SYRIA AFTER ASSAD

The bloodshed in Syria continues, and a peaceful way out of the situation in the country is more and more a distant dream. Although calls for dialogue are made almost constantly, in reality none of the parties is ready to back down.

The "political survival" of the Assad regime seems increasingly illusory. Media regularly report about top generals of Assad fleeing to Turkey.

Meanwhile, the regime continues to resist fiercely, and the likelihood of the internal Syrian confrontation escalating into a serious regional conflict remains high. The most explosive situation, analysts said, is at the Turkish-Syrian border - with "accidental" strikes on Turkish territory by Syrian troops (and such attacks do not always go without victims) and the Assad regime's open support for terrorists from the Kurdistan Workers' Party. It is known that on 4 October, the Turkish parliament gave the government a one-year mandate for cross-border military operations. Ankara warns that this is not a declaration of war, but experts have no doubt: this cannot last forever, especially if Assad's behaviour does not change. And such a scenario, let's face it, does not indicate anything.

Against this background, many countries, not without reason, fear for regional stability and are trying to influence the course of events - and they are concerned about the pride of the Assad regime least of all. Things have reached a point where British Prime Minister David Cameron openly said in an interview with the Arabic satellite channel Al-Arabiya that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad can get international security guarantees if he immediately resigns from his post. "Anything to make this man leave Syria and to ensure a prosperous period of transition in the country," Cameron said in Abu Dhabi.

"Obviously, I am not offering him a plan to escape to the UK, but if he wants to leave, he can leave - this can be organized," Cameron said.

At the same time, the world expert community and current politicians are more concerned with another question - what will the political landscape in Syria be like after the dismantling of the Assad regime. And here we should not underestimate the number of potential "time bombs", especially against the background of the gloomy results of the "Arab Spring" in Tunisia and Egypt.

"Unsweetened" experience

As the name of Tahrir Square flashed on the pages of the world's leading media, there was little doubt in Europe and the US that the unrest in Tunisia and Cairo was a "democratic breakthrough" and that citizens were demanding political reforms, the overthrow of local autocratic regimes, etc. Leading experts talked about human rights, invented terms like "Facebook revolution", juggled ratings of media freedom and the Forbes list that mentioned Mubarak among billionaires...

But in practice, what began as a "democratic impulse" led to a kind of remake of the Iranian scenario. If at the stage of mass rallies the incumbent government was opposed by a very broad opposition front, a year later the "commanding heights" fell into the hands of the Islamists. Perhaps, they were not the most popular ones, but there is no doubt that they were the most organized and aggressive ones.

In Syria, such a scenario cannot be excluded either. Moreover, amid the growing instability in the same Libya, experts fear another thing - the country being drawn into a war among victorious opposition groups. In any case, in an interview with Al-Hayat newspaper, the Special Representative of the UN and the League of Arab States (LAS) Lakhdar Brahimi sounded the alarm that Syria risks becoming a new Somalia. That is to say a country where there is no government is always gripped in a civil war between warlords and militias linked to al-Qaeda. "The situation in Syria is very dangerous," Brahimi said. "I think that if the crisis is not resolved, there is a danger of Somalization."

"This will mean the collapse of the state and strengthening of warlords and armed groups," the UN and Arab League envoy believes. Russian media recall: central state power in Somalia has been virtually absent since 1991, when the regime of dictator Siad Barre was deposed. The government controls only the capital, while the regions are controlled by their own administrations, armed clashes between factions have been going on for two decades, and maritime piracy is flourishing off the coast of Somalia.

In this situation, there are natural attempts by Western countries to intensify work with the Syrian opposition. And this is proved by periodic meetings with them in Turkey, Jordan and the Qatari capital Doha. In the first week of November, there were plenty of media "leaks" testifying to the active work of the West and the Syrian opposition.

Moreover, many experts, including Russian ones, clearly indicate that Washington seems disillusioned with the Syrian National Council (SNC) based in Turkey, as it is "unable to integrate the internal and external opposition against the government of Bashar al-Assad". "We have made it clear that the SNC cannot be considered a clear leader of the opposition," media quoted US State Secretary Hillary Clinton as saying.

Now, the meeting in Doha launched a new organization - the Syrian national initiative. Its main tasks will be "the creation of a coalition to deal with the Assad government, cooperation with the international community and coordination of efforts on the use of aid from other countries," according to AFP. From the beginning, among the candidates for the role of its leader was the former deputy of the Syrian parliament, 66-year-old dissident Riad Seif, the former prime minister of Syria, Riad Hijab, who fled in August, one of the founders and leaders of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Ali Sadraddin al-Bayanuni and Syrian philosopher and critic of the religious ideology Sadiq Jalal al-Azm.

But, experts admit, it is one thing to create a coalition in a meeting room and another thing to be successful "on the battlefield", as it is necessary to take the initiative from the militants of the "Free Syrian Army", among whom Islamists have a great influence.

Here you need to make a clarification. While the Syrian revolution existed in the form of peaceful demonstrations, it was dominated by "general democratic" slogans. But the transition to armed struggle changed the situation dramatically: in contrast to the sophisticated European human rights campaigners, protectors of Islamists from the international jihadist network immediately proceeded to "help" with guns and sent their own fighters with real military experience to Syria.

To arm or not to arm?

In this case, a change in the strategy of Western countries is widely anticipated. Thus, according to Russian Vesti, the UK authorities indicated that they intend to toughen their approach to the crisis. The Cabinet is considering supplying weapons to the Syrian opposition, said the Office of British Prime Minister David Cameron at the end of his visit to the Middle East. Arms supplies can be accompanied with the creation of zones closed to government aircraft in Syria.

"The UK can arm the Syrian rebels, making new efforts to remove President Bashar al-Assad and end the bloodshed, after David Cameron instructed officials to explore all options," ITAR-TASS quotes the statement as saying. In addition, during his visit to the Middle East, Cameron said that Britain currently has no plans to supply weapons to the Syrian opposition, as it is prohibited by an EU embargo. However, it expires on 1 December, and according to media reports, the British government is considering changes in the terms of the embargo.

According to one of the opposition leaders Riad Seif, France also promised weapons to the Syrian opposition if they are able to close ranks. Quoting Al-Jazeera, The Guardian reports that Seif said this at the conference of the Syrian National Council in Doha. According to him, French President Francois Hollande promised him weapons if the Syrian opposition unites.

Not everyone believed this "leak". Especially as earlier, EU chief diplomat Catherine Ashton called on all the countries of the international community not to supply weapons to Syria where clashes between the government forces and insurgents are continuing. "The EU warns about the increasing militarization of the conflict. We urge all countries to refrain from supplying arms to Syria and to follow the EU in order to stop the supplies that incite the clashes," she said. Against the background of the "London" leaks, it can be assumed that the position of the West is changing, and they are ready for a much harder scenario in Syria - before the internal conflict escalates into a regional war.

It is also significant that Russia has started to search for contacts within the Syrian opposition, though previously, it refused to deal with anyone other than Assad. According to Germany's Tageszeitung, in Jordan the Russian foreign minister met with Riad Hijab - former prime minister of Syria who has defected to the opposition. According to Lavrov, the newspaper said, he wanted to get first-hand information as to how the opposition sees the way out of the civil war. In addition, Lavrov said that the meeting was necessary to plan how to deal with the opposition and save the Syrian people. Although Lavrov stressed that Russia continues to support the government of Bashar al-Assad, because otherwise the country will slide into chaos, it is obvious that this meeting is not a good sign for Damascus.

Many experts warn that such close international attention to the Syrian opposition poses a serious threat. A situation where each of the potential "external players" on the Syrian front will have his own protege in opposition circles will considerably complicate the consolidation of the opposition and hence, the "controlled" transition of power. In this case, Syria will really slide into chaos. But the geopolitical stakes in this game do not seem to be too high.