A STEP BACKWARDS OR MEETING HALFWAY?

It is a tradition that every year on 24 April Armenians all over the world sit down in front of their television sets to listen to the US president's address on the occasion of the latest anniversary of the events in the Ottoman Empire in 1915. "Will the American president utter that sacred word 'genocide'?", Armenia and the whole Armenian community wonder. But every year the head of the White House disappoints them. The present leader of the US, Barack Obama, did not say the "magic" word this year, either.

"People are becoming stronger and laying the foundations for a more honest and tolerant future, bearing in mind the painful moments of the past," was what Obama said in general terms.

The Armenian lobby in the US has once again expressed its profound disappointment, recalling that during the election campaign Obama apparently promised to recognize the "genocide".

Against this background, the day before Obama's speech, a much more significant event happened in Turkey.

"God rest the souls of others"?

"A political earthquake" - that was how experts defined Turkish Prime Minister [Recep] Tayyip Erdogan's condolences to the descendants of the Armenians who died "during the events of the beginning of the 20th century".

Among other things, to the surprise of many people, Erdogan said at a session of parliament: "We wish that the souls of the Armenians who died in the events of the beginning of the 20th century rest in peace, and we convey our condolences to their grandchildren."

The Turkish prime minister recalled that 24 April is a special day for the Armenian people: "The day which has a special meaning for the Armenian citizens of our country and Armenians all over the world is a valuable opportunity for a free exchange of opinions about these historic events. It cannot be denied that in the final years of the Ottoman Empire this was a difficult period for millions of its Turkish, Kurdish, Arab, Armenian and other citizens, whatever their religious and ethnic affiliation, one filled with bitter events."

Erdogan's opponents in Turkey interpreted this statement in different ways. In their view, it was not very logical to express condolences to the grandchildren of those who during the agony of the Ottoman Empire rose up against a state of which they were the citizens. After the start of the First World War, in collaboration with the enemies of Ottoman Turkey, the forefathers of today's Armenians organized the real genocide of the Muslim population of Turkey. With the support of their western "guardians" and the Russian Empire, from 1895 to 1915 the Armenians carried out over 40 uprisings. In return for help in weakening the power of the Turkish state they were offered an independent state in the south-eastern part of Anatolia, where they had never been in the minority before in history.

Consequently, in the opinion of the critics of the Turkish prime minister, condolences and pity for the tens and hundreds of thousands of dead Muslims should be expressed, first and foremost, by the descendants of the Armenians. Or such steps should at least be mutual.

In point of fact, on the one hand Erdogan's move could be seen as a clever attempt to weaken the positions of Turkey's enemies in the run-up to the centenary of the events of those times. It is no secret to anyone that from the start of 2015 Turkey will be faced with unprecedented pressure from the world powers which have long since been using the so-called "genocide of the Armenians" for their own narrow political aims and not for the restoration of "historical justice". From this point of view, the Turkish prime minister's statement could be seen as a fact that official Ankara has no reason to be ashamed of its past and that it has nothing to hide from anyone. Of course, by making this statement the Turkish government is taking another step to meet Armenia half way. There have been similar attempts in the past: "soccer diplomacy", the Zurich protocols and the permission for new Armenian immigrants, of whom there are over 100,000, to work and live in Turkey. But will this latest goodwill gesture be left unanswered? Will this compassion be seen as weakness on Turkey's part? Alas, the reaction of the world's Armenian community in this case does not inspire optimism.

"Asymmetrical" responses  

Immediately after Erdogan's statement a rally was organized in the Armenian capital to mark the 99th anniversary of the "genocide". Shouting slogans of "Compensation, condemnation and recognition" youth and students' organizations of the Dashnaktsutyun party set fire to flags of the Turkish Republic. The participants in the rally also handed over to the Armenian president's administration a petition demanding the withdrawal of the signatures on the Zurich Turkish-Armenian protocols.

The reaction of the Armenian diaspora was much the same.  The chairman of the Council for the Coordination of Armenian Organizations in France, Alexis Govchiyan, described Erdogan's statement as "a continuation of the policy of denial", and Richard Ovanisyan, an American historian of Armenian descent, said it was a "diplomatic repeat of statements by the Turkish state". Other members of the diaspora also called the Turkish leadership's move "a denial of the 'genocide'", "an act of wickedness", and so on.

Armenians in Turkey reacted relatively moderately but their statements also contained a sub-text which precisely defines the ultimate objectives of the Armenian community. For example, one of the leaders of the Armenian diaspora in Turkey and chairman of the Karagozyan Fund, Tigran Gulmezgil, praising the prime minister's action, expressed the hope that this was just a first step and there would be a continuation.

A continuation of what? Recognition of the fact that it never happened? Will the Armenians give up their crazy idea after this? Of course they won't. Professor Ruben Safrastyan, a doctor of history and director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Armenian National Academy of Sciences, has urged Turkey…to start handing out compensation! That's your continuation.

"The compensation could be financial or economic. The heir to the Ottoman Empire is obliged to give the Armenian people the right to the realization of their aspirations on the territory of historic Western Armenia. The purpose of the genocide was not only the annihilation of people but also the de-Armenization of Western Armenia, i.e. the east and south-east of present-day Turkey. Modern Turkey must re-establish that ethnic situation that existed in the Ottoman Empire before the rule of the Young Turk triumvirate and the policy of the genocide of the Armenians," Safrastyan believes.

To the one who…

The objective is clear, but the means are hazy. To beat out of Turkey official recognition, not for the triumph of justice (the Armenians themselves know all there is to know about historical justice: one only has to read the Armenian historians themselves), but to realize their other plans, including territorial claims towards Turkey.

As for compensation, this, first and foremost, would be money and Armenia's political establishment needs it. But money is needed not to rebuild the country's ailing economy. When it won its independence Armenia received financial aid from representatives of the diaspora and from various European structures. This money was successfully plundered by criminal-oligarch elements who infested all spheres of the Armenian economy. When the sponsors from the diaspora and the West realized that their donations were merely going towards palatial mansions, expensive cars and other luxuries they stopped being generous.

Whereas the objectives and motives of the Armenian leadership are clear enough, things are more complicated when it comes to the diaspora. The fetish of the "genocide" is the cornerstone that unites the diaspora. It is the "idee fixe" of the world's Armenian community. And tomorrow, if one may hypothetically allow the probability of the recognition of the "genocide", who knows what will happen to the diaspora? Under what slogans will they drag money out of the pockets of wealthy Armenians? Will the Armenians who have laid down roots in various parts of the world start to return to the "lands of their forefathers" ?

The 1920 Treaty of Sevres, whereby Turkey was split into several parts, has not lost its topicality for its patrons in the West. The dismemberment of Turkey could be one of the stages of the process of the destruction of ethnic states. Secondly, having forced Turkey to make concessions to Armenia by opening its borders, the West is thereby counting on removing Yerevan from the orbit of Russian influence and making it its advanced post in this important region.

It is no accident that Armenia's leader Serzh Sargsyan is using anti-Turkish rhetoric in his policy of flirting with the West. And Serzh Sargsyan even tried to link rejection of talks with the European Union at the recent summit of the "Eastern Partnership" programme [in Prague] with the world's reluctance to recognize the imaginary genocide. He tried, but to no avail.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev forestalled the Armenian leader's anti-Turkish speculation. "You are taking advantage of Turkey's absence at this meeting. You know that Turkey is not represented here and you are taking advantage of this. But I am here and I will answer you!" Aliyev said.  

The "civilized" and "progressive" world, of course, knows how to draw up strategic plans in a masterly way. But one should not forget that the Turkish people have over the centuries become skilled in exposing and thwarting political schemes and intrigue, of which there have been a good many in the history of this state.

AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT RESPONDS TO SARGSYAN'S INAPPROPRIATE ATTACKS ON TURKEY

At the Eastern Partnership summit Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev responded to attacks by the Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan on Turkey in connection with the fictitious "genocide of the Armenians".

"Unfortunately, the Armenian president has taken advantage of the situation to again make attacks on Turkey. This is easily done because there are no Turkish representatives around this table.  But I can say right here why the Turkish-Armenian border is closed," Aliyev said.

He pointed out that Turkey's border with Armenia was closed after the occupation of Azerbaijan's Kalbacar District in April 1993. "And before that all Azerbaijanis were banished from Nagornyy Karabakh," the head of state said.

"As far as Turkish-Armenian relations are concerned, Prime Minister Erdogan, in a speech several years ago, proposed that the Armenian leadership opened all its archives so that historians can examine the historic moments of relations between the two peoples. But this proposal did not meet with a proper response," Aliyev said.

At the same time, he pointed out that Prime Minister Erdogan's condolences to the people of Armenian extraction had received no appropriate reaction from the Armenians. "Evidently, this is not enough for the Armenian government. This clearly shows who doesn't want peace in the region," Aliyev noted.

The head of the Azerbaijani state also demanded that sanctions be taken against Armenia, which is infringing international standards. "The Azerbaijani people are asking: 'Why are no sanctions being taken against Armenia? Why is the Armenian delegation in the Council of Europe not being denied the right to vote and speak?" They have occupied the territories of another country, are infringing the norms of international law and crudely violating four UN Security Council resolutions but no sanctions or any punishment is being taken against them. Self-styled representatives of the illegal, criminal Nagornyy Karabakh regime are obtaining visas to European capitals. This is intolerable and it must be stopped," Aliyev said.