) by the then Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev. The visit to the disputed islands by the Kremlin leader unleashed a storm of protest from the Japanese side, even the recall of the Japanese ambassador in Moscow. 

Japanese Prime Minister Haoto Kan stated in the country's parliament that the Japanese regard Kunashir, Iturup, Shikotan and the Habomai archipelago as "their territory" and therefore the Russian president's trip "had hurt the feelings of the Japanese nation" and in general "requires an apology". The Russians were indignant and surprised at the Japanese reaction. The reply of Russian politicians and experts mainly concurred: "The Russian president can travel where he likes in his country". Later on, Medvedev also state that Russia would make every effort to boost its strategic presence on the Kuriles. It is noteworthy that later on several ministers in Putin's government visited the islands, but Putin himself has never been there.

The American magazine "The Christian Science Monitor" recalled at the beginning of March 2012 that the Kurile Islands' issue should be dealt with according to the "hikibaki" principle. This judo [jujitsu] term means "a draw", which can be interpreted in politics as a quest for a compromise. The only thing is that Moscow and Tokyo appear to perceive this idea in their own ways. Japan sees it as "money in the morning and dinner in the evening". This would mean that first they get the Kuriles and then they will make serious investments in the Russian economy. Russia, on the other hand, thinks that talks should and can begin following effective economic co-operation and development. This should be promoted by a new foundation, a Russo-Japanese investment platform with a $1bn-dollar capital.

But of course not everything is as simple and one-sided as it seems here. Both Russia and Japan have their own interests. After the accident at the ?Fukushima nuclear power station on two of the 50 major ?blocks/reactors are operating, so Japan has become even more dependent on Russian energy supplies. On the other hand,  Russia is facing an increasing number of competitors in this area, ranging from Australia to the countries of Central Asia and the Middle East. The Americans, moreover, are increasingly competing with  Russia's state-owned Gazprom as they increase their shale gas production. It is not surprising that Putin has proposed to Japan that they should jointly extract hydrocarbons and build enterprise for producing liquid gas. Japan, for its part, is interested in boosting its exports to Russia. It only needs to be recalled that Japanese Prime Minister Abe was accompanied on his trip by 120 entrepreneurs working in different fields, such as improving urban infrastructure, medicine, food safety, renewable energy, ship-building and so forth.

Moscow is also being guided by its desire to develop Siberia and the Far East, where the population is sparse and the climate is frequently harsh, but where there are a wealth of natural resources. Moscow's policy was clearly stated and backed up by the attention, for example, that was paid to it at the recent ?ATES summit in Vladivostok ???on the Russian island. For Russia the development of Siberia and the Far East (which would be impossible without neighbours like China and Japan) is a vital necessity, and a definite geopolitical trump card. On the one hand, it means additional income and, on the other, an alternative to the Eurasian union extensively promoted by Putin.

Incidentally, as far as the geopolitical interests of co-operation between Japan and Russia are concerned, Tokyo is trying to slow down the rapidly developing co-operation between Russia and China and is also hoping that Moscow might play a more visible role in settling the North Korean crisis. So, the leaders of the two countries have expressed their support for continuing efforts to resume the six-sided talks. At the same time, Japan is known to have somewhat cool relations with China and South Korea. Tokyo has territorial disputes with both countries. To all appearances, the Chinese have already got the message. The Xinhua agency has published material mentioning Abe's "egoistic calculations". The Chinese are puzzled why Russia's wisemen have not spotted it. 

Among the Russian authorities, moreover, there are many people who support a rapprochement with China and not Japan. Any Japanese concessions to Russia regarding the Kuriles will be perceived in a negative light by the ultra-right who have repeatedly protested outside the Russian embassy in Tokyo. These demonstrations are frequently held on 7 February, the day that the Simod Treaty was concluded; this day is celebrated in Japan and called "Northern Territories Day". On 7 February two years ago in Japan, the Russian Federation flag was torn down, and the Russian embassy was peppered with bullets. Although Russia demanded it, Japan refused to institute criminal proceeds against those involved in this action.

Besides, there remains some doubt as to how far Putin is prepared to go in pursuing the "hikibaki" principle. The Russian president, who has brilliantly mastered all the moves in Eastern diplomacy, has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to lull the partners into a sense of security, in order to take a sharp lunge at them later. This is what happened at the press-conference at the end of Abe's visit. When a Japanese journalist asked why Russia was continuing to build a geothermal power station in "the northern territories", he received an unexpectedly curt reply: "You have conscientiously read out the question from a piece of paper. I would ask you to tell the following to the person who dictated it to you. We did not create this problem. It has come down to us from the past, from 100 years ago. We sincerely want to resolve it on the basis of conditions which are acceptable to both countries. If you ant to help us, then it is possible. We need to create relations of good will and trust towards one another. But if you want to interfere with this process, you can do that too: you can continue asking such hard-line direct questions, to which you will receive such curt direct answers. How can it be any other way?" Putin was being overly frank when he answered the question.

Well, finally, the social media actively discussed Putin's gift to Japanese Prime Minister Abe, namely a rare bottle of wine from the 1855 harvest. This is incidentally completely in the spirit of oriental diplomacy, especially if we recall the year that the Simod Treaty was concluded. And  now the experts are left guessing whether the Russian president gave the Japanese a sign that there is still hope of the Kurile islands being returned or whether the only thing they can expect from Russia is a bottle of wine.

Abe has invited President Putin to visit Japan in 2014. The leaders of the two states have made their own progress. We have to remember that what comes next is up to the diplomats.