HOLLANDE GETS A WARNING

The municipal elections in France were marked by the defeat of the ruling Socialist Party. The victory of the right indicates that citizens of one of the largest countries in Europe are dissatisfied with the failed social and economic policies of the leftist leadership and that the French are becoming increasingly sceptical about the prospects of the EU.

According to the results of the election in which success accompanied representatives of the predominantly centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UPM) and the ultra-right National Front (NF), the Socialists lost power in 155 cities. The former leader of the Socialist Party, Martine Aubry, described the results as "very bad". However, she managed to keep the city of Lille, the mayor of which she has already been for 13 years, under the control of the left.

The Socialists kept Paris under their control too. In a confrontation with the UPM candidate Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet in Paris, the first deputy of the former mayor, Bertrand Delanoe, Anne Hidalgo, gained the upper hand. By the way, she is the first woman in the history of Paris to take the position of mayor of the capital.

Voting results demonstrated that the majority of the French people are disappointed in the policy of the Socialists and their leader - President Francois Hollande. During its two years in office, the government of the Socialist Party failed to give a sufficiently effective response to public concerns such increasing immigration, increasing tax burden and unemployment. Many French people were seriously outraged that the Socialist leadership led by Hollande legalized same-sex marriages despite mass protests against the policies of destroying morals and family values.

Hollande's rating, which barely reached 20 per cent before the elections, continues to fall. The Elysee Palace is seeking an opportunity to somehow maintain the authority of the Socialist Party and its leader. And the new government formed after the resignation of the cabinet of Jean-Marc Ayrault is to ensure this.

President Hollande appointed 51-year-old Manuel Valls, who previously served as Minister of the Interior, to the post of new prime minister. In Valls' cabinet, Laurent Fabius retained the post of French foreign minister. Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian also remained in his post. The former Budget Minister Bernard Cazeneuve was also promoted, becoming interior minister. But perhaps the most notable innovation in the new socialist government was the appointment of Segolene Royal as minister of ecology, sustainable development and energy. The former companion of Hollande returned to active politics, the peak of which she almost conquered in 2007, running in the presidential race.

According to the promise of President Hollande, the new government will develop a "solidarity pact". The first pillar of this document will be the education and training of young people, the second one - social guarantees with health priorities and the third one - growth in the purchasing power of citizens, which will be accompanied by tax cuts from 2017. However, many - both opponents and supporters of the Socialists - are not optimistic about the outlook for the activity of Valls' cabinet. Bridges of confidence in the new government were initially "burned" by the party Europe Ecology - The Greens (EEG) represented earlier in Ayrault's cabinet. The former ministers Cecile Duflot (who held the post of minister of territorial equality and housing) and Pascal Canfin (former minister delegate at the French Foreign Ministry), who belong to the EEG, refused to join the new government. They believe that the ideas upheld by Manuel Valls cannot help to "adequately address the problems of French society".

It must be noted that Valls has a reputation for being almost the rightmost representative of the Socialist Party. When he was interior minister, he, for example, took a more rigid position on immigration issues than prescribed by party directives. The appointment of Valls as prime minister is largely motivated by Hollande's desire to respond appropriately to the rightward political preferences of the French. However, not all the French left believe that it is this kind of message that was sent by voters to the Elysee Palace.

For example, one of the leaders of the Left Party and former presidential candidate Jean -Luc Melenchon, who is known as a radical socialist, said that "Francois Hollande did not understand the meaning of the agenda, which those who supported him in the presidential election sent him". Criticizing the appointment of Valls, who is known for his liberal views, as prime minister, Melenchon issued the following verdict on the prospects of Hollande himself: "The president of a power responded with political suicide to the electoral pogrom."

Meanwhile, right-wing politicians from opposite positions are making pessimistic forecasts on the future activity of the Valls government. UPM leader Jean-Francois Cope sees the way out in Francois Hollande "breaking with the socialist model". National Front leader Marine Le Pen, in turn, is convinced that even the appointment of a right-wing socialist as head of government will hardly change the course of the state. She believes that what France needs in the current situation is not reorganization of the government, but a radical change in government policy. According to Le Pen, the French want an end to "austerity measures imposed by Europe, which hit the poorest citizens, middle class, retirees and families".

And here we come, perhaps, to the most interesting conclusion to be drawn from the results of the French municipal elections. First of all, we should note the great breakthrough of the National Front. Its representatives were able to win in 12 cities across the country (in the previous elections, only four cities were taken over by the National Front), including in quite large cities - Fr?jus and Beziers, and to get 1,200 seats in municipal councils. It is no accident that Marine Le Pen said that her party "achieved the best results in its history".

However, the success of the National Front does not have only a narrow party character. The growing influence of the party has actually led to the restructuring of the party system in France, which is dominated by three rather than two parties - the Socialists and Gaullists, as has been case in recent decades. The National Front has filled the right-wing conservative niche, which is mostly owing to Marine Le Pen's own efforts. Since she replaced her father Jean-Marie Le Pen as chairman of the National Front a few years ago, she has managed to rid the party of the radical- nationalist image, which pushed away the wider electorate. Simultaneously, Marine was able to convince many of the French that only she can put an end to the dominance of liberal or socialist bureaucracy and improve the socioeconomic situation, resolve immigration issues and achieve moral regeneration. And, of course, the main pillar of the National Front programme is the strengthening of France - a very topical task against the background Paris' inclination towards Washington, which has been observed since the presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy and is continuing under Francois Hollande. This task corresponds to the aspirations of a considerable part of the French people, who have a negative attitude towards all manifestations of weakening in the independence of France in world affairs. And it is not surprising that the position of the National Front and its leader on issues of the political and economic development of the country meets the moods of the republican electorate more and more.

In the 2012 presidential elections, Marine Le Pen took third place and actually took away a significant number of votes from the then President Nicolas Sarkozy. It is thanks to her position in the second round, when she urged people not to vote for Sarkozy, that Socialist Hollande won by a minimal margin. After the municipal elections of 2014, we can clearly talk about the National Front turning into a systemic political force, which is steadily increasing its influence on the process of determining the fate of the country.

The intrigue developing around the upcoming elections to the European Parliament promises to be quite interesting in this sense. Leading Western experts, citing, inter alia, the results of the recent vote in France, predict a victory for extreme right parties and Eurosceptics in them. If this prediction turns out true, the EU may undergo significant changes that will affect all global geopolitics. Eurosceptics are convinced that the EU, as a liberal project, runs counter to the fundamental interests of the peoples of Europe and destroys their national and cultural identity. Hence, they express interest in closer ties with global forces that oppose the domination of transnational capital and defend traditional moral values.