WORST-CASE SCENARIO

-Extremist group the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has seized nearly a third of Iraq's territory in only a few days. What is this group, which the 200,000-strong Iraqi army in the provinces of Nineveh and Salah ad Din literally ran away from?

- There is not a terrorist group in the world capable of carrying out a rapid strike of this sort deep into the center of a country without support on a government level. Of course, ISIL has considerable outside support. On the other hand, ISIL is not something new; it has existed since 2003 and has a certain amount of military experience. The main reason for this terrorist's organization's success is the near total absence of a government security system in Iraq. After 2012 anti-government demonstrations began in Sunni-populated areas - Mosul, Anbar, the Saladin Governorate. The government was unable to suppress the unrest in these regions. Things were getting more and more tense with each passing day, which eventually led to an armed uprising. I think that the government of Iraq under Nouri Al-Maliki will try to mobilize all its forces to put down the ISIL uprising. But even if the central government of Iraq regains control of the provinces that have been seized, ISIL and other terrorist organizations will continue their activity. 

- Is there a danger of a large religious war if Salafis move on Shiite holy cities in Iraq? In that case, Iran on the one side and Sunni Arab countries on the other will get involved in the conflict...  

- There is that risk. Iran has already announced that it will intervene in the internal Iraqi conflict if ISIL moves against Shiite holy cities. In that case the worst-case scenario will unfold - an open religious conflict that will sweep the entire region. The conflict will draw in not only Iran, Iraq, and Syria, but also Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and other countries in the Middle East. 

- Detachments of ISIL militants have seen action in Syria. Is there the possibility of a Syria-like scenario in Iraq, by which I mean a lengthy civil war?

- Things are moving towards that. Other armed groups - both Sunni and Shia - are gradually being drawn onto the side of either the government or ISIL. That's the typical picture of the beginning of the Syrian conflict. 

- And what is Turkey's position? It is well-known that Turkey's sympathies lie with the Syrian opposition, of which the ISIL is a part. There are photographs of ISIL militants in Turkish military uniforms on social networking sites. 

- The conflict in Iraq is directly contrary to Turkey's interests. It is completely possible that some ISIL militants wear Turkish Army uniforms. It is important to realize that one can purchase Turkish Army uniforms and the military uniforms of other countries outside of Turkey. This in no way indicates any sort of Turkish support for ISIL. Ankara unambiguously considers ISIL a terrorist organization, and has added the group to its list of terrorists. Turkey has never supported terrorists. ISIL threatens Turkey itself. Remember that diplomats at the Turkish consulate in Mosul were taken hostage. 

Saudi Arabia and Qatar are often named as sponsors of ISIL. However, right now there is no convincing evidence that ISIL is financed, armed, or directed from Riyadh and Doha. 

- With all this going on, what is happening to Iraq's Azeris - the Turkmens?

- The Iraqi Turkmens are in the toughest situation. The Iraqi government does not provide them with security, and they do not have any weapons themselves. All this, and combat is taking place in the regions inhabited by Turkmens. Two hundred thousand Turkmens have already been forced to leave their hometowns, abandoning their homes and farms. We are witnessing the mass killing of Turkmens. International organizations are doing nothing to protect them. Turkey unilaterally sent an aircraft to Mosul with humanitarian aid for Turkmens. Turkey's help alone is not enough, however.  The threat of genocide hangs over the Turkmens. 

- In what case would Turkey take upon itself the mission of protecting Turkmens in Iraq?

- So far the efforts of Turkey to protect the Turkmens have been limited to humanitarian aid. But if, as in 1991, tens of thousands of refugees cross over into Turkish territory and Iraq breaks up into warring regions, a Turkish military intervention to protect the Turkmens is entirely possible. 

- Many Western politicians talk about the de facto division of Iraq into three independent territories: Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish…

- Everything depends on the competency of the Al-Maliki government - on how quickly they can regain control of the country and restore the army's military capabilities. If that does not happen in the immediate future, then Iraq will be divided up into three independent ethno-religious territories. 

Maliki has no other choice. The United States will not send its army back into Iraq.