SARGSYAN IS DECLARED THE WINNER

On 18 February, Armenia held presidential elections. According to the CEC, the turnout was 1,518,407 people, or just over 60 per cent of the total number of registered voters. The incumbent president and leader of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, won the elections in the first round, gaining 58.64 per cent of the vote (861,373 votes). Second place went to the chairman of the Heritage Party and ex-foreign minister of independent Armenia, Raffi Hovannisyan. He was supported by 36.75 per cent of voters (539,693). Third place went to former prime minister of Armenia and chairman of the Freedom Party, Bagratyan - 2.15 per cent. The head of the National Self-Determination Association, Paruyr Ayrikyan, came only fourth, gaining 1.23 per cent of votes. The other three candidates received less than one per cent of the vote each.

International observers from the CIS, OSCE and the European Union were generally positive about the presidential elections in Armenia, noting that the election campaign lacked political debate and real competition. Such indulgence on the part of international organizations, which often manifests itself with regard to Armenians, indicates their unwillingness to notice not only the numerous violations the opponents of the authorities are trumpeting about with facts in their hands, but also the absolutely obvious, fictional character of the elections themselves.

This is confirmed by the refusal of major parties and politicians represented by the leader of the Armenian National Congress and first president of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the chairman of the Prosperous Armenia Party, Gagik Tsarukyan, former Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan, former President Robert Kocharyan, ARF Dashnaktsutyun leaders and others to stand in them. Their reluctance to nominate themselves was motivated in different ways. For example, Levon Ter-Petrosyan cited his age, Kocharyan said he did not want to compete with a "Karabakhi" and the Dashnak leaders and PAP Chairman Gagik Tsarukyan did not feel the need to explain it at all. Indeed, many know full well that it is the result of the intensive behind-the-scene activities of Sargsyan's team, which used all the available levers to "clear" the political field and ensure a convincing and, more importantly, seemingly "democratic" victory for their candidate in the first round.

It was not possible to achieve a solution to the problem in the course of a real political struggle. After all, in the four years of Sargsyan's presidency the Armenian economy stagnated and barely managed to overcome the 2008 recession. The country's foreign debt grows and reaches critical levels. Servicing the loans taken in the current year requires an additional half a billion dollars, which is impossible when the budget revenues are just two billion. Therefore, in order to repay old debts, you have to get into new ones. The government is performing its minimal social obligations with great difficulty. More than 30 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line, and in the last few years alone, nearly a quarter of a million people have left the country.

Instead of the promised peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict, which legalizes the territorial claims of Armenians, the confrontation and the risk of renewed hostilities with the stronger Azerbaijani army is growing. But at the same time, Azerbaijan's international influence is growing, while Armenia is getting glitches such as cuts in foreign aid and authoritative military and political organizations confirming in resolutions their commitment to the settlement of conflicts on the basis of respect for the territorial integrity of states.

A number of parliaments last year adopted statements condemning the massacre of civilians by Armenians in Xocali (Khojaly). Given Serzh Sargsyan's direct role as the organizer of the bloody crime, it cannot but cause his concern, if not fear. On election day in Armenia, it became known that the Foreign Relations Committee of the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Parliament had passed a resolution to recognize the Xocali genocide. The document that was adopted commemorates the victims of the tragedy, expresses condolences to the people of Azerbaijan, condemns the ethnic cleansing of civilians and expresses support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, including Nagornyy Karabakh.

Of course, Serzh Sargsyan was somewhat encouraged by congratulations from the presidents of Russia, China, Iran, France, Georgia, and a number of other countries, including Turkey. Given the nature of Armenian-Turkish relations, the widespread electoral fraud and the personality of Serzh Sargsyan himself, such so-called "political correctness" shown by President Abdullah Gul is hardly appropriate. Especially as even in Armenia itself, few people hurry to congratulate Serzh Sargsyan. Even the leaders of the allied parties, who are indebted to him for their posts and parliamentary seats, kept silent indecently long.

Although Serzh Sargsyan was declared the winner of the presidential election and will not give up power under any circumstances, the stage scenario of "democratic elections", apparently, failed. Having cleared the political field of real opponents, Sargsyan planned to ensure his victory over weak contenders effortlessly and without resorting to massive fraud. The ruling party even expressed concern that their candidate received an "indecently" high number of votes and therefore did not create any obstacles to the election campaign of opponents that did not seem very dangerous, among whom only Raffi Hovannisyan stood out more or less. We can assume that in exchange for the "green light" for a decent number of votes for Hovannisyan, Serzh Sargsyan expected him to recognize the "honest" nature of the elections and congratulate him on victory, as it happens in democracies, but he miscalculated.

Events suddenly took a different turn. The sluggish election campaign was disturbed by an attempt on the life of one of the candidates - former dissident Paruyr Ayrikyan. In late January, an unknown person fired at him, wounding him in the shoulder (the exact cause of the attack is still unknown.) This gave the victim the right to seek postponement of the elections or even their cancellation, but Ayrikyan, who changed his mind several times, did not appeal to the Constitutional Court in the end.

This event, as well as the active use of modern election technologies by Raffi Hovannisyan slightly stirred up the people and woke them from dull apathy. However, the turnout in the presidential election, compared to the previous elections, fell by almost 10 per cent. More than 50,000 ballots were intentionally damaged (one voter even ate it in front of everyone), which is twice more than in previous elections. It is significant that President Sargsyan won in Yerevan and in rural areas, while Raffi Hovannisyan gained the upper hand in most of the provincial cities of Armenia such as Vanadzor, Spitak, Gyumri, Echmiadzin, Armavir, Abovyan, Kapan, Yegheknadzor, Noyemberyan and Ijevan. This allowed opposition parties and all candidates who participated in the election to say that the election results were totally rigged in favour of Serzh Sargsyan.

Through concrete and convincing calculations they argue that at least 700,000 voters were physically absent at the time of the election, and these "dead souls" are the main base for manipulation and rigging by the current government. According to information from the observers and members of polling station commissions and districts, in some villages the voting actually took place openly, under the control of the heads of local administrations. Ballot stuffing, distribution of bribes and pressure on voters also took place openly. The ink used for stamping the passports of voters to prevent multiple voting quickly disappeared or could be easily erased as in previous elections.

It is clear that the most dramatic and negative evaluations of the elections are given by the campaign headquarters of Raffi Hovannisyan, who says his victory was stolen by Serzh Sargsyan through mass fraud. He gathers his supporters at rallies in the centre of Yerevan, as well as in provincial cities, where he received the support of the majority of voters, encourages them to fight to the end and defend their votes. For the time being, the number of protesters is not that great, there are no violations of law and order, and the police behave with restraint.

In connection with the election, the opposition Armenian National Congress issued a statement which said: "The elections demonstrated the degree of the people's hostility and hatred for the regime and personally Serzh Sargsyan. They showed that the regime is not going to stop election fraud until the will of the people rises up against them and the international community expresses an appropriate attitude. It is time for the international community to stop coddling the regime in Armenia and stop presenting legislative manipulations as positive reform."

The ARF Dashnaktsutyun's statement was no less sharp. It stated: "... most people will not accept the current system. The administrative and financial resources used in the parliamentary elections were supplemented this time with consistent violations during the vote counting. The promised good elections proved bad once again. The counting of votes confirmed our belief that the outcome of the election was a foregone conclusion, and the assessment of international observers was predictable."

Certain prominent representatives of these political forces - MPs Nikol Pashinyan and Armen Rustamyan have already participated in the rally. If Levon Ter-Petrosyan's ANC and the ARF Dashnaktsutyun fully support the protest against unfair elections, it will be time for Serzh Sargsyan to think not about a "beautiful, democratic victory", but about how to suppress the growing protests and stay in power by any means. To that end, on 21 February, he met with Raffi Hovannisyan at the presidential residence. According to Hovannisyan, he suggested to Sargsyan that the elections be declared invalid and new elections be held, but the head of the state said no: "I said if you are not ready for new elections, punish those who broke the law during the elections and put pressure on citizens - ministers, community leaders, members of parliament." Raffi Hovannisyan informed his supporters that Serzh Sargsyan rejected the appeal, as well as the proposal to switch to a proportional electoral system and hold new elections.

As a result, the ex-minister decided to move the fight to the province to mobilize his supporters, and then call on them for mass rallies in Yerevan. But many observers do not believe in the success of his activities. After the CEC officially announced the results of the election and proclaimed Serzh Sargsyan as the winner, he received congratulations from US Secretary of State John Kerry, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, the presidents of Germany, Poland, etc. This is indirect refusal to support the disgruntled Armenian citizens and politicians and a direct demonstration of readiness to deal with President Serzh Sargsyan for another four years. So the protests of deceived voters are unlikely to lead to anything, while the criminal group of Kocharyan-Sargsyan will not give up power. At the same time, the image of Serzh Sargsyan, his regime and the election profanation is strongly damaged, and the chance to cheat a multimillion-dollar aid package out of the European Union is significantly slimmer. As for the disappointed Armenian citizens, they still have the opportunity to vote against this regime with their feet, which they have been doing in recent years, leaving Armenia en masse. If last year their number was approximately 50,000, in the current year, there is every reason to believe that this figure will double, since four more years with President Serzh Sargsyan with his dead-end policies deprive ordinary Armenians of hope for a better future for themselves, their children and their country.