ANOTHER POLE

The Cold War between Moscow and Washington is actually resuming on the Eurasian continent and in the heart of Europe. But while all eyes are on Ukraine and, of course, traditionally on the Middle East, other regions can also have their say in the geopolitical struggle for influence in the world. One such region is Latin America, which has been engaged in a more active foreign policy in recent years, but which Eurasia and the United States understandably see somewhat indifferently and peripherally.

Of course, everyone is familiar with this continent, the world's stronghold of Catholicism, which has experienced military dictatorships and national liberation movements and has given the world immortal revolutionary romantic images, drug barons who are no different from them by their charisma and a strong "leftist" movement ... Latin America occupies 15 per cent of the global land area (8.5 per cent of the world population), provides more than 8 per cent of the world's total industrial production and 13 per cent of agricultural production and holds 20 per cent of world oil reserves. Countries in this part of the world have enormous natural resources and vast reserves of fresh water. Amazon tropic rainforests produce about 50 per cent of oxygen on Earth, not to mention the human potential - it is expected that by 2030-2035 the region will be populated by about 700 million people. But as an actor in world politics, Latin America has yet to become another centre of the global political game. Although in fact, if you remember, it was the Caribbean region that was the scene of some of the most stressful events during the first Cold War, and the Island of Freedom was a key ally of Moscow in its battle with the West over a large period of time. What to expect from Latin America in the recently launched second round?

It has always been assumed that countries of the Caribbean basin and Latin America are part of the zone of influence of North America, which is based on the old "Monroe Doctrine" aimed at US dominance in the Americas and at turning Latin America into "Washington's backyard". For decades the US has proved it with its military bases in the region, transnational companies and visible and invisible presence in the domestic politics of many states. Eventually, however, the American "strong arm" in the region sparked opposition, which, especially in the 2000s, led to a search for other points of support - China, the EU and Russia. The adverse side effect of neoliberal reforms in the last century led to leftist leanings. Incidentally, it was in this period that the further development of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) failed - it was impossible to unite all countries in North and South America into a single bloc, apparently, because it was clear from the very beginning - members of the union would be too unequal. Latin American countries now have a chance to change the direction of their development - towards a much more independent policy and independence from an economy based on raw materials.

This is facilitated by the fact that in general the economic situation in Latin America is pretty good, even despite the fact that the population of this part of the globe is socially very heterogeneous and approximately 160m people live below the poverty line. Environmental issues and all effects associated with rapid urbanization are making themselves felt. But Latin American countries are rushing forward and betting on technological development and innovation.

Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are members of G20, which is believed to become more significant and influential than its "big sister" - G8. Now that G8 has turned into G7 because of Russia's expulsion, this process can be accelerated. In addition, Brazil has long been claiming a permanent UN Security Council seat. By the way, along with the fact that this country has a strong position in BRICS, Brazil is more and more willing to try the role of a regional leader. Argentina and Venezuela have similar positions and ambitions - they also tend to play a key role in the integration of the Latin American continent and a more visible role in the international arena.

Latin America is becoming one of the key regions for China, which has already become a major trading partner of Brazil and Argentina. Chinese investment plays a crucial role in many infrastructure and energy projects in the region, strengthening the role of Beijing and ousting the United States.

Russia is also showing its interest. For example, cooperation with Latin America in the military- industrial sector is of great benefit to it. Amid Western sanctions, arms trade, which brings huge profit, is gaining a big role for Russia. Moscow has contracts or is negotiating with Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba. Russia and Latin American countries are not rivals in the international economic area, so they have a good chance to make a deal. Also, there is also talk that the Kremlin seeks to ensure the presence of navy and military aircraft in some countries of Latin America. And finally, do not forget that Latin America is the key to the shores of Antarctica with its large amount of untapped hydrocarbon reserves. Their time will come some day.

It is noteworthy that this year presidential elections will be held in many South American countries - among them there are key countries such as Colombia, Brazil and Bolivia, and next year presidential elections will be held in Argentina. They will largely determine the future development of Latin America and its place on the world stage. To ensure stability, Latin American countries need a growing middle class, which traditionally smoothes radical sentiment on both flanks. It is also necessary to overcome such problems as internal conflicts, drug trafficking, criminal activity, separatist sentiment in some countries and territorial disputes.

Will Latin America be able to become one of the poles of the multipolar world? Perhaps this issue will be resolved now. But as long as there is no single centre of power on the continent, it will be difficult to do so. Given the modern world's desire to build coalitions and supranational economic and political associations, Latin America simply cannot but participate in this process. The only question is with what ambitions, priorities and real trump cards?

In Latin America, there are a lot of different integration blocs so this can make the head of an untrained person spin. This is, for example, the Pacific Alliance, the MERCOSUR economic association, the "leftist" Bolivarian Alliance (ALBA) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which is an attempt to unify all 33 states. And finally, it is BRICS, which, of course, is not Latin American, but includes Brazil. In addition, it was reported recently that India, Brazil and South Africa are in favour of Argentina joining this union.

Through blocs one can trace and predict the major economic and geopolitical priorities of Latin America and point out the main shortcomings of interaction between regional countries. Is there any chance that Latin America has a chance to create a sustainable political bloc or a supranational body like the EU? So far, this idea seems to be difficult to achieve, though it has long been in the air - since the days of the struggle for independence. To some extent, the question is whether the South American countries will continue their further integration with the traditional focus on the United States or whether the process will take place with other benchmarks? Besides the natural counteraction of Washington, there are a number of internal undercurrents. For example, the elimination of American influence is of benefit to Brazil, which claims to be the regional leader, but many other countries of the region are wary or even openly hostile towards the ambitions of Brazil.

Meanwhile, according to many observers, the development of the conflict in Venezuela, where riots and demonstrations against the policies of the Venezuelan authorities have been continuing since February, is crucial now. During this time, 42 people have already been killed. President Nicolas Maduro's term of office ends in 2019, but the opposition is going to remove him from power through a referendum in 2016.

It is noteworthy that, according to Venezuelan Tourism Minister Andres Izarra, "there was an attempted coup based on the Ukrainian scenario in the country, but, in contrast to Kiev, the protests failed to reach such a scale, limiting themselves to individual outbreaks". Earlier Maduro himself spoke about it. Venezuelan Interior Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres presented evidence that the Venezuelan opposition is linked to runaway bankers, the former presidents of Mexico and Colombia, Alvaro Uribe and Vicente Fox, as well as former US official Otto Reich.

Venezuelan politicians believe that what is happening in their country was provoked by the US - Americans allegedly resort to support from ultra-right forces, fascists and Colombian paramilitary groups. The reason is the desire to deal a crushing blow to the left and centre-left governments in Latin America and gain more influence on politics in Latin America and access to vast oil reserves.

Of course, the events in Venezuela and Ukraine are hardly links of one chain. Rather, they are two different manifestations of the same process to change the global balance of geopolitical forces. And in this process, Latin America probably has a choice - to remain a peripheral region, a kind of extension for the West, or to become a strong actor in world politics and another pole of power.