UNION IN SPITE OF DISAGREEMENTS

Russian-Turkish relations, like in the early 20th century, gained a newly meaning amid the events unfolding in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. Both then and now, there are some forces that have geopolitical interests in these regions and are trying to gain serious dividends, skilfully playing on some of the contradictions in Russian-Turkish relations. It should be noted that Turkey and Russia, which are among the key players in the above regions, often have diametrically opposed geopolitical interests. But there are many points of contact associated with the common interests of these countries, especially given the rapidly changing situation in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. Therefore, despite some inconsistencies in approaches to some issues, Moscow and Ankara demonstrate commitment to deepening and strengthening bilateral good-neighbourly and mutually beneficial relations. In this context, of particular relevance is Russian President Putin's official visit to Turkey at the beginning of this month.

The visit, which was planned for 14-15 October, was postponed five days before the appointed time. Officially, the postponement of the visit was explained by the busy schedule of the Russian president and the lack of an agenda for the third meeting of the high-level Cooperation Council, whose work is carried out under the chairmanship of the Russian president and the Turkish prime minister. But most experts believe that the visit was postponed due to the deteriorating situation on the Syrian-Turkish border, which almost led to an open military confrontation between Syria and Turkey. In this tense situation, Moscow mostly likely did not want to mar the positive atmosphere that developed in Russian-Turkish relations during the Turkish prime minister's latest visit to Moscow in July of this year. Then the two countries' leaders mostly focused on the strategic nature of relations, the growth in the trade turnover to $ 35 billion and increasing it to $ 100 billion in the short-term. However, to all appearances, the Syrian issue has taken a strong position among the components of Russian-Turkish relations, and the parties have to bear this heavy cross to the very end - until the problem finds its logical solution, especially as the Syrian issue causes an even greater outcry ahead of Vladimir Putin's official visit to Turkey, reflecting directly on the problems of ensuring the security of Turkey and Russia.

In late November, Ankara, referring to threats and risks to national security related to the ongoing crisis in Syria, sent a formal request to NATO to deploy Patriot aerospace defence complexes on the Turkish-Syrian border, to which Brussels responded positively. This issue was a subject of serious discussion during Putin's visit to Ankara. Noting at the press conference in Istanbul that Russia shares Turkey's concerns about the events at the border, Putin urged Ankara, nevertheless, to show restraint. According to him, the creation of some additional possibilities on the border does not relax the situation, but rather exacerbates it, and the Patriot missiles are not the best system in the world. Meanwhile, it has become known that these facilities will be deployed in three regions of Turkey - Adana, Malatya and Diyarbakir.

Ankara says that this measure is defensive in nature and is not intended for offensive purposes. They cannot be linked to the organization of a no-fly zone over Syria. But such assurances are unlikely to be sufficient for Moscow to quietly watch the events taking place. To a certain extent, Moscow's fears about the Patriot missiles are also related to the fact that the Kremlin regards their deployment on Turkish territory as an integral part of the American missile defence system in Europe. The Syrian situation itself and ways to solve this problem were a serious subject of discussion between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At a joint press conference in Istanbul, Erdogan said that the first priority in this regard is to stop the bloodshed in Syria, and the foreign ministers of Turkey and Russia are authorized to act in this area. The Russian president, in turn, said that while Moscow and Ankara equally assess the situation in Syria, they disagree on the methods of solving the problem. Touching on Assad, Putin tried to distance himself from the Syrian ruling regime: "We are not lawyers of the current Syrian leadership, we are concerned about other things: what will happen in the future? We do not want to repeat the mistakes that were made in the recent past." But, apparently, the leaders of the two countries were set to maintain the balance in their relations. Moreover, it is obvious that today Ankara and Moscow are interested in the success of numerous investment and energy projects.

Some Russian experts assess the level of Russian-Turkish economic and financial ties along with Russian-German ones. Therefore, they argue, the political differences on the Syrian front could not overshadow the results of Putin's visit to Turkey. Despite the serious geopolitical and economic interests of Russia in Syria, according to Turkish analysts, relations with Ankara are more important to Moscow than those with Damascus. Not least because Turkey is a major consumer of Russian gas, and Russia is the biggest market for Turkish construction companies.

During Putin's visit to Turkey, the third meeting of the high-level Russian-Turkish Cooperation Council was held. As a result of the meeting, 11 documents were signed, including a medium-term programme of cooperation between the two countries for 2012-2015, a number of agreements on the energy sector, monetary and cultural fields, trade-economic and scientific-technical cooperation. It is notable that Ankara's final approval was received for the construction of the Russian gas pipeline South Stream with a design capacity of 63 billion cubic metres of "blue fuel" a year through the territorial waters of Turkey in the Black Sea. That is to say Turkey approved the construction and operation of the South Stream gas pipeline in its exclusive economic zone. Moscow decided not to postpone the start of this long-awaited moment. A couple of days after Vladimir Putin's visit, the first joint of the pipeline was welded near Anapa in Krasnodar Territory. Even the statement Turkish Energy Minister Yildiz made on the sidelines of this ceremony that Turkey currently has no plans to participate in the South Stream because it is involved in the Nabucco West and TANAP pipeline projects, where it is a shareholder, does not belittle the importance of this event for Moscow.

It is possible that Turkey's benevolence towards the South Stream is dictated by its long-term plans. It is possible that when necessary, Ankara will ask Moscow to show reciprocity in the realization of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, in which Turkey, its strategic ally the US and the European Union are so interested.

Another major achievement in Russian-Turkish relations during Putin's visit to Turkey was the confirmation of Moscow's intention to invest about $ 20 billion in the construction of the Akkuyu NPP in Turkey. According to the plan, the first unit of the NPP will be ready by the end of 2019. In general, the construction should be completed by 2022. Moscow undertakes to finance the construction of the nuclear power plants and train the personnel.

Another successful joint project was the construction of a plant with a capacity of 2.3 million tonnes of rolled sheet in the Turkish city of Iskenderun by the Magnitogorsk copper plant. In addition, the GAZ car plant began the mass production of Gazels literally on the eve of Putin's visit to Turkey.

It is noteworthy that the Russian president stressed in a statement to the press that the Russian delegation is visiting not just partners and neighbours, but a friendly country. To some extent, Putin's complementary rhetoric can be explained by the fact that sympathy for Russia has been growing steadily in Turkish society in recent years. According to Milliyet newspaper, five years ago, 70 per cent of Turkey's population favoured the US. Now, according to opinion polls, the same number of people prefer Russia. The statement uttered by the Russian president's press secretary D. Peskov that Moscow is happy to accept Ankara's possible desire to join the Customs Union (CU) formed by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union suggests that Russian-Turkish relations are experiencing a period of recovery.

Ankara has yet to comment on these words of the press secretary of the Russian president. But most likely, this statement is a kind of veiled message to some post-Soviet countries, especially Armenia. It is possible that by warning Yerevan that Turkey may support the Customs Union, Russia is making an attempt to persuade Armenia to accept its conditions in the project. Ankara, in turn, is unlikely to respond positively to such ideas as this will mean that Turkey is abandoning its European foreign policy vector. And this is while US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that the United States will try to prevent integration processes in the post-Soviet area, which they regard as Russia's attempt to create a new version of the Soviet Union. It is no accident that at the international Caspian forum held on 6 December in Istanbul, the former US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates stressed the increasing strategic importance of Turkey as an ally of the West: "Turkey has a unique geographical location, whose role in the global system is growing every day. It is no accident that my first speech in Washington after becoming secretary of defence was devoted to relations with Turkey." All of the above shows again that all the key players who have serious geopolitical interests in the Middle East and the South Caucasus need allied relations with Turkey. In this plane, offers of good neighbourliness, partnership and friendship will be made. But the main choice belongs to Ankara.