INTERESTS NOT TO THE DETRIMENT OF PRINCIPLES

Contacts between Azerbaijan and Russia, which acquired special intensity in recent months, continued last week. First, Baku was visited by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who was followed by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitriy Rogozin. And immediately after these visits, Qabala hosted a huge event - the fifth Russian-Azerbaijani Inter-Regional Cooperation Forum, which was attended by more than 400 people, representatives of the two countries' authorities and business communities, governors and heads of regional executive authorities.

Many experts link the intensification of relations between the two countries at various levels, including the visits by Lavrov and Rogozin, to Moscow's desire to demonstrate that Azerbaijan continues to occupy an important place in the geopolitical calculations of Russian strategists regarding this region. What is more, the actions of the European Union aimed at strengthening its influence in the former Soviet Union, including in the South Caucasus, play an important role among the reasons for Russia's increased interest in Azerbaijan. Moscow pays much attention to this region, which has traditionally been a vital area of Russian interests. And a special place in these calculations is given to Azerbaijan as the most powerful state in the region, which is conducting an independent foreign policy. The surrender of positions to Europeans in a country which also can provide Russia with strategic access to Iran and the Middle East is fraught with serious losses. In this sense, the visits to Azerbaijan by the foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Russia almost immediately after it was visited by one of the leaders of the EU - European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso - are also somewhat symbolic. For the Russian establishment, it is important to know Baku's vision of its future role in the integration processes in the world and, in general, its relations with the polar centres of power.

It is likely that during the meetings in Azerbaijan, the senior Russian guests once again heard that the country does not intend to become an associate member of the EU. It must be remembered that during his recent visit to Baku, Jose Manuel Barroso said that the invitation was still in force. It is also possible that Lavrov and Rogozin expressed their desire to see Azerbaijan in the Russian-sponsored integration project, which is the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

In any case, Russia is serious about intensifying relations with Azerbaijan in all spheres, including in such a strategic area as the military-industrial complex. This is proved by statements made during the meeting of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitriy Rogozin. "We are pleased with the level of our relations, which are developing dynamically and effectively, and cover virtually all areas of cooperation. This is political interaction and we see good results in the economic sphere, in the humanitarian field and, of course, in the sphere of military-technical cooperation. It is very constructive cooperation, which is growing, the volume of cooperation is also growing, and the prospects are good. For this reason, I think that in the coming years we will make very serious progress in this direction," the president said. In turn, Dmitriy Rogozin promised that as the newly appointed co-chairman of the bilateral intergovernmental commission, he will do everything possible to ensure that these volumes "continue to grow further".

As for the EAEU, Moscow, of course, would be happy to see Azerbaijan in the EAEU, but has no intention of forcing the issue. This topic was not discussed in the talks with the country's leadership, Lavrov said at a briefing in Baku. However, an important message for Baku was Lavrov's statement that Armenia will enter the Eurasian Union strictly within the UN-recognized borders, i.e. without Nagornyy Karabakh and other occupied Azerbaijani lands.

A kind of response to this message was Baku's statement voiced by Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov. "The main interest of Russia should consist in the perception of Azerbaijan as a developed, stable and reliable strategic neighbour. Russia can achieve a lot by assisting Azerbaijan in resolving the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict," the deputy minister said, adding that the Karabakh issue was one of the topics discussed by Lavrov in Baku.

Azimov did not clarify how much Russia can get in return for resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. But some experts concluded from these words that Baku can supposedly give the nod to membership in the EAEU if Moscow exerts an effective influence on Yerevan, which is under its control, to withdraw from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan. They justify their opinion by the fact that the resolution of the Karabakh conflict has been and remains the number one task of the Azerbaijani leadership and Baku has already said that in the future it will build its relations with individual countries and organizations, depending on their position on the Karabakh problem.

But can Azerbaijan adjust its foreign policy in exchange for a solution to the territorial problem? Even if the question is put this way, Azerbaijan certainly requires assurances that its support of various integration initiatives will happen not before but after or at least in parallel with the gradual liberation of the Armenian-occupied lands. Baku can accept only such an interpretation of the Karabakh problem. As one of the characters of the unforgettable novel of Ilf and Petrov "The Twelve Chairs" said, "money in the morning, chairs in the evening".

Meanwhile, the views of the expert community have split in the assessment of such a perspective. The political scientist and former Azerbaijani state adviser on foreign policy, Vafa Quluzada, thinks that speaking in the language of Ippolit Matveyevich Vorobyaninov from the same "Twelve Chairs" that bargaining is not appropriate here, Baku should not abandon European integration in favour of Russia. "If the Eurasian Union represents purely the economic interests of Russia and Azerbaijan, we can go there. But if the Customs Union is being established in order to confront the European Union and NATO, we have nothing to do there," Quluzada says.

Milli Maclis deputy Qudrat Hasanquliyev holds a different view. According to him, it is pointless to expect Europe to help to resolve the Nagornyy Karabakh problem. Azerbaijan, he thinks, should either strive to NATO or to be with Russia. "With Russia, in order to resolve the Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan can even join the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union - for the sake of Karabakh, I think it's possible," the deputy said.

By and large, Europe, which is experiencing an economic and political crisis, demonstrates indifference to the Karabakh problem. Unlike Russia, it has no real leverage in resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. At least, given Moscow's ability to influence Yerevan, it is able to persuade the occupier country to be constructive.

However, most analysts recall that Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that it is not going to join any union. The country's strong economic and military potential insures it from a secondary role in any project. But Baku pursues an independent foreign policy aimed at equal participation in the system of international relations that respects the interests of partners, but focuses primarily on Azerbaijan's own interests, while independence and territorial integrity cannot be a subject of bargaining.

AT FIRST HAND

"Russia can achieve a lot by helping Azerbaijan to resolve the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict." 

Araz Azimov, Deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan