“THIS REGION IS LIKE A POWDER KEG”

Re-elected for a second term, President Barack Obama intends to change US' strategy in questions of foreign policy, despite the fact that his ideas are coming up against fierce opposition in the country's neo-conservative circles. The harbinger of the changes in the US' strategy was the renewal of Obama's team, which was most clearly expressed by the inclusion in it of such odious politicians as Chuck Hagel and John Kerry. So what will the new or renewed US foreign policy look like? Michael Rubin, an expert of the Washington "American Enterprise" institution on questions of the Middle East and Iran, shared his impressions on this subject with Region Plus.

- John Kerry has given an assurance that the pro-Armenian views, for which he was known when he was a senator, will not impact on his work as US Secretary of State. How likely is it that he will still carry over these views to his new office?

- Kerry has close links with the Armenian diaspora, but I don't foresee any changes in the policy conducted up to now in the region. Kerry is not renowned for his principled support for any of the sides under any circumstances: it seems to me that at a time when he no longer needs the support of the Armenian community at the elections he will ignore it. To be honest with you, the Armenian activists in the US that I know fear that Kerry's support for them was opportunistic and not based on loyalty.

- Do you agree with the opinion that after the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan, the US will considerably downgrade its interest in the Southern Caucasus?

- The US' interests in the Southern Caucasus will, of course, be reduced when the troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan. What is worse is that no matter how much Vladimir Putin downgraded President Obama's importance, as everyone in the region noticed, Obama himself does not recognize this and continues to flirt with Moscow.

- Do you share the opinion of the former US ambassador to Baku, Matthew Bryza, that President Obama will not be as active in a Karabakh settlement as Russian President Medvedev was?

- Yes, I fully agree with Matthew Bryza. From the White House's point of view, the crises in North Korea, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, Mexico and Venezuela will always have priority for the US. Furthermore, Obama is not the kind of man who values allies such as Azerbaijan and he doesn't understand the importance of friendship. Even after the WikiLeaks report that Armenia had gone so far in its support for the terrorists in Iran, Obama doesn't intend to lift a finger. This is a real tragedy and it embarrasses me as an American. Azerbaijan deserves better from its relations with the United States.

-  It is no secret that the Southern Caucasus is full of danger. Is it likely that one of these dangers will develop into an armed confrontation this year?

- This region is like a powder keg. What worries me most of all is Iran's self-confidence. While the US does not plan to start a war with Iran the danger exists that Iran will provoke the United States, forcing it to respond.

- But how might the intention of the Armenians to start using the new airport in occupied Karabakh affect the situation in the region?

- The use of an airport on occupied territory is very dangerous but the Armenian government could initiate such plans. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is responsible for the collapse of the economy and the reduction in the size of the population. The only way he can distract the population from existing problems is nationalism, and he will be pushing for this. Nevertheless, we have an example with the reluctance of the international public to use the airport in Northern Cyprus (at least for direct flights, without a first stop in Turkey) and this will probably be an example for any new airport on disputed territory.