TEHRAN 2013

The festivities to mark the 34th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran were marred by a scandal. During a speech at a rally, Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani was attacked by supporters of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who pelted him with stones and shoes. Their relations finally soured at a session of parliament, where in response to accusations of usurpation of power and incompetence, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad accused Larijani and his family of being involved in corruption in the judicial system. In support of his allegations, the president played an audiotape on which the speaker's brother was demanding a bribe. It all ended with a war of words between them. Larijani accused Ahmadinejad of mafia activities and asked him to leave the hall, not giving him a chance to reply. According to analysts, these processes are nothing other than the unofficial start of the election campaign.

The presidential elections in Iran are scheduled for 14 June. This is the second and last term of incumbent President Ahmadinejad - the Iranian constitution does not allow him to run for the presidency for a third time. Consequently, Ahmadinejad is completing his presidency. However, the current president of Iran seems to be willing to continue to influence the political process in the country through his supporters. On the other hand, opponents of Ahmadinejad are trying to discredit his followers. Thus, the scandal in parliament, and then the subsequent 24-hour arrest of the Tehran prosecutor and the Iranian leadership's confused reaction in the negotiations with the United States testify to a split in Iranian society as a whole and in the ruling top. This was talked about after the parliamentary election of 2012, which actually was a struggle between the supporters of the country's spiritual leader Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad. Another intrigue is that the group headed by the spiritual leader and supporters of the incumbent president are trying to keep out of the game the reformist part of Iranian society, which appeared on the streets after the announcement of the results of the disputed 2009 election and proved to be a serious political force.

Amid the volatile situation in the country and growing social and economic problems caused by international sanctions, the second post in the Islamic state and the fight for it are of particular importance.

Political groups and their probable candidates

The June presidential election will involve candidates approved by the Guardian Council. Although the list of presidential candidates is not clear yet, we can determine the likely candidates. Among them are politicians, academics and religious circles. They can be divided into three categories: reformers; pro-Iranian group (supporters of Ahmadinejad); conservatives (this group is divided within itself into such subcategories as radical, traditional and pragmatic groups).

It should be noted that after the adoption in December 2012 of a new law on the presidential election, people older than 40 and younger than 75 years who have a doctor's, scientific or equivalent spiritual degree, and at least 8 years of experience as a state official, can participate in the race. After the adoption of this law, some strong political figures cannot participate in the elections. Among them is the former president of Iran, 79-year-old politician and oligarch Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who could influence the political balance of power in the country. As a supporter of reform, he is a "sworn friend" of Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Reformers

The reformist groups that appeared at the time of former President Khatami with the motto of "More freedom and democracy" are seeking a new leader before the election of 2013. In the current situation, it is not possible to nominate candidates such as Rafsanjani and the head of the "Green Movement", Mir Hossein Musavi: the former cannot be nominated because of the age limit, while the latter is under house arrest. It is noteworthy that Musavi is a relative of Iran's Supreme Leader and head of the conservative camp, Khamenei (Khamenei's father is a brother of Musavi's grandmother).

The most likely representative of the reformers, according to analysts, is the brother of former President Khatami and minister of health during his rule, Mohammad Reza Khatami. Despite the fact that Khatami's wife Zahra Eshraki is a granddaughter of the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ruhollah Khomeyni, Khatami himself is an ardent supporter of reformist ideas, and if his nomination is confirmed by the Guardian Council, he will be backed by a strong and large electorate. If he is rejected by the Council, the following candidates from the reformists could be former Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref and Mohammad Ali Najafi, who was a minister during Rafsanjani's presidency. However, both of these candidates have no social base and support among the reform-minded part of the electorate.

Conservatives

Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has been governed by the clergy, who consist mainly of the conservative group. Despite the fact that during the presidency of Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, the reformist wing tried to conduct political and social reforms, the conservative group of the clergy retained their positions in the government. To understand internal political processes in Iran, it is important to note that representatives of the conservative group have split into radical, traditional and pragmatic groups.

Among the conservative candidates, the name of Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani is mentioned most often. A son of a spiritual leader, doctor of philosophy, experienced politician and bureaucrat, Larijani has a clout over different branches of government in Iran through his brothers. A former employee of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), Larijani is an ardent supporter of the idea of the Islamic Republic. After losing the presidential election to the then conservative favourite Ahmadinejad, Larijani took over as secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. He was the chief negotiator with the EU on Iran's nuclear programme. Larijani's "moderate" position in these negotiations makes him a representative of pragmatic conservatives. At the same time, his closeness to Supreme Leader Khamenei makes him popular among all conservatives.

Larijani's main competitor is another potential conservative candidate Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. As a commander of the IRGC during the Iran-Iraq war, Qalibaf worked in law enforcement agencies and then took over as mayor of Tehran, which became vacant after Ahmadinejad's election as Iranian president. Back in 2005, putting forward his candidacy in the presidential election, Qalibaf tried to synthesize conservative and reformist theses, appealing to the Iranian youth. This time Qalibaf can count on support from the IRGC, some media, Basijis (Iranian paramilitary volunteer militia), and even some members of the Green Movement. Support from different segments of society, who share Qalibaf's ideas, is important of course. However, among the "traditional conservatives", Qalibaf is reputed for being "too modern" and "too strong". The conservatives fear that a "second Ahmadinejad" might emerge.

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki also said in December 2012 that he intends to run in the presidential race. The representative of "pragmatic conservatives", Mottaki, has close ties to the leadership of China and Russia. No matter how his prominence in the international arena plays into his hands, Mottaki's chances are slim before such strong candidates as Qalibaf and Larijani.

As for other candidates from the conservatives, among them are former Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel, who is a relative and the most trusted man of Khamenei, and Saeed Jalili, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

"pro-Iranians"

The confrontation between Ahmadinejad and the conservative wing, which began in 2009, seems to be growing before the presidential election. Over the last few years, carriers of the "pro-Iranian" ideology appear to have united around the president of the Islamic Republic, and for them Iranian Islamic identity is less important that national identity, that is to say Persian national identity (Persian nationalism and Persian statehood in pre-Islamic Iran). The pro-Iranian group has more liberal views on cultural and social issues, in contrast to the conservatives who accuse the pro-Iranians of bad faith as the Islamic ideology has no such concept as a nation, which is replaced by a community of religious persuasion - "Umma" (followers of the Prophet).

A prominent representative of the pro-Iranian group is the chief adviser to Ahmadinejad - Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei. The roots of their friendship go to the days before the Iran-Iraq war, where both served in the intelligence service and later became close relatives.

After his re-election in 2009, Ahmadinejad appointed Mashaei vice president. However, the latter was not able to work even for three days after the spiritual leader intervened. The point is that one year earlier, Mashaei greatly annoyed the conservatives, declaring that the Iranians "are friendly to all people in the world, even to the Israelis". "No nation on earth is our enemy, Iran is a friend of the US and Israel and respects these countries. We believe that the Americans are one of the greatest nations in the world," he said. According to analysts, Mashaei's election after Ahmadinejad could be Iran's Putin-Medvedev option. Therefore, it is difficult to assume that the Guardian Council will allow Mashaei to become an official candidate.

Speaking of groups in the Iranian leadership, you cannot ignore one important point. As a rule, the conservatives, for whom the ideas of the Islamic Revolution are very important and relevant, are not of Persian origin (Khamenei, Qalibaf, etc.). In turn, the backbone of the reformers and naturally, "pro-Iranians" are ethnic Persians. In this regard, experts observe a very interesting trend: gradually real power in Iran is falling into the hands of ethnic Azerbaijanis, who serve to strengthen Iran's Islamic statehood.

In any case, the presidential elections will take place not in the best of times for Iran. In the international arena, Iran is almost in isolation, apart from weak support from Russia and China, and the only true ally - al-Asad's regime in Syria - is in its death throes. Inside the country, due to international economic sanctions, unemployment and inflation are rising and the voice of the protesting electorate is becoming louder in Iranian society. It seems that the government, especially its conservative part, can redirect this angry protest against the current president and external enemies, and the main presidential candidates will adopt militant rhetoric and conservative values.