MOCK ELECTIONS

The development of the political situation in Armenia continues to spring surprises. The country is entering the final stage of the election race, with parliamentary elections being held here in February. However, many people are convinced that, essentially, the "election intrigue" is already over.

A "gentlemen's" agreement

When Gagil Tsarukyan, the "vodka oligarch" and leader of "Prosperous Armenia" (PPA), the party with a discreditable title given the present situation, declared that he would not be standing at the elections, most experts saw this as part of a cunning pre-election game. Everyone looked forward to Gagik Tsarukyan, who gained a solid 30% of the vote at the last plebiscite, "playing up" to either Serzh Sargsyan, Levon Ter-Petrosyan or Robert Kocharyan. The "Brussels scandal" surrounding the head of the PPA added to the intrigue. During his visit to Belgium, Gagik Tsarukyan, who is not particularly known for his bold statements about the authorities, described them as corrupt. "In a casual conversation (with the deputy speaker of the European Parliament - editor's note) Gagik Tsarukyan expressed the opinion that it was impossible to fight corruption in the country if the main corrupt people were heading this struggle," a PA press service report points out. Actually Tsarukyan, in the presence of a European bureaucrat, without naming names, indirectly accused President Serzh Sargsyan, Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan, as well as the heads of the law-enforcement bodies, of being corrupt, the "168 Zham" paper notes.

The Sargsyan team's response followed almost immediately. The deputy speaker of the Armenian parliament and press secretary of the Armenian Republican Party (RPA), Eduard Sharmazanov, commenting on a report distributed by the PPA on the visit of party leader Gagik Tsarukyan to Brussels, said: "I think this report is shameful. It is obviously a stage show put on for a domestic audience, but I have to say that the first part of this performance is linked precisely with the "Prosperous Armenia" Party and its leader, because not all of it should have been made public, and not all of it was justified."

According to reports in the Armenian press, a private meeting took place between the Armenian president and leader of the ruling Armenian Republican Party, Serzh Sargsyan, and the head of the PPA, Gagik Tsarukyan. "According to conversations going the rounds in their closest circle, Sargsyan said that he would interpret any decision by "Prosperous Armenia" regarding the presidential elections in the normal way, so long as everything is done "in a gentlemanly way". Sargsyan appealed all the time "not to avoid" the situation and not to create tension.

"The presidential elections will be the most critical period in the whole of Armenia's history, and this is not so much because of the domestic situation as the economic crisis and the intensifying struggle of the centres of power for the region. Russia has been teeming with activity in the region, and everything that is happening in the Armenian domestic political arena should be viewed in the context of the stand-off between the West and Russia," Ashot Manucharyan, a former chief advisor to the Armenian president on national security, believes. He said that through the PPA, which is working with the ARFD and the Armenian National Congress (ANC),

Moscow has obtained a strong mechanism for action in Armenia, a counterbalance to the forces of the West, one of whose representatives the ruling PPA is.

Having "elbowed aside" his main rival from the presidential race, Sargsyan could have promised Tsarukyan that he would put his interests forward after the elections. There could be changes in the country's administrative structures. Many people have already begun discussing the post-election processes in Armenia because the pre-election race has imploded before it has even begun. Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Armenia's first president and leader of the leading opposition party - Armenian National Congress - followed Tsarukyan in refusing to stand. "As far as I am aware, so far no-one has raised the question as to whether a 68-year old man who respects his country can stand for president. In the developed democratic countries such things don't normally happen," he said in an interview to the "Chorrord Inqknishkhanutyun" newspaper.  He then noted that, of course, there are exceptions: "But, as a rule, they arise in extreme circumstances, when because of external threats or chaos within a country and an uncontrollable situation, the political elite, with the support of society, sometimes even in breach of the Constitution, invites elderly but highly respected politicians with the ability to consolidate to take the helm. Churchill, Adenauer, De Gaulle, Shevardnadze, Heydar Aliyev and Mario Monti were typical examples." As far as his native Armenia is concerned, in the opinion of Levon Akopovich, "the situation in Armenia is not chaotic, and there is no lack of governability of the country. On the contrary, the problem is there is too much control, where everything is centralized in the hands of a group of criminals who have seized power. Consequently, there is no demand at the moment to get rid of chaos and turn the country into a governable state, and even if there were it would not mean that I would necessarily be the one who would satisfy that demand".

The "conqueror" of the Armenians

The most dramatic event in the Armenian election campaign was the congress of the Armenian Republican Party where Serzh Sargsyan was officially nominated as presidential candidate.

That said, the incumbent Armenian president even tried to "keep up with the Joneses", i.e. behave as if he were in a civilized country, and even to read from the rostrum something akin to a "review report", superimposed with an election manifesto. However, in fact the whole of its text was an attempt to argue against the well-known saying that however much sugar you may put in your mouth it won't taste any sweeter. He assiduously tried to assure his audience that Armenia was prosperous and that during his first presidential term he had succeeded in pulling the country out of a financial-economic crisis, and, principally, "to save thousands of jobs". Without doubt, this turn of phrase should be interpreted as Sargsyan know-how: usually in such instances presidents, prime ministers, governors and so on name among their achievements such things as creating jobs, not "saving" them. And if a head of state speaks about "saving jobs", then this only means that there are no new jobs and there are not likely to be.

And there are other "achievements", enumerated by Sargsyan, from the same series. Like the one where under his leadership the government "held back an increase in the prices for gas, water and electricity". Against a background of the inexorable "subsidence" of the national currency, consumer panic, criminal terror and the "privatization" of authority by the oligarchs, and in a situation where in Armenia because of rampant crime and blatant bribery foreign charities ceased their activities and the country gave up its "Challenges of the Millennium" programme, Sargsyan was talking about accessible financial stability. At odd moments he did not forget to threaten Azerbaijan, whimsically demanding first the pull-out of snipers, then Artsakh's admittance to the conference table. Then he added: "We are already starting the final decisive game." Against whom, he did not make clear - it is either against common sense or the interests of the Armenian people.

In such a situation and with such a programme Serzh Azatovich can only count on victory if there are non-alternative elections. The rejection of struggle by Gagik Tsarukyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan, as well as the ARF Dashnaktsutyun and the communists allows him to rely on such a scenario.

Teacher, political analyst, karate expert, pensioner, unemployed worker and Sargsyan 

The Armenian electorate is not familiar with the majority of those who wish to take part in the forthcoming presidential elections. Among those who would like to see themselves in the post of head of state in Armenia there are, for example, an expert on the interpretation of runes and myths, a karate expert, a pensioner, a teacher from the pedagogical institute, an unemployed worker, and so on. After the Armenian Central Electoral Commission finished accepting documents for the nomination of presidential candidates, it transpired that many of the aforementioned were unable to present the required papers, including receipts for the payment of the deposit of 8m drams (about $20,000).

As far as familiar names in the presidential race are concerned, one may single out Paruyr Hayrikyan, a dissident from Soviet times who, calling himself the "lone soldier", asks for financial aid from his people in order to stand; the leader of the Freedom Party and former prime minister, Grant Bagratyan, and also the head of the "Heritage" parliamentary party, Raffi Ovannisyan.

The latter was a "celebrity" from outside Armenia. It will be recalled that at the session of the 7th General Assembly of the International Conference of Asian Political Parties, which was held in Baku, Mr Ovannisyan tried to arrange a scandal with his sick statements and behaviour which evoked sarcasm even in his own country. In the opinion of experts, having no other levers of influence on the Armenian electorate, Raffi Ovannisyan arranged a pre-election show in Baku. But the "Baku dividends" may help Ovannisyan to obtain perhaps third place at the elections, the outcome of which everyone knows.

Many observers are making ironical statements that Serzh Sargsyan will become president, having beaten an expert on myths, a pensioner and an unemployed worker. The main problem for the Armenian authorities is the lack of a real political struggle and pre-election intrigues in political platforms which would evoke interest among Armenian citizens. The people of the country are demonstrating their dissent through emigration. And since the elections have been deprived of the rivalry component, it is already possible to speak about a victory for Sargsyan. Perhaps even a "final victory", which he spoke about at his party congress.