GREAT EXPECTATIONS AND MODEST RESULTS

Officials in Yerevan continue to comment on the outcome of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Russia. They talk about historical ties between Russia and Armenia and quote speeches by Russian and local political scientists... But this whole discussion, which is quite relevant to the rules of the genre at first glance, lacks the essential thing: analysis of the results themselves, perhaps because we can only guess about the real results of the visit.

No, externally everything was very warm and friendly. Serzh Sargsyan met with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin congratulated him on his victory in the presidential election and Sargsyan, in turn, thanked him for his congratulations.

However, Armenia expected from Sargsyan's visit to Moscow not only formal smiles and greetings but answers to specific socio-economic and political questions. For example, Yerevan had no doubt that Moscow would finally "push" the issue of opening a rail service between Armenia and Russia via Georgia. In addition, on the eve of the visit the focus was the prospect of Armenia's accession to the Customs Union, the price of gas, and even ... a security guarantee for the Xocali airport.

Here, perhaps, we need clarification. This issue was covered in the media several times, but still we should remind you: Baku viewed the opening of the airport in the occupied lands of Azerbaijan as a very dangerous provocation from the very beginning. And it was firmly stated more than once that there can be no talk of any airport in the occupied territory and flights in Azerbaijan's airspace without permission from the authorities of Azerbaijan. Subsequent events showed that Baku's position was supported by ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization), and even the Minsk Group co-chairs and the EU leadership spoke out in the sense that the opening of the airport was unlikely to contribute to the conflict settlement. But during this time Armenian politicians managed to back themselves into a tight corner. Yerevan assured its own voters so many times and so emphatically that, despite the "threats" from Baku, the airport will definitely open and the whole world supports "Karabakh residents' right to free travel" that it is not to their advantage to admit the failure of the airport adventure now and answer questions as to whether it was worth starting this provocation in the first place. In any case, Yerevan is trying by all means to get some hint that the idea to open an airport in a foreign land and under a foreign sky will be approved. But, according to the transcript of the official meetings in Moscow, Sargsyan did not get the long-awaited security guarantee for the airport.

The question of the price of gas was also left unanswered. And there is something to think about here. In some quite formal documents, the Russian gas price for Armenia is defined at $ 180 per thousand cubic metres, in others, it is 220, while third documents set the figure at $ 250 and do not rule out that it will soon rise to 320 ... In short, the negotiations are continuing: Russia intends to increase the price, while Armenia expects to keep it at the same level. Officials say that the negotiations are ongoing and there is still no clarity.

Progress on the question of railway communication also failed. Yes, Serzh Sargsyan was in Moscow almost simultaneously with Alelsandr Ankvab, the so-called "president of Abkhazia", but the railway from Russia to Georgia is still closed. And, most likely, it will remain so for years to come: Tbilisi has no intention of establishing diplomatic relations with Russia as long as Russia has embassies in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali, and without solving the question of who will be in control on what border, the railroad is not likely to open.

However, the issue of the loan, which Sargsyan was trying to get from both Russia and the EU before the election, but to no avail, still remains important: Moscow and Brussels made it clear to him that the issue will be decided after the election. Now the situation is even more complicated - Moscow and Brussels demand political certainty from Yerevan and a clear answer to the question as to whether Armenia intends to enter into the Customs Union or remain a member of Eastern Partnership. In addition, for the president of Armenia, a country whose economic position it would be honest to call a "creeping catastrophe", such a loan is like a straw for a drowning man.

It is also important that the internal political background in Armenia was very ambiguous for Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Russia. The "overflowing activity" of the opposition Heritage party, whose leader Raffi Hovannisyan did not accept defeat in the elections and insists that the results of the plebiscite were rigged, not just spoils the mood of the president of Armenia and his "team". The result is that Sargsyan has to exist, let's say, "in the campaign mode".

Let's explain. As a rule, there is a certain cycle in the political, social and economic life of the country. According to it, ahead of the election, the government often tends to give potential voters as many "gifts" as possible and sets unpopular social and economic innovations aside until after the election - in line with Lermontov's phrase "It is enough to feed people with sweets, this has spoilt their stomach: They need bitter pills and caustic truths."

In connection with the demonstrations at the Theater Square and the ongoing political activity of Raffi Hovannisyan's supporters, Sargsyan even theoretically cannot stop "distributing campaign gifts" and move on to the long overdue painful measures. He still needs some loud and showy steps to reduce social tension in the country - that is why he went to Moscow, where he expressed hope for Russian support in the economic and military fields officially.

But Moscow, it seems, felt that before the election, the entire stock of Armenian "gifts" had already been used up. In any case, Moscow did not make open and clear promises of credits, low gas prices, etc. And now Yerevan's expert community says that the Kremlin links the question of the credit and the price of gas to Armenia's entry into the Customs Union.

But Sargsyan is not ready for such a unique solution and a complete break with Europe. And having barely completed the negotiations in Moscow, he returned to Yerevan in order to go to Brussels for a meeting with President of the European People's Party Wilfried Martens. Most likely, he will explore the ground for Armenia's cooperation with the EU, as well as the chances of getting a loan. Yerevan noted that the visit to Brussels was not announced in advance. This, at least, is a substantial reason to believe that the results of Sargsyan's visit to Moscow turned out much more modest than expectations.