12 MOMENTS OF 2012

The year 2012 was rich in terms of political events and turbulences. Some conducted elections, others sought to seize power, third fought their neighbours, fourth attempted to overcome the crisis… It is impossible to list everything and it may be too early to assess everything that happened. History will put everything in its place. But it would be useful to make a short review of the political landscape of the year past. And now about everything in order. 

Forward with Putin

Vladimir Putin was elected president of the Russian Federation in spring 2012 for the third time. Analysts believe that this result was partially predictable because there was no real alternative. 

Meanwhile, straight after his return to the presidential post for the first time in his rule he encountered growing social activity that resulted in thousands of unhappy citizens taking to streets. But the strong arm of the Putin's government managed to maintain domestic political stability in the country.

As opposed to his predecessor Dmitriy Medvedev, known as a politician with more moderate foreign policies, the hard-line views of Putin on acute global problems again became one of the determining factors of the Russian foreign policy. The new old president immediately kicked off the process of the Post-Soviet integration under the aegis of the Eurasian Union, which according to a number of analysts is nothing else but a project for restoring the Soviet Union.   

Au revoir, Sarkozy!

France, in April 2012, held a presidential election in which incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy lost to Socialist Francois Hollande.

This was the second election in the history of the Fifth Republic that brought a socialist to the presidency, and the second one in which the incumbent president was defeated. The Socialists won not only the presidential, but also the parliamentary elections.

On the eve of his election campaign Sarkozy was accused that his first presidential campaign in 2007 was sponsored by the exiled Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Despite the denial of this fact by Nicolas Sarkozy, the news had some impact.

Sarkozy's attempt to achieve the adoption of the law criminalizing denial of the so-called "Armenian genocide" in the Ottoman Empire played a significant role in the fall in his ratings. First, the initiative, which caused deterioration of French-Turkish relations, created resentment among those working closely with Turkey: French businessmen and industrialists.

Second, the bill was eventually rejected by the Constitutional Commission as contrary to the Constitution of France. This led in turn to the dismay of the Armenian diaspora in France, for whom Sarkozy designed step.

The sad events of the "Toulouse shooter" when terrorist Mohammed of Algerian descent attacked the French military and the Jewish school, have also influenced the balance of political forces. Anti-immigration and anti-Islamic sentiments helped nationalist leader Marine Le Pen to enter the third place in the election.

However, six months after beating Sarkozy Hollande has a pretty low rating. He is the first president in the history of France, supported by only 43% of the population after 100 days of government.

Obama 2.0

To the last minute it was not easy to predict the outcome of the US presidential election where the incumbent president from the Democratic Party, Barack Obama, faced the opposition of Republican candidate Mitt Romney. While the poor economy and the rising foreign debt were the trump cards of the opposition, the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan and the physical elimination of Osama bin Laden in the first term in office, as well as the efficiency of rescue measures in the aftermath of Typhoon Sandy at the last minute helped Barack Obama to go on second term. In addition, the Democrats convinced the public that the culprit of the economic crisis was the policy of the previous administration of George W. Bush, and won not only the White House, but also maintained a majority in the Senate. According to the American political tradition, during his second term of the president usually enjoys more freedom in the choice of his actions, because he will not need to look at the need for re-election. Therefore we can expect from Barack Obama greater autonomy in the formation of his administration and more daring breakthroughs.

Has Georgian dream come true? 

But in Georgia the ruling party could not hold on to its positions, and the parliamentary election was won by the opposition bloc "Georgian Dream" under the direction of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. Saakashvili's defeat was a surprise for his supporters. During the years in power the president's administration has achieved a lot: regained control over Adjaria, increased the tax collection many times over, modernized governance, eliminated petty corruption and suppressed the crime.

However, for the great part of the population, especially the middle and older age groups as well as the majority of those with low levels of education and training, the situation has improved only slightly.

Despite the victory, you cannot talk about strengthening the power of the "Georgian Dream". Arrests of Saakashvili's supporters, some controversial steps in foreign policy, and that tradition of Georgian voters - to make a political leader into an idol of a savoir, and then with the same enthusiasm to overthrow him - give reasons to believe that the Saakashvili team still has chances of striking back.

Crisis of joint space

For the European Union 2012 was rather unsuccessful. Once the selected two tranches failed to help the southern European countries, the central bank was forced in summer to come to the rescue again - the guarantors of the stability of the national currency have the right to buy unlimited amount of government bonds of troubled countries. The main worry is to save the euro at all costs.

In 2012, the major European countries decided to create a stabilization fund of 700 billion euros, and in December it was announced that a bank union, which will give the ECB the opportunity only to support but also to control the banks - members of the Eurozone.

The result remains a stalemate. Europe seems to have finally split into strong and weak. But once it was regarded as the cradle of universal equality. Disputes over rescue initiatives taken by European governments increasingly undermine the trust of politicians in each other, while their own citizens have long lost interest and confidence.

Ongoing conflict

Syria continues to burn in the flame of a civil war. According to various estimates between 25,000 and 35,000 people fell victim over the two years of the armed conflict of the Bashar Assad regime and the opposition forces. The external factor is growing stronger, not only in the shape of political support and weapon supplies, but also direct military threats from abroad. The situation between Turkey and Syria reached an extreme after the Turkish town of Akcakale on the border with Syria came under missile fire. Following the endorsement by the Turkish parliament of military operations abroad everybody talked about an intervention of the Turkish army in Syria. However, failing to receive real support from its NATO allies and encountering a powerful opposition in the shape of public protests within the country, the Turkish leadership did not dare to take this risky step.

Instead, and in the face of opposition from Iran and Russia Turkey asked NATO to deploy on its territory Patriot missiles in case of possible shelling from Syria. NATO officials responded positively. Germany, the Netherlands and USA agreed on deploying the batteries in the proximity of the border with Syria.

Israel - Palestine: no winners 

An important development in 2012 was the operation "Pillar of Cloud" undertaken by the Israeli army against Hamas militants in response to rocket attacks on Israeli territory. During the operation several military leaders of Hamas were killed, and many stores of weapons and ammunition were destroyed. As a result of the "Pillar of Cloud" operation carried out by the Israeli army more than 160 Palestinians were killed. Four Israelis were victims of rocket attacks from the Palestinian side. A characteristic feature of the recent escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict is the fact that both sides declared themselves winners.

And Palestinians really have a certain reason to rejoice. At least because Israel the most powerful army in the region, failed to achieve the defeat of Hamas. But the latter for the first time in the history of the conflict struck with missiles Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. This fact shows that the Palestinians continue to increase their power. And not just in military terms. For almost immediately after the eight-day war the UN General Assembly in its decision elevated the status of the Palestinian mission to the organization to the level "of an observer state" and affirmed the right of Palestinians to self-determination within the territories occupied by Israel in 1967.

No end to revolution

It seems that Israel will also have difficult relations with another neighbour, Egypt, where the leader of the Islamic fundamentalist party Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Mursi, became president. Mursi came to power thanks in part to the fact that a majority of voters in Egypt are representatives of the religious, conservative rural population, who supported him in the election. The majority of city dwellers are advocates of a liberal course of democratic reform toward the western model. Their dissatisfaction with the policy of Islamization of the country led to the fact that at the end of the year the very Tahrir Square in Cairo, where nearly two years ago started the Egyptian revolution that overthrew the Mubarak regime, now began to gather huge crowds of demonstrators protesting against the new president of Egypt.

The secular, liberal-oriented part of the Egyptian society has good reasons to believe that President Mursi and Muslim Brothers who support him are establishing a new dictatorship in the country - an Islamist one.

Guilt of "innocence"

In 2012 in most of the Islamic world a wave of protests occurred against the emergence of the Internet film "Innocence of Muslims", where the prophet of Islam was shown in a humiliating manner. Most violent events took place in the Libyan city of Benghazi, where on September 11 this year under mysterious circumstances the "founding father" of the Libyan revolution, the US ambassador to the country, Christopher Stevens, and three diplomats were killed. As a result, the United States acquired the right to send their troops anywhere in the world to protect its diplomatic missions, the fundamentalists in Muslim countries have strengthened their positions, and the nationalists in Europe were able to prove the failure of the idea of multiculturalism.

"Martyrs" 

In the past year religious feelings of many Orthodox Christians were hurt in connection with the sensational action hosted by the punk band Pussy Riot at Christ the Savoir Cathedral.

The action, which will soon be dubbed as a "punk prayer," was organized in the right place (the centre of Moscow), and at the right time, on the eve of the presidential election. At the same time in Moscow and other major Russian cities held protests, the Western media are talking about the incredible social activity, as opposition leaders, forgetting past contradictions, called upon the people to radical actions. But all of this protest movement was in need of a symbol.

Pussy Riot's actions at Christ the Savoir Cathedral became this symbol. Three weeks later the group of three activists was detained. For their antics in the main church of Russia the participants were detained, convicted of disorderly conduct and received appropriate sentences.

However, the Western media and legal organizations raised such a fuss about the matter that members of the band from simple nobodies ready to do anything for immediate fame have become almost political martyrs persecuted by a tyranny.

Breivik's lessons

The legal paradoxes of Europe, sometimes reaching the point of absurdity, were very revealing at the trial of the Norwegian gunman Breivik. Thus, the court found Breivik sane and sentenced him to 21 years in prison for the murder of 77 people. In other words, for every person he murdered the terrorist got a little over three months. The Norwegian law, it appears, cannot give a harsher sentence. Moreover, he must be imprisoned in excellent conditions: the three-room apartment with a gym and an office (probably for him to continue working on his famous manifesto). It is no coincidence that the Breivik trial turned into a platform for the announcement of their fascist ideas and a public relations campaign.

Experts predicted that as Anders Breivik received a ridiculous punishment for his terrible crime his imitators may follow. Unfortunately, they were right.

Not the end of the world…

And in conclusion. No apocalypse or third world war, as we predicted in 2012, fortunately, came. With all due respect to the ancient Mayan civilisation it is absurd to believe in the calendar of the tribe that believed the Earth was flat and lying on the back of a giant crocodile floating in the vast pool, overgrown with lily! Today, when 21 December and the whole year is over, people are asking who profited from this? Marketers, tour operators or stock market players? Whatever it was, 2012 is over, and begins year 2013 - year of the Snake. A snake is known to be the sign of wisdom and change.