WAS THERE ERGENEKON?

Judicial authorities in Istanbul have released 13 people convicted on charges of preparing a coup. The court was guided by new legislation reducing maximum detention periods for defendants in cases of anti-state activity to five years. In addition, it became possible to consider the issue of the prisoners' release thanks to a law recently approved by parliament to abolish special courts which passed sentences on cases of coup preparation. Among those released are well-known lawyer Kemal Kerincsiz, journalist Tuncay Ozkan and a number of prominent military, writers and publicists. But perhaps the widest publicity was given to the release of Gen Ilker Basbug, the former chief of the General Staff of Turkey. He got a life sentence on charges of leading Ergenekon, an organization which, according to the authorities, planned to overthrow the government of  Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Basbug's release became possible after the Constitutional Court upheld the general's complaint and ruled that his legitimate rights had been violated. According to the Constitutional Court, Basbug's imprisonment for his alleged role in an anti-government conspiracy was groundless as the court did not publish a detailed verdict on that case.  

Basbug's release may become a precedent for more than 200 other defendants in the Ergenekon case. Meanwhile, the reviews of judicial decisions are linked to the general course of political developments in Turkey currently ridden by corruption scandals and escalating confrontation between supporters of Prime Minister Erdogan and Fethullah Gulen, the leader of the clerical movement Hizmet. 

In recent days, the biggest cities of the country have been hit by powerful anti-government demonstrations accompanied by violent clashes with the police. They got an extra boost after the news transpired about the death of a teenager who had lapsed into a coma after being wounded by a policeman during protests last summer. Continuation of massive anti-government protests testifies that Erdogan's positions have obviously been undermined. Apart from conflict with Gulen expressing the interests of a considerable part of the conservative electorate, they are being exacerbated by the government policy being rejected by secular circles unhappy with attempts by the AKP (Justice and Development Party) to revise the foundations of the Turkish Republic laid by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. In this situation, Erdogan apparently decided to relieve his cabinet of the heavy ballast of feud with the military circles. Quite a number of their representatives have been in custody for more than one year on charges viewed by many in Turkey as politicized and fabricated. 

Back in early January this year, Erdogan announced that he had ordered the Ministry of Justice to find ways to retry the cases of the army officers suspected of attempting a coup d'etat. Thus he made it clear that the high profile cases of the Ergenekon organization and the Sledgehammer (Balyoz) military coup plan might possibly be reviewed. 

It is quite possible that, ahead of municipal and presidential elections (the former will take place as early as 30 March and the latter is scheduled for next summer), the prime minister expects to build an alliance with the military and this explains the efforts launched to rehabiliate the disgraced military. Erdogan's intention may even find a response among the top brass cast whom he cast out of the domestic political process. Anyway, in his request for release, Basbug actually agreed with a statement made by the head of government that there are "gangs within the state" supported by Gulen. However, for Turkey's top brass who have acted as the guarantor of the country's secular development since the founding of the Kemalist state, it is basically immaterial who will be the winner in the AKP-Hizmet opposition. Both Erdogan and Gulen make no secret of their intentions to modify Turkey along Islamic lines and this leaves virtually no chance to build a strategic alliance with the military. 

The secular opposition, including first of all the Kemalist Republican People's Party protesting against the ruling AKP's attempts to revise Ataturk's ideological legacy and reform the country along Islamist lines, will undoubtedly have an impact on these processes.

However, as can be seen from sociological surveys, Erdogan and his party remain a fairly popular political force and, in view of this, the talking about the current government's imminent fall seems to be premature. In the context of the expanding political crisis, the economic growth indicators achieved by Turkey during the years under the AKP rule remain a strong trump card in the Erdogan government's hand. According to official statistics confirmed by data from the European Union and the world's economic centres, the last twelve years coinciding with Erdogan 's premiership have seen Turkey's economy become one of the most dynamic ones in the world. In the years of crisis, 2010 and 2011, its growth was 9.2 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively. From 2002 till 2013, Turkey's GDP grew almost four times reaching nearly one trillion dollars. Average per capita income rose from 3,000 to 11,000 dollars. Under the AKP government, Turkish export exceeded its previous record and totalled 156bn dollars in 2012.

The world's leading economists including American Jeffrey Sachs believe that there is nothing transitory about Turkey's economic recovery because it is based on a solid economic foundation, rather than financial bubbles. Experts (not only Turkish but also in the West) make no secret of their admiration for the fact that Turkey's economic growth is achieved by developing the educational sphere, tourism, infrastructure projects, advanced engineering structures and construction boom. 

All of these indicators will be used by the AKP as persuasive arguments to justify its continued stay at the top of power in Turkey. Will the opposition be able to counter them with something weightier during this year's election processes going to be the most serious trial for the Turkish political class over the past decade? In any event, the political and legal results of the coming elections will formulate an agenda of Ankara's strategic priorities for the next few years. Not to mention the fact that they will have to answer the question about the ability of the leading forces in Turkey to maintain national unity under increasing domestic political confrontation and prevent undermining the foundations of the state.