In anticipation of "street politics"

The Armenian electoral campaign followed a predictable path. Throughout the Yerevan City Council election campaign, the media focused on general political issues, such as opinion polls and discussions between the ruling party and opposition groups. The many problems Yerevan is now facing were relegated to the background. These include illegal construction in central Yerevan and, quite predictably, the absence of necessary budgetary resources. Opposition candidates were openly indignant about the miserly city budget. Golos Armenia came to an uneasy conclusion: "Sadly, none of those vying for the mayoral post have presented their vision about how to resolve the most acute problems facing Yerevan. Some pledge to build more underground stations, some vow to resolve the problem of the indoor market, another promises to eliminate condominiums, yet another one to close the Nubarashenskiy garbage dump. More underground stations, more jobs, more accommodation, and more green areas. All of these things are good. But in order for Yerevan to thrive and develop, and most importantly, to realize the ambitious plan of turning Yerevan into the "Capital of All Armenians", they need a comprehensive vision and to address the issues around the capital's safety and development. 

At the same time, there are serious doubts about the transparency of the electoral process. On the eve of the election, the head of the passports and visa police of Armenia, Hovannes Kocharyan, tried hard to convince journalists that rumours disseminated by opposition forces that non-Yerevan residents had been registered in Yerevan for the purposes of the election were simply not true. He said that the number of provincial residents registered in Yerevan had not exceeded the usual level ahead of the election. "Therefore, the rumours disseminated by the opposition about preparations for election rigging are absolutely groundless," Kocharyan said. 

Many experts say however that these statistics are not very reliable - particularly in view of the current migration levels from Armenia. On the eve of the City Council election, Hrant Bagratyan, an MP from the Armenian National Congress faction and former prime minister, posted a comment on Facebook, recounting his recent visit to the Armenian-Georgian border where he saw that "hundreds of thousands of Armenians were leaving Armenia on foot. Levels of migration have indeed increased in recent years but what I have seen exceeded my expectations." Bagratyan noted that he had heard an alarming figure: as many as 6,000 people crossed the border through the Bagratashen border checkpoint with Georgia on 21 April alone.  

Given all these sensational reports by opposition media about voters being bought off and government efforts to doctor the results, questions about whether or not the results of the Yerevan election would reflect public opinion did not come as a surprise. A lot depends on the true balance of forces, especially if Armenian politics once again shifts onto the street. Experts say this may indeed happen. 

On the eve of the election of incumbent president, Serzh Sargsyan, Armenian and foreign media discussed the threat of a repeat of the bloody events that unfolded in the country on 1 March 2008, when protests against the falsification of the presidential election led to large-scale clashes with police. In 1996, when Levon Ter-Petrosyan was reelected, Yerevan was engulfed in unrest and protesters stormed parliament. During Sargsyan's inauguration, many people said that it was only through the police's timely intervention that large-scale slaughter was averted in the streets. 

It is true that in all of the aforementioned cases the stakes were higher because this was about nationwide elections. However, experts do not rule out a repeat of the so-called Gyumri scenario - a brutal, often armed battle for power between criminal clans. On the eve of the Yerevan election, the Armenian public were overwhelmed by the events that had unfolded in Gyumri, Armenia's second largest city. 

At about 1300 hours on 23 April, the Gyumri medical centre informed the city police that they had received Artur Khachatryan and Artem Karapetyan with gunshot wounds. The latter died in the hospital. Vage Gukasyan, the nephew of former mayor Vardan Gukasyan, who was arrested in connection with the Gyumri shooting, admitted that he had indeed committed the crime. Police also detained Artur Khachatryan, the son of a person close to the family of Martun Grigoryan, an MP from the Prosperous Armenia faction. According to some reports, the incident was score-settling between the Gukasyan and Grigoryan families. 

In connection with the incident, the Armenian authorities are now conducting police raids to seize weapons in Gyumri. At the same time, personnel changes are under way in police. The chief of Yerevan police, Nerses Nazaryan, has resigned. Informed sources in Yerevan say that he was sacked on charges of organizing a "financial pyramid". At the same time, an unknown police officer, who had interfered when unknown people had beaten up opposition journalist Akop Karapetyan during the pre-election rally of incumbent mayor Taron Margaryan, was sacked. All this looks like they are trying to give the Armenian police at least a minimum "democratic luster", which can only be done if they get rid of particularly odious figures. However, many experts believe it is possible that the authorities are preparing for the use of force in Yerevan where police loyalty and manageability will be a decisive factor.