UKRAINE'S UNENVIABLE FATE

Moscow and pro-Russian forces in Ukraine have driven the new government in Kiev into a predicament ahead of the upcoming snap presidential elections.

Following the Russian annexation of Crimea, referendums were held in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine on 11 May to declare their independence from the central government. According to the central election commissions of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics (DPR and LPR), the idea on declaring the independence of the two regions was supported by the overwhelming majority of citizens who cast their votes - 74 per cent in Donetsk with 89 per cent turnout and 96 per cent with 75 percent turnout in Luhansk. 

DPR co-chairman Denis Pushilin, in a statement broadcast by the Russia 24 TV channel after the voting tallies were announced, said the leadership of the self-declared entity plans to hold talks on unification with the LPR leaders.

"We believe that we should move forward together," Pushilin said. "Preliminary negotiations have already taken place. At this point, it is necessary to figure out what it will look like technically."

Moreover, Pushilin made a "DPR appeal" on 12 May, calling upon Russia to consider its accession to the country.

"Pursuant to the expression of will by the people of the Donetsk People's Republic and for the sake of restoring the historic justice, we request that the Russian Federation consider the issue on DPR's accession to the Russian Federation," he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not voiced his own opinion regarding the outcomes of the referendums (though it is not ruled out that he will do so prior to the publication of the article), but his press service, Russia's Foreign Ministry and State Duma (the lower chamber of parliament), welcomed the fact that the vote has taken place and its results, which could be deemed as Moscow's official stance.

The situation over the issue of the Donetsk region's acceding to Russia remains unclear as well. According to most experts, the Kremlin is unlikely to take such a provocative and extremely unpopular step. However, in any case, Moscow is getting a major trump card in the dialogue with the incumbent authorities of Ukraine and their foreign backers, who refused to recognise both the referendums and their outcomes, as stated earlier. Taking a retaliatory step, the rebel Donetsk and Luhansk regions declined to hold presidential elections on their territories on 25 May, labeling them a farce of the illegitimate government in Kiev.

It is remarkable that Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov has stated that derailing the holding of elections in some cities of the country is not grounds at all to cancel the vote, as it will be recognised regardless of voter turnout, all the more so because Washington, which is closely involved in the internal political processes in Ukraine, in the context of the support for the new  government, declared through its Assistant Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, that the presidential elections there are an issue of national security for the United States.

It is worth mentioning that Western powers agree with Washington in their assessment of the importance of holding presidential elections in Ukraine. Likewise, they accuse Moscow of planning to derail the elections. However, the main problem is that Kiev will further have to solve an extremely intricate puzzle regarding recognition of the election results by supporters of the country's federalisation and Russia, instead of its foreign patrons. In this regard, the incumbent Ukrainian authorities unexpectedly encountered an even more serious challenge (former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko) than the decision of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to ignore the presidential elections. Nonetheless, in the backdrop of her years-long struggle for the top post in Ukraine, Tymoshenko's latest statement hardly could be considered unanticipated both for her supporters and for allied opponents from the camp of "Maidan" politicians. Namely, this refers to the remarks made in Mykolaiv where the former prime minister threatened the country with a possibility of another revolutionary wave.

"I don't want to be responsible for the failure of the revolution any more. But if the country elects another president, and currently I actually have one rival, I think we will have to enter a third circle of the revolution, because I see no chance for any changes whatsoever. I just know all these people," she said.

Taking into consideration that the main slogan of Tymoshenko's pre-election campaign is preventing another seizure of power by the oligarchy in Ukraine, it becomes quite evident that the spike of her statement is aimed against the "chocolate king", oligarch Petro Poroshenko, though she did not reference him in her remarks. Another point which deserves attention is the fact that Tymoshenko stated in late April that Poroshenko is dependent on Moscow as he receives business orders from Russia even as the Russian-Ukrainian stand-off is in full swing. But most likely, the outburst of the former prime minister, who was considered one of the wealthiest Ukrainian businesspeople in 1996-1997, was due absolutely not to her aspiration to fight the oligarchy but a real threat of losing the presidential election, which is predicted by preliminary public opinion polls. Moreover, the approval rating of Poroshenko, her main rival, continues to go upward, while the increase in the number of Tymoshenko's supporters is unimpressive.

Ukraine's central election commission has registered 23 candidates for the top state post. Afterwards, pro-Russian politician, MP from the Party of Regions faction Oleg Tsarev, former minister of social policy and the leader of Ukraine Forward party, Natalya Korolevskaya, and the leader of the New Kiev civil union, Zoryan Shkiryak, withdrew from the election race based on different considerations. However, this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the outcome of the election due to their low approval ratings. The staunch struggle is unfolding within the so-called "group of four leaders", which includes Yulia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, self-nominated candidate from the Party of Regions, former deputy prime minister Serhiy Tihipko, and Mikhail Dobkin, a single Party of Regions nominee who previously headed the 

Kharkov regional public administration. Until recently, Tymoshenko and Poroshenko were considered to be the frontrunners in this group. About two months ago, some 25 percent of voters were ready to support Poroshenko, but now the figure has reached 40 percent. It is possible that such a significant increase in the number of potential voters is also due to the decision of UDAR party leader Vitali Klitschko, who was then ahead of the former prime minister (8.9 percent against 8.2 percent for Tymoshenko), to back Poroshenko. After giving up his presidential ambitions, Klitschko, in turn, secured considerable support to contest the mayoral seat in Kiev by supporting oligarch Poroshenko. By the way, such an alliance considerably strengthens the positions of both hopefuls. 

As for Tymoshenko, she took the second spot in the rankings in early May, with 9.5 percent approval rating. However, the latest telephone survey commissioned by ТСН and conducted throughout Ukraine showed that the former prime minister, with 8.8 percent popular support, was surpassed by Serhiy Tihipko, who was supported by 9 percent of those polled. Even her controversial remarks concerning the Russian population of Ukraine in which she threatened to shoot them with a nuclear weapon failed to bring her the coveted dividends. To the contrary, this outburst led her to the ranks of such far-right radical politicians as the head of Svoboda (Freedom) party, Oleh Tyahnybok, and the leader of the Right Sector group Dmitry Yarosh, which cannot evoke any empathy neither in the Ukrainian people nor the West, especially since the West, which had vigorously supported Tymoshenko's ambitions for a long time, is currently openly demonstrating that it favours Poroshenko. 

The former prime minister is accustomed to being in the spotlight of all political controversies and has been struggling for absolute power in Ukraine for many years, therefore, such "ungratefulness" of the foreign patrons implies a political demise for her. Such a prospect is particularly aggravating for her given that her associates have taken the top posts in the country. Alexander Turchynov serves as Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada (parliament) speaker and acting president; Arseniy Yatsenyuk as prime minister, and Arsen Avakov as Interior Minister, while Tymoshenko's party, Batkyvshchina (Fatherhood) is represented in the government by one deputy prime minister and five ministers. It is quite likely that their main objective was securing Tymoshenko's ascent to the political grandstand with possible use of administrative resources. However, it appears that this plan is failing. Most likely, this lied at the core of the proposal made by Yatsenyuk during his speech in parliament in late April to significantly curb the president's powers in favour of the prime minister's seat, which hypothetically could be taken by Tymoshenko in the future.

It is also quite possible that Yatsenyuk is considering this prospect for himself, setting the stage for giving up the obligations to Tymoshenko. The actions of some former close associates of Tymoshenko could serve as an example of this. Notably, two active members of her team representing the Batkyvshchina party, Nikolai Tomenko and Yuriy Lutsenko, switched political camps to join Poroshenko, her main opponent in the elections. But the former prime minister is not one of the timid politicians and can reap benefits even from a lose-lose situation. This is proven by another statement in which she pledged to recognise the outcome of the presidential election, but with a certain stipulation. 

"I am the last person in the country who would like new revolutions to take place," she said. "If the people elect their president in a fair election, I will recognise that election and will work for the opposition or the authorities."

In other words, Tymoshenko warned her opponents and even her associates that she does not promise their lives will be easy and calm. But the most aggravating part is the fact that it is the Ukrainian people who are paying a bill for this, and it is unknown at this point how long this predicament will persist.