FROM PROTEST TO TERROR

In order to assess the democratic nature of the elections international observers are using all kinds of parameters - from transparent ballot boxes and non-transparent voting cubicles to a correlation of the air-time spent by the various parties on campaigning. But arguably the most reliable criterion was the acts of protest when the elections were over.

Armenia continues to seethe after the elections. Raffi Ovannisyan, who, according to the official figures, came second at the elections for head of state, is organizing what have so far been peaceful rallies in Theatre Square in Yerevan, paying visits to the regions and, most importantly, having very lively meetings with activists of other parties.

It is significant that in the very first days of the post-election stand-off Serzh Sargsyan's "team" demonstrated weakness: the Armenian Republican Party cancelled its "victory" meeting in Theatre Square, and then Sargsyan agreed to a meeting with Raffi Ovannisyan.

But whether Raffi Ovannisyan succeeded in "building on this success" is an open question. Within a few days the leader of the "Heritage" Party demanded that a complete recording of his meeting with the Armenian leader should be brought up for nationwide discussion, and not just the part taken out of context. "Shame on those who threaten to make public a part of the recording of my meeting with Serzh Sargsyan, thereby trying to compromise me. First of all, during the conversation Sargsyan said that we were alone, and if that was a lie and the president was deceiving me, then I demand that the complete version of the recording be published," Ovannisyan said at his press conference, adding that during the meeting he told his opponent about his disagreement with the CEC's information. "The acting head of state had not been elected president and it was too early to celebrate victory with champagne," the opposition leader said. The "video scandal" flared up when the leaders of other opposition parties, and especially Ter-Petrosyan's Armenian National Congress, openly accused Ovannisyan of failing to act and of indecision. In reply the latter unleashed a wave of resolute activity in the regions, achieving the resignation, at least, of one "prince of the realm" and began to promise at rallies that the sequence of resignations would increase.

In the Yerevan political "in-crowd" today much is being said that, having won 37% of the vote at the elections, Raffi Ovanisyan "by a will of fate" has found himself in the role of the single opposition candidate, and that he has won the votes of the whole "protest electorate", and a significant part of this 37% voted not so much for him as "against Serzh Sargsyan". Nevertheless, the question as to whether Ovannisyan will get the support of the other parties remains key in the present situation. And there is no such clarity here, although the former foreign minister is busy looking for allies.

A meeting between Raffi Ovannisyan and the leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party, Gagik Tsarukyan, and also PPA members Vardan Oskanyan and Naira Zograbyan, has already taken place. However, information about this is very scanty. Sources from the PPA told the "Graparak" newspaper that Tsarukyan and Ovannisyan "chatted and drank brandy" for three hours. Although this source did make one thing clear: the PPA is more inclined to become a part of the government of national accord. The paper points out that the removal of the prime minister would, first and foremost, be part of the PPA's national programme.  This could be a reason to believe that the PPA will either assume the role of some kind of mediator between Sargsyan and Ovannisyan or it is hinting that in return for a refusal to support Raffi Ovannisyan it would like to get from Serzh Sargsyan the post of the country's prime minister…

Of course, Gagik Tsarukyan himself is not the most respected of politicians in Armenia and he is openly called the "vodka oligarch", but we recall that it was in the ranks of the PPA that he formed an "alliance of former politicians" including former president, Robert Kocharyan, and another former foreign minister, Vardan Oskanyan, politicians of experience and very dangerous for Serzh Sargsyan.

The possibility of an alliance between Raffi Ovannisyan and the HAK frightens the ruling "team" even more. It is true that while this is more of a possible option than a prediction, never mind a fait accompli, still there is no doubt that the HAK is counting on the support of the same "protest electorate" as the AOD (Armenian All-National Movement).

At the same time, another meeting gives substantial food for thought. Raffi Ovannisyan and Ruben Akopyan, a member of his staff, the head of the "Heritage" faction in the Armenian parliament, met on 3 March with representatives of the ruling body of the ARF "Dashnaktsutyun" Party, Grant Margaryan and Armen Rustamyan, and discussed questions "linked with the political crisis in the country", and also ways of resolving it. And then Raffi Ovannisyan, the press secretary of his staff, Ovsep Khurshudyan, and a secretary of the faction of the "Heritage" Party, Zarui Postandzhyan, met with representatives of the "Sardarapat" movement, Zhirayr Sefilyan and Alec Yenikomshian. Here they also discussed moves towards the start of a "people's movement and victory". 

For obvious reasons Yerevan prefers not to substantiate such details, but let us remind ourselves that Zhirayr Sefilyan, who represents the "Sardarapat" movement, is Lebanese by birth. It was there that he acquired his first "combat experience". Another participant in the meeting - Alec Yekinomshian, also known as Alex Yenikomchian - is an even more remarkable individual. He is one of the better known militants of ASALA. On 3 October 1980 there was an explosion in a hotel room in Geneva. The police arrested two residents: Suzy Mahserejian from Canoga Park, California, and Yenikomchian, with whom Raffi Ovannisyan is now meeting and chatting. It was established that the terrorists were wounded by an "infernal machine" which they built themselves - such "hardships" happen to bomb-makers from time to time. Be that as it may, the arrest of "Suzy and Alex" was the reason for the emergence of a new "branch" of ASALA, the "3 October" organization, which has been responsible for dozens of terrorist acts against Turkish and Swiss establishments all over the world, mainly in Europe. Then Alex Yenikomchian, having served his term, moved to Armenia where he was welcomed as a hero.

In the light of all this the current meeting between Raffi Ovannisyan and such individuals as Zhirayr Sefilyan and Alex Yenikomchian does not rule out that this could be the preparation here of a "heavy-handed approach". Especially as Armenia has experience of this sort of thing. We may recall that the protests against the falsification of the last presidential elections in 2008 ended on 1 March that year with shooting on the streets of Yerevan and the death of ten people. At the same time, despite the demands of the Council of Europe and the sworn assurances of the Armenian authorities, there was no full-fledged investigation into these events. And, more importantly, no answer was given to the question as to whether this was a case of the unlawful use of the army against its own citizens.

So who can say there will not be a repeat of the events of 1 March? At rallies appeals are being addressed to Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Oganyan urging him not to allow the army to be used against the people. And the pro-government media is already shifting all responsibility onto the leaders of the opposition who, they say, "are failing to control" the situation.

Against the background of the meeting between Ovannisyan and Sefilyan and Yenikomchian, we are talking not only about a possible repeat of the tragic events of 1 March 2008. Much more likely is the unleashing of a terrorist war in the country, especially as the traditions of political terror in Armenia have their roots in the century before last, and a series of political murders precedes virtually every major swing in politics. And in the course of the current presidential race there has already been an assassination attempt on the Armenian presidential candidate Paruyr Ayrikyan.

So far the post-election stand-off in Armenia is developing according to a bloodless scenario, but "at the moment" it is difficult to say how long this will last.