“INSANITY SHOW” CONTINUES

The Central Election Committee of Armenia has approved the list of eight candidates for the post of the head of state and started a campaign to elect the President. In the present state of total frustration, which has become the dominant element of the mass consciousness of Armenian society, an atmosphere of social disorder and vulnerability, and emigration reaching dangerous proportions, no-one from the opposition has ventured to challenge the regime, thus burying the hopes of the Armenian people for change in the country. Perhaps no-one has any doubt that the election outcome is predetermined and there will be no real political struggle in the run-up and during the election. This, of course, is not an indication of any outstanding qualities of Serzh Sargsyan. He had shown his most "outstanding" qualities in March 2008 when he taught the Armenian people a bloody lesson and subsequently usurped power. This time the Armenians have been let down by the opposition.

Analysts believe that by consolidating power and organizing a competent campaign, the opposition might have hoped at least for a second round. They consider wrong the tactic of a passive boycott at a time when Armenia's foreign debt, according to official data, is close to 40 per cent of GDP. According to the same official statistics, due to the dismal social situation 66,000 people left Armenia last year. The dynamics of migration which we provided in one of our previous issues has become quite dangerous for the future of the Armenian people. On the eve of the election campaign people heard another unpleasant but a rather predictable report: the Russian side was raising the price of natural gas from the current $ 220 to $320 per 1,000 cubic meters.

The way one of Sargsyan's main opponents in the 2008 presidential election, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, explained his decision not to stand in the election looked more like an attempt to make a graceful retreat. His explanation that he is already 68 and that people at that age do not claim to become president is not perceived seriously. The head of the Union of Political Scientists of Armenia, Hmayak Hovhannisyan, was not too careful in his assessment of this move. "Ter-Petrosyan's non-participation in the election is nothing but a criminal unwillingness to bear responsibility to his colleagues and supporters. When Ter-Petrosyan says in an interview that power is seized by a handful of criminals, when he likens Serzh Sargsyan to Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein, this makes his subsequent statements that he would describe the situation after the election and that he would not stand in the election because of his age not very logical. They dissonate with his own assessments in this interview," says the analyst.

As for the reluctance of the leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party, Gagik Tsarukyan, to fight for the reins of power in the "prosperous" country, experts have no doubt that this was the result of backroom agreements. "Either he was subjected to terror or an agreement has been reached with him. If they prefer a passive boycott, then the main reason is fear," says the same A. Hovhannisyan. According to analysts, the party's refusal to nominate its own candidate in the current election situation only looks like a sign of neutrality, but in reality it represents veiled support for Serzh Sargsyan. And confirmation of this hypothesis followed quickly.

According to the Armenian media, representatives of the formally opposition Prosperous Armenia Party will take an active part in supporting the campaign of incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan. News.am reports that the day after Tsarukyan's withdrawal from the presidential election entrepreneurs who are members of the PAP "were introduced to the head of state" and expressed their readiness to support his presidential ambitions. Apparently, Tsarukyan's trips to Moscow did not produce a positive result and he failed the casting by the "film director". It is clear to all that Russia has powerful levers of influence on Armenian policy, therefore it doesn't matter much for Moscow who is in charge there. Russia understands that by using this leverage it can modify Armenian policies at the right time no matter who becomes president. This was explicitly hinted at by Vladimir Putin during Serzh Sargsyan's recent visit to Moscow. He said that officialy registered private transfers from Russia to Armenia alone were in the order of $1 billion. Although the Kremlin is not very happy with the current Armenian government trying to maneuver between Russia and the EU, the difficult situation at the borders of its outpost does not allow it to take steps aimed at destabilizing and changing power in the country. Moscow's caution is understandable - the war in Syria continues and it will not end well for Russian interests should Patriot missiles appear in southern Turkey. Besides, the Iranian nuclear issue is also waiting to be solved.

It is noteworthy that the current president of Armenia actually began his campaign at a meeting at the Ministry of Defense, which was attended by virtually the entire government. The Armenian leader urged officials to be more serious and said that the whole system of government must rally around the army. According to experts, this was an unprecedented statement on the eve of the election, albeit not surprising. After all, it is well known that he had come to power by force of arms. And the renewed threats against Baku and the Azerbaijani people as a whole demonstrate again that the leadership of this country has no interest in resolving the Karabakh conflict and, by continuing to deceive its people, proves to be the biggest threat to the region, security and the future of Armenia.

Today, according to Armenian politicians themselves, the country's sovereignty is a rather symbolic concept that exists only on paper, while Sargsyan is left with nothing but bravado which doesn't inspire anyone even in the country. Similarly, his statement that "the European vector of Armenian policies, the military-strategic alliance with Russia and Armenia's membership in the CSTO do not contradict the trends of the Eurasian integration - these are two complementary process" did not convince anyone in Europe.

Just before the elections, Armenia received a severe blow to its reputation from European institutions in the form of an extensive report of the European Strategic Intelligence and Security Centre (ESISC) regarding Armenian-Iranian relations. It must be noted that Armenian-Iranian economic and political ties have never been criticized so sharply before. Yerevan's actions are seen as open sabotage of international sanctions against Iran. On top of that, the head of the PACE observation mission for the presidential election in Armenia, Karin Woldseth, made unflattering remarks about the electoral situation. She expressed "serious concern over the inaccuracies in voter lists" and noted the "general indifference to the election in society and distrust for the electoral process on the part of major political forces". If we consider the fact that the assessment of European observers will first determine whether Armenia will receive assistance worth 1.5 billion euros and, second, whether agreements on free trade and association with the EU will be signed, it appears that Sargsyan and his team will have to work harder "for the European public", deploying all the techniques of "Armenia's euro-imitation". But we have repeatedly witnessed manifestations of double standards on the part of international organizations - both after the bloody events that followed the 2008 presidential election and in the assessments of many other developments in Armenia. 

One way or another, the campaigning of presidential candidates has begun. Their programs are published and widely advertised... In some respects they are alike, in others they are different. They all promise a bright future, criticize and curse each other... One thing is invariable - all programs are infected with the eternal virus which is genetically transmitted from one generation to another - the virus of hatred for Turks. But apparently the "long-suffering" people have nothing to hope for after 18 February. According to one of the leaders of the ANC, Gurgen Yeghiazaryan, "the insanity show" in the country will be continued.