IRAN HAS ENOUGH OF ITS OWN PROBLEMS

Some Iranian lawmakers seem to have decided to cancel international law. Last week, Fars news agency reported that several Iranian members of parliament were working on a bill to revise the Treaty of Turkmanchay and reunite Azerbaijan with Iran.

The MP from Ardabil, Kamaladdin Pirmoazzen, reported that Azerbaijani-speaking deputies would soon prepare a relevant bill. "Given that the term of the treaty signed in 1828 has already expired, the forum of MPs from the northern regions of Iran decided that the document should be revised," Pirmoazzen said.

The MP from Urmia, Nadir Qazipur, also made threats against Azerbaijan: "We warn the leaders of Baku that if they do not give up their wrong actions, we will reconsider the Treaties of Gulistan and Turkmanchay."

Qazipur warned the government of Azerbaijan not to act against Iran, but did not specify the specific cause of his indignation. According to him, if a referendum is held among residents of Azerbaijani cities that were separated from Iran under the terms of the two treaties, they will vote for becoming part of Iran again.

Of course, the reaction of the Azerbaijani side was not long in coming. In an interview with Interfax-Azerbaijan, the deputy chairman and executive secretary of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, Ali Ahmadov, called the statements of Iranian MPs completely absurd.

"This initiative is nothing but a crazy idea and absolute absurdities designed for the domestic audience in Iran. On the other hand, I want to say that the clouds have gathered over Iran today, and only those Iranian politicians who have lost the sense of reality and objectivity can make such delusional statements," Ahmadov said.

The chairman of the Motherland Party, Fazail Agamali, said that "if the Iranian MPs want to review the Treaty of Turkmanchay, for our part we can demand the reunification of South and North Azerbaijan".

The official position was voiced by Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov. According to him, the leadership of Iran will not allow a revision of the Treaty of Turkmanchay. "The Iranian parliament has begun unpleasant debates, but I do not believe that such actions of the Iranian side may lead to negative consequences," Mammadyarov said. The foreign minister stressed that the Foreign Ministry and Embassy of Azerbaijan are closely monitoring the situation surrounding the issue.

Of course, Azerbaijani diplomats will not have to monitor the situation for a long time, because this initiative of Iranian MPs is provocative and is doomed to failure.

Without going into historical detail, we should only note that the Treaties of Gulistan and Turkmanchay between Persia and the Russian Empire have long lost their validity. At least neither Persia not the Russian Empire exist now. And Iran itself, along with the entire international community, has recognized the independence of Azerbaijan twice since then - at the beginning and at the end of the last century. That is to say even if the Iranian parliament abolishes the Treaties of Gulistan and Turkmanchay, this will not have any legal consequences.

Today's Azerbaijan is a full member of the international community and the UN, a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and one of the strongest states of the region. Baku is building equal and good-neighbourly relations with all of its neighbours except for Armenia, which has occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan territory. Therefore, we do not think that Tehran will fall for the provocative statements of a couple of odious MPs, especially in view of the current international situation surrounding Iran.

"At a time when Iran is facing serious problems with the international community, it is very dangerous to make any territorial claims to neighbours. This may have a serious impact on this country," Azerbaijani MP Asim Mollazada said.

Iran, the international noose around which is tightening with each passing day, has a vested interest in friendly relations with Azerbaijan. Tehran is aware that the development of the situation surrounding the Iranian nuclear programme largely depends on the position of Baku. While remaining committed to good-neighbourly relations, the Azerbaijani leadership has repeatedly stated that it will not allow its territory to be used in the event of military strikes on Iran. This position is a big friendly step in a situation where the international coalition has enough resources for military action against Iran after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

On the other hand, if we hold a referendum, as suggested by MP Qazipur, it will have to be organized not in North but in South Azerbaijan. The population of North Azerbaijan has long made its choice by voting for independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But even Qazipur is well aware that a referendum in South Azerbaijan threatens Iran itself. It must be remembered that the Azerbaijani population of this country is a state-forming factor. And if they are to express their own free will, we do not think that the Iranian Azerbaijanis will be beguiled by the Iranian path of Islamism more than by hypothetical entry into a single, secular Azerbaijan, especially in the current situation when the West is ready to support a possible national-liberation struggle among the Azerbaijani population of the Islamic Republic at any time. The West, like Iran, periodically tries to use the "Azerbaijan factor" as an instrument of geopolitical pressure.

"The Iranian regime fears that a politically strong and economically prosperous Azerbaijan may secretly nurture separatism among their compatriots in Iran," Vice-President of the American Foreign Policy Council Ilan Berman writes in Forbes in this regard.

A similar opinion is expressed by many other experts. They tend to believe that the scandalous statements are not a whim of some members of parliament, but another demarche of Tehran. It is not by chance, they say, that such a provocative proposal was made by MPs of Azerbaijani origin. It is unlikely that in this way they expect to get the support of their voters.

Anyway, this issue will not go farther than statements by a couple of Iranian MPs. Neither Azerbaijan nor Iran will agree to escalate tensions in view of the circumstances we mentioned.