"SPRING" FOR MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

Egypt has begun to live under a new Basic Law. The country of the victorious "Arab revolution" recognized the principles of Shari'ah as the basis of its statehood. And now the whole world is wondering what changes the gradual Islamization of the Egyptian state, led by Muslim Brotherhood, from which the leader of the Arab Republic of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, hails, can cause in the Middle East.

"The constitutional framework of the Second Republic"

The draft of the new Egyptian Constitution, based on the principles of Islamic law, was supported by more than 60 per cent of voters in a nationwide referendum, which was held in two phases - on 15 and 22 December 2012. Thus, President Mohamed Morsi achieved his purpose despite strong protests that turned into bloody street battles between supporters of the government and the opposition. For several weeks at the end of last year, Egypt was on the brink of civil war, but that did not stop Muslim Brotherhood, who considered the establishment of an Islamic constitution to be one of the fundamental tasks of their rule.

Signing a new draft constitution, President Morsi said in his address to the nation that the majority of Egyptians support the draft Constitution - evidence of "the triumph of democracy". He announced the formation of a "new republic", which, in fact, points to break with the system of government that has existed in Egypt since 1952 when the Egyptian monarchy was overthrown.

"We are beginning a new phase, a transition from the first to the second republic, which already has a strong constitutional base," Morsi stated, adding that the adopted Constitution guarantees "human dignity" and protects the right to work, education and health.

The situation that came about as a result of the adoption of the new Constitution can be considered quite favourable for Morsi and his team, however, there are a number of "buts" that do not allow us, at least for now, to talk about the complete and unconditional triumph of the new Egyptian government.

The two revolutionary years that marked the fall of Hosni Mubarak's regime and the coming to power of an elected president, who was the representative of Islamists, Mohamed Morsi, plunged Egypt into an unprecedented economic crisis, forcing the Muslim Brotherhood government to ask foreign forces, primarily the West, for billions in loans. The Egyptian authorities understand that without significant foreign investment, they will not be able to cope with the crisis, which directly hit the country's main economic sector - tourism.

In addition, another major problem is the fact that in recent months, the outflow of capital from the Egyptian economy has taken on a menacing scale, which is due to local entrepreneurs' lack of confidence that the situation in the country will stabilize and that an attractive environment for business activities will be created under the Islamists. It is no accident that one of the first decisions of President Morsi after the referendum was a ban on the export of more than 10,000 US dollars by natural persons from Egypt.

Morsi makes no secret of his intent to continue his series of highly unpopular decisions to implement tough economic reforms. In particular, it is an increase in taxes and cuts in public spending. The only question is whether the proposed measures will have the appropriate rapid effect, particularly given the not very favourable foreign market conditions developing under the influence of the West's increasingly cautious attitude towards the political objectives of Muhammad Morsi.

"National Dialogue" or "theatre of farce"?

The US and Europe are signaling to the new government of Egypt that they seriously doubt the ability of President Morsi and his team to bring the revolution to its logical end, the goals and objectives of which the West sees only in liberal democratization. Western countries have actually suspended financial aid to Egypt, citing the unstable situation in the country full of unpredictable consequences. Obviously, the West is wary of some of Morsi's actions, which, depending on the interpretation of their political content, can be evaluated as an indicator of adherence to principles, or errors of the new head of the Egyptian state.

Thus, the West criticized Morsi's desire before the referendum to assume legislative powers and reduce the role of higher courts. These decisions of the president, as well as the hasty holding of the constitutional referendum contrary to the opinion of secular circles provoked protests, and while curbing them Morsi could not refrain even from using force.

Yet even today, no one can guarantee that Egypt will be able to avoid a new round of hard political infighting. After all, a large part of the population, known as liberal-democratic circles, is against Islamization, to which, in their opinion, the new Constitution dooms the country. Even Muhammad Morsi himself was forced to acknowledge that a significant number of voters voted against the Constitution. Accordingly, the president called on the opposition for dialogue.

"We witnessed great political differences on the draft of the new Constitution. Various political forces took different positions, which is a normal process in a society moving towards democracy, and from a variety of ideas and opinions, the people choose those that reflect their interests and aspirations," Morsi said.

But the opposition says the president's efforts towards national dialogue are belated, believing that they have to be made in developing and discussing the draft Constitution.

The uncompromising position of the opposition at this stage is due to the fact that Morsi, they believe, is personally guilty of incitement to the murder of peaceful protesters ahead of the referendum.

The main opposition force - the National Salvation Front - describes the Morsi-initiated "national dialogue" as a "theatre of farce", and the Constitution adopted in the referendum as "invalid". Opposition leaders announce plans for new mass demonstrations ahead of the parliamentary elections that should be held in two months in accordance with the new Constitution. So it is too early to talk about the stabilization of the situation in Egypt any time soon. And although another strong player in the political arena of the country - the army and its commanders express neutrality, they still do not hide their ambiguous attitude to the new authorities represented by the leadership of Muslim Brotherhood.

In the meantime, it is the victory in the parliamentary elections that may consolidate the previous achievements of the Islamists and the positions of President Mohamed Morsi personally. Only then, can we talk about the "Arab revolution" finally tuning to a conservative-clerical mood in one of the largest and most powerful countries of the Muslim world and about the final legitimization of "political Islam" as a token of things to come not only in states of the victorious "spring", but also in the whole of the Middle and Near East. The heralds of this are, apparently, the significant changes in the Israeli-Palestinian vector of Cairo's policy.

"The shift of 180 degrees may take some time"

President Morsi is known to be one of the masterminds and guarantors of the armistice that put an end to the recent Israeli military operation in Gaza. The Egyptian leader is demonstrating his commitment to the previous international obligations of Cairo, including the Camp David Accords, which laid the foundation of modern relations between Egypt and Israel. However, the emerging tendency of the new Egyptian strategy is that the Jewish state cannot count on the durability of such restraint by the Islamist leadership of the "land of pyramids".

In that sense, the statement of the Egyptian president's adviser Isam Al-Arian, who is also a deputy chairman of the Party for Freedom and Justice, which is considered the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood movement, is quite remarkable. Cairo's official representative said that "the Egyptian Jews can return to their home country and get their property back" since "every Egyptian has the right to return" and "Jews deserve Egypt more than Israel". At first glance, it is hard to see anything in these words that goes against the interests of the Jews, however, explaining his own appeal, Mohamed Morsi's adviser said that "all Jews living in Israel should go back to their home countries", meaning Europe and Arab countries. Stressing that "the Zionist idea is crashing", Al-Arian expressed confidence that Israel will cease to exist in the next ten years and there will be only "Palestine, where the Arabs, Jews and Christians will live".

The office of the Egyptian president hastened to say that Isam al-Arian voiced only his personal opinion, not the official position of the head of state. And Arian himself also said: "I am not speaking on behalf of all of Egypt, but only on my own behalf." But who will believe that Al-Arian did not express the true aspirations of the new Egyptian leadership, which, in the context of the "Arab revolution" that leads to the rise of the Islamist political forces to power over and over again, positions itself as a mouthpiece of the resurgent Arab world?

Undoubtedly, the tightening of Egypt's position on Israel and, therefore, the tightening of prospects for a Middle East conflict settlement promises to be one of the characteristic features of the new geopolitical landscape of the Holy Land, which has been torn by the bloody confrontation between Arabs and Israelis for so many decades. This is indicated, in particular, by the intention of Cairo to establish a "close relationship" with the Lebanese radical movement Hezbollah, whose pro-Iranian orientation previously antagonized the Islamist forces of Egypt. What is particularly significant is that in an interview with the Lebanese newspaper Daily Star, the Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon Ashraf Hamdi said that as a resistance movement whose goal is to protect Lebanese territory, Hezbollah has achieved a lot in the fight against Israeli occupation.

Of course, such a statement by the Egyptian diplomat is a rather unpleasant fact for Israel. But the words of Hamdi that the internal problems of Egypt prevent it from attaining ambitious foreign policy goals and that the "shift of 180 degrees can take some time" are far more important. However, the ambassador said, Egypt will still emerge as a real regional power.

Thus, Israel got a serious message about what it should expect from the new Egyptian government. It is symbolic that these days, Tel Aviv has completed the construction on the border with Egypt of a 230-mile wall designed to prevent the entry of militants of radical movements into Israel. However, this fact is unlikely to stop the implementation of the shift in Egyptian policy in the Middle East mentioned by Hamdi. Only one thing can stop Muslim Brotherhood on this path - serious resistance to their policy inside Egypt itself. The upcoming parliamentary elections, of course, will be another test for the country's leadership. Only overcoming it, will President Morsi and his government be able to focus not only on domestic measures that meet the letter and spirit of the new Constitution, but also on the implementation of "ambitious foreign policy goals" coinciding with the long-cherished plans of Muslim Brotherhood.