REALITIES OF THE MODERN WORLD

When in mid-May the OSCE Minsk Group did not find in Baku the president and foreign minister of Azerbaijan, who had left for Shanghai to attend the summit on security measures in Asia, some commentators interpreted this as a snub to the mediators' mission and even as an expression of dissatisfaction by Baku with their unproductive activities. Then, in my comments on this occasion, I advised them not to jump to conclusions and suggested that if the co-chairs of the Minsk Group really have something to tell the Azerbaijani leadership, they will wait for the president to return or will come back again. It is, after all, their job.

And so it happened. On 31 May, President Ilham Aliyev received the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Igor Popov (Russia), James Warlick (USA) and Jacques Faure (France), who had come specially to meet with him, as well as the newly-appointed representative of this country, Pierre Andre, who will begin to work soon. The meeting was also attended by the personal representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Andrzej Kasprzyk. The Minsk Group co-chairs informed the president of Azerbaijan about the results of their recent visit to the region and shared new ideas and suggestions, which, in their opinion, could be discussed by the parties to the conflict.

Almost immediately after the visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, Baku was visited by the president of the Swiss Confederation, Didier Burkhalter, on 2 June. Azerbaijan has very close relations with this small but very influential European country. Suffice it to say that this was the third visit to Azerbaijan by the Swiss president over the past six years. President Ilham Aliyev also paid an official visit to Switzerland and visits it every year during the World Economic Forum in Davos. However, this visit was paid by Didier Burkhalter as the president of a country, which is the current chairman of the OSCE, of which the Minsk Group that mediates a peaceful settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is part.

After meetings and discussions with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on the situation in the conflict settlement, Didier Burkhalter said: "My approach as the OSCE chairman is very clear. We believe that we must move towards peace step by step. And this means that we advocate two main issues. First, it is the intensification of the dialogue. The dialogue has already taken place, but there is a need for a new meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. It was proposed to hold the meeting in Paris, and we also supported this idea. We are in favour of holding this meeting in the near future. This meeting should be the starting point of a new phase of negotiations. On the other hand, it can be a process of structured negotiations that will lead to a peace agreement. And this negotiation process should be based on the Madrid principles."

As is evident from this statement, the OSCE, through its current chairman, insists on continuing the dialogue at the level of the presidents of the conflicting parties and confirms the well-known Madrid principles that the Armenians avoided as the basis for the settlement. The second most important question, to which President Didier Burkhalter drew attention, is the strengthening of the ceasefire.

In Yerevan, Didier Burkhalter met with President Serzh Sargsyan and noted the importance of the Minsk Group format. He stressed that the status quo does not promise prospects, and we must try to move towards peace step by step. Speaking about the possible contribution of Switzerland to the settlement, Didier Burkhalter said: "We can provide mediation assistance, expert participation, political and financial assistance. We can do it during the presidency of Switzerland, as well as after that, if need be." He added that assistance is also possible in the form of measures aimed at improving the atmosphere of trust - direct contacts between people and addressing environmental issues. The aim of the OSCE chairman-in-office to intensify the stalled negotiations for the peaceful settlement of the conflict was also implicitly shown by the fact that the "president" of the so-called "NKR", Bako Sahakyan, visited Yerevan for a meeting with him as Yerevan often conceals its unwillingness to withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani territories by the obstinacy of the Karabakh Armenians.

In addition to the OSCE chairman-in-office, the mediator countries are also becoming more active: France, USA and Russia. On 31 May French ambassador to Azerbaijan Pascal Monnier told reporters that during his recent visit to the South Caucasus French President Francois Hollande put forward specific proposals on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. The diplomat said that France is ready to receive the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia jointly with the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs for negotiations. "We are committed to the goal of achieving peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and we want to create conditions for the two countries to live at peace, not at war in the future," Monnier said.

In Yerevan, US Ambassador to Armenia John Heffern spoke on the same subject. In an interview with Voice of America, he said that "... the process of settling the problem is really in a stalemate." The US co-chair of the Minsk Group, James Warlick, has received an instruction from the State Department to spare no effort to bring together the parties to the conflict, the US ambassador said. "The negotiation process has seen very little progress, but Warlick has a clear commitment to create conditions for deepening the negotiations between the parties," he added.

Russia is trying to make the Armenians listen to reason somewhat differently. To make Yerevan restrain its territorial ambitions, Moscow has carried out extensive supplies of advanced weapons to Azerbaijan, including several dozens of military helicopters and 100 modern T-90S tanks. There is an option for 100 more tanks, i.e. the Russian manufacturer has agreed to supply them at a specified price if there is a relevant order from Baku. The arrival of 18 Russian flamethrower missiles TOS-1A Solntsepek is also expected. Armenians note that all these are offensive weapons systems, but because of their dependent position they are not even able to express their outrage publicly. For example, Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan said: "As defence minister, of course, I cannot look at this with kind eyes. But I have no right to talk about it." Russian Ambassador Ivan Volynkin casually ignored Armenian journalists who attacked him with their questions about this, saying "... this issue is not political, but commercial, and there is no need to concentrate on it".

Another public humiliation for Armenia was the founding meeting in Astana, where the presidents of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia signed a document on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Not only was Serzh Sargsyan not allowed to become one of its founders, in addition, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, citing a letter from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, warned that Armenia can join the EEU only on the same basis as accession to the WTO, i.e. within its internationally recognized borders. This undermined the plans of Serzh Sargsyan and his team to drag Nagornyy Karabakh into the EEU together with Armenia "by default".

Faced with sharp criticism from opponents and the media on his return to Yerevan, Serzh Sargsyan did not find anything better than to make a good face over a bad game. He said that "what Nazarbayev said in Astana was unpleasant, but it cannot do us any harm". Moreover, according to the Armenian president, Yerevan had no plans to seek accession to the EEU together with Nagornyy Karabakh, because this allegedly "independent state" has not submitted such an appeal. His explanations did not convince anyone. Foreign and local analysts are worried and draw attention to the continuing dangerous weakening of the international position of Armenia as Azerbaijan is getting stronger.

The diplomatic activity of Moscow in the region is demonstrated by the visit to Baku by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov scheduled for June and then by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitriy Rogozin, who is responsible for the military-industrial complex in the Russian government. They were preceded by a visit by Russian Economy Minister Aleksey Ulyukayev, who noted the growing development of Russian-Azerbaijani economic relations. It should be noted that at the Economic Forum in St Petersburg, an agreement was signed between the state oil companies Rosneft and SOCAR on partnership in the implementation of projects in Russia, Azerbaijan and third countries. Obviously, material interests in relations between Moscow and Baku are incomparable in scale with Armenian-Russian relations.

On 1 June, a weekend, Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandyan and a large group of ambassadors and employees of his apparatus went to Nagornyy Karabakh. Officially, the event was presented as a means of familiarizing Armenian diplomats with the Karabakh problem through direct observation and communication. However, it is possible that the aim was also to explain some of the realities of the modern world to the Karabakh Armenians, who are known for their stubbornness. After all, no one shares the Armenian version of the situation and its legal parameters. Faced with the resolute refusal of Azerbaijan to accept the secession of Nagornyy Karabakh, the Armenians decided to raise the bar of their own territorial claims, which now include almost all the occupied Azerbaijani districts previously treated as a "security buffer zone" in order to improve their negotiating position. The Armenians failed to convince anyone to treat with understanding such claims that are inconsistent with international law (it is enough to appeal to the well-known UN Security Council resolutions), becoming prisoners of their own propaganda. The faster they rid themselves of the illusion of "winners" in the war with Azerbaijan and realize the economic, demographic, foreign policy and military realities that are changing against them, the greater the chance for progress in the renewed negotiations.