A KOREAN FORCE MAJEURE

The spectre of a nuclear war continues to stalk over the Korean peninsula. However, the way things are going between the opposing forces and the motivations of all the parties drawn into the crisis situation - not only both the Koreas, but also the other interested participants in the conflict - rather point to the fact that this spectre is not destined to manifest itself and spill over into a real war. Although this very threat reminds the world's community of the extreme fragility of the political world order and that the deadly nuclear mushroom remains one of the dark prospects of future mankind, which can only be avoided through common peace-loving efforts and the creation of a just system of international elations with equal rules of a global society for all states.

The KPDR has officially announced that its relations with the Republic of Korea have "entered a state of war". The North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has issued an order to inflict a nuclear strike against American bases in South Korea, Hawaii, Guam Island and Japan in the event of a provocation by the United States. Furthermore, Pyongyang has advised foreign embassies to evacuate all their staff from the KPDR and South Korea because it can no longer guarantee the safety of foreign diplomatic missions on the peninsula.

Meanwhile, Seoul has stated that the KPDR has transferred two medium-range ballistic missiles to its eastern seaboard. US President Barack Obama has instructed that a warning strike should not be made on the launch facility where these missiles are deployed, unless it becomes clear that nuclear warheads are being mounted on them. The Pentagon has said that if the missiles are launched the American military will be able to fix their trajectory within seconds and shoot them down if they are directed towards South Korea, Japan or Guam. However, if these missiles should come down on water no action will be taken.

The threats from North Korea about inflicting a nuclear strike on the south of the peninsula naturally arouse the condemnation of the whole world community. Nuclear threats, from wherever they come, are unacceptable for peace and security on the planet. That is why even Pyongyang's traditional allies - China and Russia - are puzzled by North Korea's position. Moscow has stated its categorical unacceptability of "Pyongyang's defiant disregard for the UN Security Council resolutions and basic regulations in the sphere of the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction". No less specific is China, which has much more levers on North Korea because it provides economic, political and diplomatic support to Pyongyang. Beijing voted in the UN Security Council for sanctions against the KPDR, making it clear that it, too, has no vested interest in North Korea's nuclear tests. Beijing is in favour of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and calls for all problems linked with North Korea's nuclear programme to be resolved by means of negotiations.

Having said that, a military analysis of the situation suggests that, despite its openly expressed military fervour, the KPDR does not at this moment possess sufficient potential - accurate missiles and compact nuclear weapons - to reliably knock out American military bases in the Pacific Ocean. The troops of South Korea and the US are at maximum readiness, not to mention the fact that Pyongyang would have no chance in a possible nuclear war with Washington.

Nor is North Korea prepared for a protracted conventional war: the country is submerged in a serious economic crisis, testimony to which is the fact that 30% of the population of the KPDR is starving. That is why, bearing in mind its unfavourable external and internal political situation, one wonders what it was that induced the North Korean leaders to engage in such irrational sabre-rattling?

In searching for an answer to this question there is one reason that suggests itself which is of a more subjective nature.  The KPDR's young leader needs to establish himself as a leader and it would seem that he believes one of the ways of doing this is to demonstrate the fighting spirit of a North Korea which is ready for anything, even a nuclear war, so long as its enemies do not believe that they can suppress the unshakeable will and determination of the North Korean people. At the same time, one should not forget that the KPDR is a closed society built on the principle of total control, and its model of barracks socialism as a matter of course for such a type of mobilized state assumes the strictest form of information isolation. The majority of North Korea's citizens are unaware of what is happening outside their country and therefore the position of the leadership is for the North Koreans essentially the only source of information. And if the KPDR authorities are really considering launching a missile on 15 April to coincide with the birth of the founder of the state Kim Il Sung, then this will indeed happen even if in a purely demonstrative form (i.e. the missile will be launched in a neutral direction, and not towards Tokyo, Guam or Seoul). 

It will be awkward for Kim Jong-un to give up his promised step because in the eyes of his people, not to mention the rest of the world, he must assert himself as a leader who does not use words lightly.

However, there are also more intrinsic reasons why the Korean peninsula has today found itself virtually on the brink of a nuclear war. It is commonly assumed that from time to time Pyongyang threatens to escalate its military conflict with South Korea in order to gain certain economic dividends from its patrons, mainly the USA. The question then arises about the next compromise from North Korea, for example, on the temporary freezing of its nuclear programme but in exchange for financial and humanitarian aid from outside, which is so vital for the KPDR's economic survival. That is why by rattling nuclear weapons now Kim Jong-un is surreptitiously counting on bargaining with the West purely for mercenary considerations.

At the same time, there is a much more crucial underlying reason for the actions of the North Korean leaders. By making noisy threats about launching missiles and preparing to carry out another nuclear test North Korea is trying to assert itself in the international arena as a nuclear power and, as a consequence, is aspiring to be reckoned with accordingly. Although Kim Jong-un is trying to show his readiness for military action, he must recognize the fact that the correlation of forces is not to his advantage. But, apparently, the KPDR leader believes it expedient to show that he is not afraid of external enemies and, most importantly, will not for a moment agree to meet the demand of world centres to halt his nuclear programme. However, is it solely for the sake of its own nuclear programme that Pyongyang is insisting on continuing with it? Obviously not, and here we come straight to the factor in respect of which North Korea is not the only culprit of the escalation of tension in the Asia-Pacific region.

The trend of the development of the geostrategic processes in the world convinces North Korea that it is precisely the presence of nuclear weapons that could become the main guarantor of ensuring state sovereignty. The way the USA and its allies have dealt with and continue to deal with a whole number of regimes all over the world which are not to their liking impels North Korea, which has chosen a different path of development (whether this is good or bad is another question which is exclusively the prerogative of the North Korean people) to that to which the West is leading the whole "civilized world", to find a reliable protective shield. And in his self-assertion the young Kim Jong-un is sending a signal to the USA and its allies: don't think you can treat me in the same way as you treated Slobodan Milosevic, Saddam Hussain or Muammar Qadhafi. I am not even Bashar Assad or Mahmud Ahmadinejad and you will not succeed in bombing Pyongyang like you bombed Belgrade, Baghdad and Tripoli. I have nuclear weapons so don't mess with me. In this sense there is much that explains Kim Jong-un's statement: "Our nuclear measure of deterrence is a means of protecting the sovereignty of the country and the people and a means of preventing war and protecting peace." At the same time, Kim Jong-un's lack of political experience, like the revolutionary fanaticism traditionally inherent in the leaders of the KPDR which is isolated from the outside world, are the reasons why that country's leaders are now demonstrating their resolve and strength in such a clumsy way, failing to evoke any enthusiasm even among those countries which are traditionally Pyongyang's defenders in the international arena.