FOR THE SAKE OF STABILITY

The virtual loss of Crimea, the constant likelihood of the break-up of the country and economic despair continue to hold Ukraine and the international community in a state of tension. On top of all that there is a lack of proper control on the part of the new Ukrainian authorities. That said, there is no quick solution to the crisis. We spoke with Mykhaylo POHREBYNSKY, director of the Kiev Centre of Political and Conflict Studies, about the possible development of events in Ukraine.

- The Ukrainian government has spoken about the beginning of a process of withdrawing from the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States]. Is this a political manoeuvre or have the Ukrainian authorities really decided to pull out of this association of post-Soviet republics?

- Some time ago the government came out with a similar statement - to withdraw Ukraine from the CIS - but nothing came of it. Most probably, this was a reaction by the authorities to the situation in Crimea. Withdrawal from the CIS means that Ukraine will find itself outside the free trade area. And this will have a negative impact on the whole Ukrainian economy, which depends strongly on Russian and CIS markets. The commonwealth countries make up a large proportion of trade turnover. I don't think this initiative will go any further. But political relations between Ukraine and Russia are still very tense and there are no options for an early settlement to the situation at this moment. So a sharp reduction in trade turnover between Ukraine and Russia cannot be ruled out. So long as political relations remain tense, the government in Kiev will continue to go back to the question of withdrawal from the CIS. In which case it would be a good idea to take time-out. And it is quite likely that is what the authorities will do. So one shouldn't take statements about withdrawal from the CIS as the bottom line.

- Political stability within Ukraine depends in many ways on there being objective presidential elections. Can there be free and honest elections when there are armed groups operating in the country, society is split and whole regions have virtually risen in rebellion?

- This is a real problem in Ukraine today. The fact that the new authorities have shown determination in disarming armed groups, in particular "Right Sector", is reassuring. In the next two weeks it will become clear whether the government will succeed in taking control of the situation or not. The way things are at the moment in the country, it is difficult to count on free and fair elections being held. But there are signs that order is being restored in the country. The Supreme Council has adopted a decision on disarming armed groups and the Interior Ministry has started to be more active.

- There is no let-up in the demonstrations in Ukraine's southern and south-eastern regions.   Will the government succeed in holding the country back from federalization?

- There is no way of achieving political stabilization within Ukraine apart from federalization. Many people don't like the very concept of federalization, in which case this could be called decentralization. However, we will inevitably have to introduce a second chamber to the Ukrainian parliament where the regions will be represented, and we will have to grant the regions the right of a veto in the adoption of important decisions, the right to initiate a referendum, and so on. At the moment the Ukrainian authorities are not ready for this, and it is simply a question of how soon this will happen.

- Russian experts are of the opinion that Ukraine is on the threshold of financial disaster. They are saying that it will be in default in the next couple of months…

- It is not only the Russian media, but Ukrainian Prime Minister [Arseniy] Yatsenyuk who have been warning about a pending economic disaster. A decision on anti-crisis measures was taken recently. Since the USA and the EU bear part of the responsibility for the incumbent Ukrainian administration, because they helped it come to power, so they will try to help Ukraine overcome the threat of default. The US has already allocated a billion dollars in aid, and the EU will also provide financial support. I believe that this time the West will protect Ukraine from bankruptcy.