DPRK: ALONE AND AGAINST ALL

"Explosive and unpredictable" are the two words that encapsulate the current situation in the Korean Peninsula. The two Koreas situated on either side of the 38th parallel are in a state of war. It has been a little over two years since Kim Jong-un became the leader of communist North Korea. The young leader's "achievements" are more than impressive: over the brief period of his leadership, two ballistic missiles were tested and on 12 February, the country carried out an underground nuclear test which sent shockwaves across the globe. 

The DPRK is the most closed state in the world, isolated from all others. It is for this reason that it is difficult to judge the country's achievements in other fields. It is however beyond doubt that Kim Jong-un has managed to set the whole civilized world against himself. Korean officials say that the nuclear weapons the regime is developing without regard to the international community is a guarantor of security from all hostile forces threatening the country. It was no accident that in April 2012, amendments were introduced to the North Korean constitution, a country that withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons back in 2003, to give it legal grounds to call itself "a country possessing nuclear weapons". 

According to the South Korean Defence Ministry, the power of the 12 February test amounted to 6 to 7 kilotons. Experts believe that Pyongyang is developing a small nuclear warhead that could be carried by missiles the country possesses. "From the political viewpoint, North Korea's new nuclear tests show an even greater disregard to UN demands than under previous North Korean leaders," says George Lopez, a professor at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana and a former member of the UN panel that monitors North Korea sanctions compliance. "Neither threats of fresh sanctions nor China's and Russia's growing dissatisfaction seem capable of diverting young leader Kim Jong-un off the track."

What is it that compels the poor North Korean dictatorship, incapacitated by many years of sanctions, to go against the rest of the world? It is beyond doubt that ever since the USA tested and used nuclear weapons for the first time, they have been a political instrument. Analysts point out to a change in Pyongyang's tone and behaviour as they come close to the creation of combat-ready nuclear weapons. North Korea's first nuclear test in October 2006 was accompanied by relatively laconic and peace-loving rhetoric from the state-owned news agency, saying that the test would "facilitate peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula". However, the second and the third nuclear tests came with tougher and more belligerent rhetoric: "The test is a practical measure to provide security and sovereignty for the country in the face of the USA's hostile actions which gravely violate the republic's legitimate right to launch a satellite."

North Korea carried out the 12 February nuclear test in violation of two previous resolutions (numbers 1718 and 1874) of the UN Security Council, banning Pyongyang from developing missile and nuclear programmes. The UN Security Council's reaction was predictable - at an emergency session it sharply condemned Pyongyang's provocative actions. The Security Council toughened sanctions against North Korea on 7 March, three weeks after North Korea carried out its nuclear test. In a document, compiled by representatives of China and the USA, the Security Council expressed "serious concern" over North Korea's aspiration to obtain nuclear weapons and threatened to take "new serious measures" in case Pyongyang carries out nuclear testing again. The Security Council unanimously voted for the expansion of the already operating package of restrictions - to freeze relevant accounts and ban the entry of diplomats and persons who may be engaged in the sale of weapons, AFP reported. 

The fourth resolution imposing new sanctions against Pyongyang will make it possible to block banking transactions, freeze North Korea's accounts, search its aircraft and sea vessels and (particularly humiliating for a sovereign country)  diplomats for large sums of cash in case it is directed towards the development of Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programmes. The document, in particular, contains an appeal to "exercise enhanced vigilance towards North Korean diplomatic corps to prevent them from contributing to the country's nuclear and missile programmes". The UN Security Council also banned the import of luxury items, including yachts and race cars, into North Korea. It should be noted that until now the country could count on Beijing's political and economic assistance. However, China's consent to tough sanctions against North Korea point to the fact that its supporter's patience is wearing thin. 

It should be noted that, on 18 February, prior to the approval of UN sanctions, the EU introduced sanctions against North Korea in response to the nuclear test. At a meeting in Brussels, foreign ministers of the EU member states voiced their support to "restrictive measures". The sanctions ban North Korea from trading in government stocks, gold, precious metals and diamonds. In addition, North Korea cannot open branches of its banks on EU territory, and European financial institutions cannot open branches on the territory of North Korea. 

The sanctions also applied to supplying North Korea with certain types of aluminum necessary for the production of missiles. "This is our response to the nuclear programme threatening not only the region, but also the global security system," said German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. Under the previous leadership, sanctions as these used to compel Pyongyang to change its conduct and, in exchange for commodities and economic aid, comply to the principle of "behaving itself" for a certain period of time. Now North Korea has officially and sharply rebuffed the new resolution. "The whole world will see that North Korea's consistent position will be strengthening the statehood of our country which possesses nuclear weapons and launches satellites. This is the result of the USA's attitude which pushed their resolution through in the UN Security Council," Interfax quoted the country's leadership as saying. Prior to the adoption of the resolution, North Korea made a belligerent statement: "The DPRK annuls all non-aggression agreements reached between the North and the South. The DPRK also will also cease to participate in meetings between the North and the South at the border point of Panmunjom," read a statement by the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Unification of the Fatherland, disseminated by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Having reinstated the 1990s situation in relations with South Korea, North Korea also suspended its participation in the negotiations on transforming the Korean Peninsula into a non-nuclear zone. Words come with deeds: the unpredictable North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un, pledged that "in case of even the slightest provocation by our opponents in the Yellow Sea, I will declare a holy war for the unification of the fatherland". "As soon as the relevant command is given, we should break the backbone of our mindless enemies, break their necks, and show them what a real war is like," the KCNA quoted the country's leader as saying. At the same time, Pyongyang said that it can deliver preventive nuclear attacks on the USA and South Korea. 

This is how South Korea responded to the North's muscle-flexing and rhetoric: "If North Korea attacks the South with nuclear weapons, Kim Jong-un's regime will disappear from the face of the earth at the will of the humankind and South Korea," a spokesperson for the South Korean defence ministry said. Naturally, Seoul's closest ally, the USA, did not leave the threats without attention. "The United States will not accept North Korea as a nuclear state, nor will we stand by while it seeks to develop a nuclear armed missile that can target the United States," Interfax quoted Thomas Donilon, the US president's national security advisor, as saying. 

The Key Resolve military exercise, conducted, for the first time, under the command of the United Committee of the Chiefs of Staff of the South Korean Armed Forces alone (previously this was conducted under the  joint command of forces from South Korea and the USA), are now under way under tense circumstances and 10,000 South Korean and 3,500 US servicemen are participate in it. The Foal Eagle joint maneuvers are under way in parallel, which started on 1 March and will continue until 30 April. The drills engage 200,000 South Korean and 11,000 US military - both stationed in the southern peninsula and those seconded from abroad. 

Seoul and Washington say that these are planned drills aimed at developing only defence capabilities to enhance the capability and preparedness of US and South Korean forces to respond to any provocations. 

Naturally, North Korea views the maneuvers of the South Korean and American forces as preparations for attacking North Korea which should be followed by a "holy war for the unification of the fatherland". The North Korean authorities have also set in motion a mobilization scenario, as well as the well-established propaganda machine of Pyongyang. According to KCNA, all land-based, air-borne and maritime forces, anti-aircraft defence and missile troops of North Korea, including frontline parts, "have been brought into a state of combat readiness". Against the background of increasing militarist sentiments, mass rallies in support of the authorities are under way across the country which are being accompanied by calls for war - an increasingly realistic possibility, according to assessments by the North, as well as the South.