THE "PILLAR OF CLOUD" DISPERSES

Yet another war has ended in the Middle East - in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict region. Although there is no guarantee that it will not be followed by a new one soon, there is reason to hope that the cease-fire, perhaps, will become the starting point for the establishment of a long-awaited peace in the Holy Land.

Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip lasted 8 days. The reason for the conflict was a missile attack by the Palestinian side, which, in turn, explained its actions by the killing of the leader of the Hamas military wing, Ahmad Jabari.

This was followed by events, which, unfortunately, have already become a tradition over the many decades of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Palestinians fired at Israeli territory, and the Air Force and artillery of the Jewish state attacked Gaza, destroying the positions of Palestinian government bodies, which have been represented by radical Hamas for six years. As a result of Operation Pillar of Cloud carried out by the Israeli army, more than 160 Palestinians were killed. Four Israelis fell victim to rocket attacks from the Palestinian side.

On 21 November, the warring parties agreed to a cease-fire. Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who visited the region in order to facilitate the talks, played an important role in the peace process. Under the terms of the truce, Israel and Hamas pledged to cease hostilities against each other. In particular, Israel must cease all hostilities from sea, land and air, and the Palestinians must stop launching missiles into Israeli territory.

The Palestinian side perceived the conclusion of the ceasefire with Israel as a victory. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal said that "the Israeli adventure in the Gaza Strip failed". 22 November was declared National Day of Victory in Gaza.

The Palestinians' exultation has a certain reason, not least because Israel, which has a powerful army in the region, failed to defeat Hamas. For the first time in the history of the conflict, the latter's missiles reached Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. If before the 40-km zone adjacent to the border of the Gaza Strip was considered dangerous for Israel, now the fire zone stretches for 75 km. All in all, more than 1,500 rockets were fired at Israel during the eight-day war. This indicates that in the four years since the Israeli military operation Cast Lead, which aimed to destroy the infrastructure of Palestinian radical groups, the latter have only increased their military potential and proven that they are able to resist a superior regular army.

But does all this allow us to talk about Palestinian victory? Only relatively, because during Operation Pillar of Cloud, the Israeli Air Force bombed 1,500 Palestinian facilities - underground tunnels, rocket arsenals, headquarters and homes of militants, not to mention significant civilian casualties. There is a big question mark hanging over the further path of the Palestinian Authority, which failed to overcome the national split. Israeli military actions only strengthen the position of the radicals but also weaken the power of the head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmud Abbas, who aims for a political settlement of the conflict. On the other hand, given the two devastating wars over the years of Hamas rule, it is high time for Gaza residents to think about their future.

Even more ambiguous is the outcome of the war for Israel. The leadership of this country has officially stated that the military campaign achieved all its goals, the most important of which is a significant reduction of missile arsenals and weakening of Hamas militias. However, the Israeli authorities and public find it difficult to hide their disappointment. They are sure that another war, which will perhaps be more violent, is unavoidable, and Hamas will take advantage of the truce as a reprieve to mobilize its resources anew. In an effort to justify support for the decision to cease fire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "I know that some of our citizens expect a more massive military operation, and perhaps, we will have a need for it."

An indicator of certain confusion in the Israeli leadership was the statement of Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak about his intention to resign and quit politics after the Knesset elections scheduled for 22 January 2013. As the reason for this step, we can cite the fact that according to recent opinion polls, the Ha'atzmaut party led by Barak will not be able to enter the parliament. However, the fact that Barak talked about quitting politics immediately after Operation Pillar of Cloud, whose results are interpreted by many in Israel almost as a defeat, probably says something.

In general, the pre-election situation in Israel played a major role in the Jewish state launching another anti-Palestinian campaign. Of course, while launching it, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his party Likud hoped for a much more impressive blow to Palestinian radicals and, therefore, planned to improve their already good electoral position. Similarly, four years ago, the then ruling party Kadima, launching Operation Cast Lead, also sought to raise its political rating. However, the popularity of Kadima was much lower than that of Netanyahu's party now. And while explaining the warlike motivation of the Israeli government, the geopolitical aspect comes to the fore here.

Before the presidential elections in the US, Israel tried in every way to prompt the Obama administration to launch a military strike on Iran, which Tel Aviv sees as the greatest threat to the Jewish state. However, the president of the United States kept to his position, confirming that, at least at this stage, he supports a peaceful solution to the problem of the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. After Obama's re-election as American leader, the Netanyahu government, which was preparing for a military solution to the Iran crisis, decided to use the bellicose energy it had accumulated. The choice of Hamas as its target was, on the one hand, due to the fact that a new clash with the Gaza authorities had never lost its relevance for Israel and on the other, Tel Aviv let it be known, including to Tehran, that it is always ready deal a blow to any enemy.

However, in this regard, we should pay attention to another very important factor: Iran, in one way or another, directly contributed to the current escalation of the confrontation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone. The fact is that Operation Pillar of Cloud was preceded by an exchange of strikes between the Israeli army and the most radical Palestinian group Islamic Jihad. If Hamas sympathies are almost evenly divided between Iran, the new Arab regimes in the Middle East (especially Egypt), Qatar, which has become a major financial and political player in the Arab world, as well as partly Turkey, Islamic Jihad is solely focused on Iran. Therefore, Tehran was interested in demonstrating the increased power of Palestinian movements (not least due to the efforts of the Islamic Republic itself) in order for Israel to imagine all the possible consequences of the attack it is preparing on Iran. And this story clearly features another pro-Iranian character - Lebanon's Hezbollah, which is much stronger and is able to fire at the entire northern half of Israel much longer than Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Tel Aviv sees the way out of this hostile environment not only in its own strengthening and permanent military pressure on Lebanon and Palestine, but also in finding a perfect protective shield with the help of the United States.

Israel is indebted to the United States for the fact that most of the missiles launched from the Gaza Strip were shot down during Operation Pillar of Cloud. A decisive role in this was played by the Israeli missile defence system Iron Dome, the operation of which is financed by Washington. US President Barack Obama, expressing satisfaction that Netanyahu agreed to accept a truce with the Palestinians, promised to find a way to allocate additional funding to Israel to improve the Iron Dome. And State Secretary Clinton made it clear that Washington is steadfast in its commitment to Israel's security. However, for the same reason, the US is aware that their "commitment" alone is not enough for the peaceful life of Israelis, which can be guaranteed only and only by good neighbourliness with the Palestinian people. For this reason, Clinton's words are not accidental: "In the coming days, the US will work with partners in Israel and other countries of the region to achieve a result that would guarantee the security of the Israeli people, improve the living conditions in Gaza and be a step towards a comprehensive peace in the Middle East."

The continuation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is of no benefit to the US also for the reason that it constantly has to cover the Jewish state in international organizations, primarily the UN, contrary to the opinion of the majority of the international community. That, of course, does not give the Americans dividends in the context of ideas of dialogue between civilizations and warming in US relations with the Muslim world espoused by Barack Obama. And by contrast, criticism of Israel is of benefit to other states - not just US allies like, say, Turkey, but also its geopolitical rivals in the Middle East, in particular Russia.

As for the conflicting parties themselves, to attain the comprehensive peace mentioned by the US secretary of state, they must realize that new wars are inevitable in the absence of a Middle East settlement. The cause of peace is strongly opposed by the present political and legal status quo in which Israel continues to occupy part of the internationally recognized Palestinian territory, while the Palestinians, at least their radical part, ignore the very right of Israel to exist.

It is encouraging that the societies of the two conflicting sides are becoming increasingly aware that this situation is unacceptable for a long-term solution to the problem. Perhaps, the words of the authoritative Palestinian cleric and imam from Gaza, Suleyman al-Daya, who issued a fatwa according to which every Palestinian has to consider that observing the "cease-fire signed with the help of our Egyptian brothers is the duty of each of us and its violation will be considered a sin", are a glimmer of hope for peace.