THE LATEST WARNING TO DAMASCUS

Syria continues to burn in the flames of a civil war. Meanwhile, in the armed conflict between President Bashar Assad's regime and the opposition forces which is now in its second year and which has taken the lives of over 26,000 people, the external factor is being deployed more strongly. And not just in the form of political support and weapons supplies, but in direct military strikes from outside. 

The battle for Aleppo

One significant landmark in the ongoing internal Syrian bloodshed is the battle for Aleppo, the country's economic centre with a population of 2.5 million. Control over it is of immense strategic importance and it is precisely now that the opposing sides - the government troops and the armed opposition - have announced the start of decisive battles for the city.

This was the reason behind the visit to Aleppo by Syrian President Bashar Assad, who was alarmed by a report of the General Staff of the Syrian Army which said that he situation there was "grave, especially after the recent fire at the Souk al-Medina market". In fact, as a result of incessant fighting not only Aleppo's historic quarter, 70% of which was burnt to the ground, but also the new districts have been substantially destroyed in the last few days.

Judging from reports coming in from Aleppo, three quarters of the city are under the control of government troops, but they are finding it increasingly difficult to contain the onslaught of the rebels. In order to change the situation, President Assad ordered about 30,000 men and 2,000 armoured personnel carriers to be transferred from Hama to Aleppo. Besides this, another two government army brigades have been sent from Idlib and Deir ez-Zor to Aleppo. "This means that the army plans to cleanse the remaining districts of Aleppo of the rebels very shortly," the Syrian media writes.

However, the opposition (incidentally, an ill-assorted bunch) are resorting to any means to continue their resistance to Assad's regime. In particular, the radical "Front al-Nusra" group "made its mark" with the explosions in Aleppo. The UN Security Council condemned these terrorist acts, as a result of which dozens of innocent civilians were killed and hundreds injured. The SC statement points out that "terrorism in all its forms and manifestations is one of the most serious threats to international peace and security and any terrorist act is a crime and cannot be justified whatever its motives and where, when and by whom it was committed". Furthermore, the Security Council drew attention to the fact that states are obliged to take measures in the fight against terrorism, based on their own commitments to international law, especially those concerning human rights and the rights of refugees, and the provision of humanitarian aid.

However, criticism of official Damascus was not confined to this obvious hint at the ineffectiveness of the policy of the Syrian authorities in the sphere of "human rights and refugees". Against the background of a deterioration of the inter-Syrian conflict another bloody drama is being played out - the stand-off between Syria and Turkey, to the altar of which more and more sacrifices are being brought.

Akcakale under fire

Turkey was shaken by the news of the death of five people (a mother and three children, and also her sister) after artillery shells were fired from Syrian territory to the district of Akcakale in the south-east of the country. In retaliation at the shelling, Turkish armed forces immediately carried out a series of strikes on a sector of Syrian territory from which the shelling of the Turkish village came. Furthermore, in connection with the exacerbation of the situation on the Syrian border, a number of submarines and warships equipped with runways for naval aviation set off from the main Turkish naval base of Geldjuk near Istanbul for the eastern Mediterranean.

But the most important thing is that the Turkish parliament, having granted Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government a year's mandate to carry out trans-border combat operations, has approved the possibility of a military intervention into Syria. The Turkish prime minister himself even said that Turkey does not want a war with Syria but still did not rule out the possibility of a military conflict with that country. Describing the actions of official Damascus as "state terrorism", Erdogan urged Bashar Assad not to try to "test Turkey's patience".

Official Ankara sees the retaliatory strikes on Syrian territory as a "warning" to Damascus which, meanwhile, has tendered an apology for the shelling of Turkish villages and given an assurance that such a thing will not happen again. Syria's Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi expressed "sincere condolences to the families of the dead and our friends, the Turkish people". 

Despite this, the Syrian strikes on Turkish territory met with sharp condemnation by the world community. The North Atlantic alliance demanded that Syria cease all acts of aggression against Turkey. At an extraordinary session of the NATO Council, which was convened in Brussels at Ankara's initiative, Syria's actions were described as a "blatant violation of international law".

The UN Security Council, an extraordinary session of which was also convened at Turkey's request, demanded that the Syrian authorities show respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of neighbouring states. However, a draft Security Council resolution, in which the shelling of Akcakale was described as a "threat to peace and international security", was blocked by Russia. And this is further confirmation of the disunity of the positions of the leading powers over the Syrian problem.

Between an "Arab Revolution" and an illusory world

Moscow is aware that its position on the Syrian conflict is strengthening differences between Russia and the West, thus being doomed to be the first to be on the side of the minority of the world community. However, Russia cannot allow itself to reject its original approach to the prospect of a triumph of an "Arab Revolution" in Syria, which means she has to reject any anti-Assad resolutions, even in cases where they condemn this or that act of force by the Syrian authorities. True, Moscow is trying to balance the blocking of the pro-Turkish resolution by making active diplomatic efforts to prevent an escalation of the conflict between Ankara and Damascus.

Meanwhile, the US, for its part, is using any opportunity to once again point to the need for the departure of Assad's regime from the stage of history, and at the same time to the destructive position of Russia and a number of other countries who are preventing tough decisions being taken against Syria at the level of international organizations. The White House has expressed its readiness to render Turkey all necessary support following the shelling of Akcakale from Syrian territory. "We are united with our ally Turkey and we are continuing close consultations about future actions. The dangerous incident, which led to the death of five innocent Turkish citizens, is yet further reminder of the need for the removal from power of President Bashar Assad in Syria. All responsible countries must clearly understand that it is high time Assad quit his post, declared a cease-fire and began the political process of the transfer of power in the country," an official representative of the US National Security Council Tommy Victor said.

The approach of the European states, which condemn Assad, but do not wish to be at the forefront of a possible military operation against the Syrian regime, is seen as rather more moderate compared with the position of the United States. As British Foreign Secretary William Hague stated, "one can understand" Turkey's tough response, but further military operations are impermissible. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Ankara and Damascus to demonstrate common sense and avoid an escalation of the conflict.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the situation around Syria has a tendency towards further exacerbation. Of special interest in this connection is the question of how consistent Iran, Syria's ally, will be in observing the treaty with Damascus which commits Tehran to supporting it in the event of an invasion by third forces. Many experts believe that a putative invasion by Turkey of Syria would force Iran to get embroiled in a war. And in such an event the two most urgent problems of the Near East - the crises over Syria and Iran - would convolve into a single whole.

At the same time, there have been reports in the British media which, it would seem, deny such a possibility. According to one newspaper's sources, 275 Iranian servicemen belonging to the Iranian special "Kuds" unit, which secretly helped President Assad in his armed conflict with the opposition, recently left Syria. It may be recalled in this connection that back in mid-September Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Commander of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, admitted that there were members of the aforementioned elite unit in Lebanon and Syria who are carrying out exclusively the functions of advisers.  However, in the West they do not believe in the exclusively peaceful nature of the work of the representatives of the "Kuds". Moreover, according to the reports of western special services, Tehran, since the start of the uprising in Syria, as well as offering active military assistance, has handed over $10bn to the Assad regime. Nevertheless, analysts drew from this information about the recall of Iranian servicemen from Syria the conclusion that the supreme leadership of the Islamic Revolution has lost faith in the Syrian leader's potential for resistance and believes that the days of Bashhar Assad's political power are numbered.

The possibility cannot be ruled out, however, that the recall of the "Kuds" from Syria is linked with the Iranian leadership's preparation for a repulsion of a possible military strike against the IRI itself. In any event the fierce fighting in Syria shows that the Assad regime has no intention of agreeing to the idea of its own impending doom. It is demonstrating in every way that it will fight to the end, and this is yet further indication that a peaceful possibility of overcoming the Syrian conflict is, in essence, no longer conceivable.