EVERYONE IS FOR THE FIELD MARSHAL

The election campaign is underway in Egypt for the presidential elections scheduled for 26-27 May. Only two candidates are battling for the top post: the former minister of defence, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and the leader of the "Popular Current" party, Hamdeen Sabahi. Many experts are asserting that the elections themselves will be a mere formality, since the field marshal enjoys greater authority and support among the population at large than H. Sabahi, so he has incomparably less chance of winning. Hamdeen Sabahi may in the main count on the support of the liberally-minded Egyptians and the young people as well as on the old left-wing forces. Formerly a deputy of the parliament back in the years of [former Egyptian President] Hosni Mubarak's rule, as a candidate in the presidential race in 2012, he got 20 per cent of the votes, finishing second runner-up.

At the present time, his chances of winning are too small, since liberal values and revolutionary moods have been devalued in Egyptian society. When he registered as a candidate, he presented a list of signatures in support of him which was six times shorter than that of his rival. It is noteworthy that H. Sabahi, who represents the moderate left wing, has, in taking the decision to participate in the elections, evoked dissatisfaction among the opposition politicians who did not put forward their candidacy, believing in advance that the elections will be a political farce. In particular, the lawyer and human rights activist Khaled Ali and the moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh refused to take part in the elections right from the start. The liberal politician and candidate in the 2005 Egyptian presidential election, Ayman Nour, called upon H. Sabahi to take a similar step, but the latter ignored this appeal. These politicians are convinced that, in so doing, H. Sabahi is involuntarily creating a democratic trimming for what is an election in which there is practically no alternative candidate.

Arrested 17 times for his political views during the rule of [former Egyptian presidents] Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak, right from the start he took part in the January 2011 revolution. In doing this, H. Sabahi distanced himself both from the military and the Islamists. Declaring his adherence to the ideals of the second president, Gamal Abdel Nasser, H. Sabahi is in favour of the state being involved in the economy and protecting national interests and is staking on the poorer strata of the population, the middle class and the petty bourgeoisie.

As mentioned above, the favourite in the up-coming elections is regarded as a representative of the military elite El-Sisi, who played a key part in removing the Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi, from power in July last year. In Egypt, where they have not completely recovered from the upheavals of the "Arab spring" and where bloody clashes flare up and acts of terrorism are committed from time to  time,  the field marshal is perceived as a potential guarantor of stability and order. 

But, since Egypt acquired independence, it is precisely leaders representing the military elite and the army that have always acted as a single force capable of ensuring security in the country, which is what the Egyptians need first and foremost. Thanks to its well-organised nature, the army has frequently become the vanguard of changes in Egyptian society. It is precisely for this reason that the upper echelons of the military so easily managed to remove from power  the Islamists who had subjected the country to political and economic turmoil during their two-year rule. After there was a drastic deterioration in ensuring citizens' personal security, the Egyptians once again began to pin their hopes on the army which is the most experienced and mighty power structure.

Should El-Sisi win the elections, something about which there is hardly any doubt, he will become the sixth high-ranking military leader of the country since the times of the first president, Mohammad Naguib. The field marshal's opponents accuse him of violations of human rights and persecution of the opposition. El-Sisi has been subjected to particularly scathing criticism on the part of the Islamists, against whom he has launched a wide-scale campaign. As a result, the "Muslim Brotherhood" party has not only been outlawed, but also declared a terrorist organisation. Thousands of its members have been arrested, and the Egyptian court has sentenced around 700 of ex-President Mohamed Morsi's supporters to death, who have been found guilty of organising mass unrest, attacking police stations and representatives of the authorities. The "Muslim Brotherhood", which initially announced that it would boycott the elections, is unlikely to discontinue its struggle against the present authorities.

However, in order to consolidate the position of the military elite and gain the support of the broad strata of the population, the field marshal has taken some important steps, firstly with regard to legislation. A new Egyptian Constitution was adopted in January this year. More than 55 per cent of the electorate went to the polls, of whom 96 per cent voted in favour of the new fundamental law of the country. By comparison, we note that 64 per cent of the electorate voted for the previous Constitution in December 2012 (in the period of Islamist rule), whereas the turn-out was approximately 33 per cent. The new constitution prohibits the setting up of political parties, whose policies are based on religion. To add to this, in order to be  able to stand for president (Egyptian laws forbid members of the military from taking part in presidential elections) El-Sisi announced his resignation from the post of minister of defence and that he was quitting the army.

Another important element is that El-Sisi consistently comes out in support of ethnic and religious tolerance. Egyptian Christians (the Copts), who were not happy with the previous political authority which tried in every way possible to give greater importance to Islam in citizens' everyday life, have been in favour of him standing for president.

Another point in El-Sisi's favour is that he has scored a certain success for Cairo in the fight against the radical grouping HAMAS, which has officially been recognised as a terrorist organisation by the Egyptian court. In the middle of March the Egyptian army destroyed approximately 1,500 illegal tunnels belonging to HAMAS, between the Gaza strip and the Sinai Peninsula. This is particularly important for ensuring the security of Israel, the USA's strategic ally in the Middle East. This is probably why Washington, which initially reacted very scathingly to the removal of the Islamists, has noticeably toned down its rhetoric as time has gone on. 

Moreover, although Washington suspended its annual financial aid to the Egyptian military back in August, the Pentagon has announced that the USA will resume sales of military helicopters to Cairo to assist the fight against radical Islamists in the Sinai Peninsula. The White House has moreover planned to fully reinstate the financial aid rendered for combatting terrorism. But the  chairman of the US Senate's Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations and Related Programmes, Patrick Leahy, has blocked the transfer of a 650-million-dollar tranche owing to the death sentences meted out to 700 Islamists. In spite of this, Cairo and Washington will most probably come to some kind of agreement on this. If El-Sisi is elected president, he can announce an amnesty or pardon for most of those sentenced, which will promoted a softening of the US stance. Such a scenario would allow both sides to save face. All the more so, since the stepping up of contacts between Egypt and Russia are not to Washington's liking at all. El-Sisi's first trip abroad in the capacity of Egypt's minister of defence in February this year was precisely to Moscow. During this visit bilateral contracts on military-technical co-operation worth 3bn dollars were signed. Besides, during the visit by the minister of industry, trade and investment, Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour, the parties discussed the possibility of setting up a free trade zone between the [Russian] Customs Union and Egypt. It is hardly likely that, against the backdrop of the actual situation pertaining and the recent exacerbation of the geopolitical confrontation with Russia that the USA will turn down the opportunity of forging close ties with Cairo headed by the new president. In these circumstances, the choice of the Egyptians and the external players in the form of the USA and Russia fully concur, which is a rare event.