FAILURE OF THE "HYPE"

The second half of September saw President Ilham Aliyev's visit to France. Although the visit had a working nature, it was of great importance both for the development of bilateral Azerbaijani-French relations and in the context of the regional geopolitical situation. Indeed, after the long reign of Jacques Chirac's centre-right government and then Nicolas Sarkozy in France, this spring's presidential election was won by Socialist Francois Hollande. Taking into account the economic and political weight of France in the world and, in particular, in Europe, and the fact that this country is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict settlement, the establishment of a working relationship with the new leader of this power is crucial.

On the first day of the visit, Ilham Aliyev and Francois Hollande held a meeting at the Elysee Palace. They had a useful exchange of views on issues related to various areas of cooperation between Azerbaijan and France. They noted that these relations are developing successfully in the political, economic and cultural spheres and stressed the active role of French companies in the Azerbaijani economy. They exchanged views on the progress of the negotiations on the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict and the steps to be taken in this direction. The presidents reaffirmed their commitment to the development of bilateral relations between France and Azerbaijan and the further deepening of economic and cultural cooperation between the two countries.

On the same day, the president of the Azerbaijan Republic, Ilham Aliyev, held a meeting with the former president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, who still remains a very influential person in the French public and political scene despite the fact that he has announced his retirement from politics.

President Ilham Aliyev and his spouse Mehriban Aliyeva attended the opening of new halls of Paris' Louvre museum dedicated to Islamic art. Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Oman and Morocco played an important role in this project. President Francois Hollande said in his speech that the main objective of this project, which started to be realized in 2008, is to demonstrate the versatility and universal importance of the Louvre and shows France's attitude to the Islamic civilization. He added: "I want to express my deep gratitude to those who showed goodwill and assisted at the required time, in particular to the president of the Azerbaijan Republic and other distinguished guests. They are one of our many partners. They are friends of France. They gave this project great assistance. I hope that this goodwill will be continued in the future."

The visit saw another important event in the modern Azerbaijani-French relations - the opening of a centre of Azerbaijani culture created with the support of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation and our embassy in France. Located in the heart of Paris - near the Eiffel Tower, in a beautiful architectural building of the early 20th century, the Azerbaijani cultural centre covers an area of three thousand square metres and presents ample opportunities for a diverse range of humanitarian activities associated with our country. It operates a library and expositions that introduce visitors to the rich history and culture of Azerbaijan, a meeting room for events, etc. Speaking at the ceremony, President Ilham Aliyev said: "Today is a significant day in the history of French-Azerbaijani relations. An Azerbaijani cultural centre is starting to work in the center of Paris. It is no accident that the first cultural centre of our country abroad opens in the capital of France. French-Azerbaijani relations are developing successfully and rapidly." He highlighted the major role of the president of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation and head of the Azerbaijan-France Inter-Parliamentary Friendship Group, Mehriban Aliyeva, in the development of French-Azerbaijani cultural relations.

At the end of his working visit to France, President Ilham Aliyev met with the leaders of the French business world united in the Association of Entrepreneurs of France - MEDEF. These meetings have become a tradition. President Ilham Aliyev pointed out in his opening remarks: "... The previous meetings with businessmen members of MEDEF made an important contribution to the establishment of an effective partnership between Azerbaijan and France's leading companies in the economic sphere. France is the second largest trading partner of Azerbaijan, and the volume of trade is increasing every year." He noted the leading role of French companies in infrastructure projects being implemented in Azerbaijan (water supply, collection and recycling of household waste, the development of the Baku metro), in communications and space technology and in the exploration, production and transportation of Caspian energy resources. Among them is the Abseron gas condensate field in the Caspian Sea, which is being developed jointly with the French companies TOTAL and Gaz de France. Its potential reserves are estimated at nearly one trillion cubic metres of gas and 150 million tons of oil and condensate. President Aliyev also stressed that Azerbaijan supports the involvement of French companies in the strategic TANAP pipeline project, which will change the energy map of the region and Europe.

Given the political meetings and negotiations, interesting dialogue with representatives of the French business elite and the important cultural activities that attracted much public attention, we can characterize President Ilham Aliyev's working visit to France as very successful.

This is particularly important in the context of total Armenian efforts to discredit and isolate Azerbaijan after the recent extradition of Ramil Safarov from Hungary and his pardoning. The noisy campaign, which resembled hysteria sometimes, initiated by the Armenians and supported by their patrons, failed to yield real results. Unintelligible statements by certain international organizations and politicians expressing bewilderment and regret in this regard cannot make Azerbaijan excuse itself and reverse the case. As for the states, they are guided not by the one-sided Armenian interpretation of the Safarov case, but by their own real interests, which are tied exclusively to Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, especially in the economic context.

President Ilham Aliyev's visit to France, which has a very large and influential Armenian diaspora, on the support of which Yerevan relies most of all in Europe, stressed the futility of efforts against Azerbaijan. No one is going to quarrel with us because of the Armenians. President Aliyev clearly showed it with his visit to France. The French retain their traditional sympathy for the Armenians, but the economic interests even of the present socialist government of Hollande, who is not inclined to blindly support business, outweigh it. After all, Azerbaijan's foreign trade turnover with France last year totalled $ 2.246 billion, and in Armenia the figure is only about 30-35 million, i.e. much lower. And the presentation of the cultural exhibition of Islamic culture at the Louvre Museum and the opening of the Azerbaijani cultural centre in Paris showed that the former dominance of the Armenians is becoming a thing of the past.

As for the negotiations on the peaceful settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, which was allegedly "irreparably damaged" by the pardoning of Safarov, they have had an imitation nature and have been treading water for more than a year. But the West, Russia and Armenia feel comfortable showing the presence of dialogue between the parties to the conflict and inspire optimistic expectations. This is especially important for Sargsyan, who has presidential elections soon, where he is going to run with empty luggage. Over the past four years, Armenia has failed to get out of the pit of the 15-per-cent downturn of 2008. Armenia's external debt is increasing, exceeding the critical threshold of 40 per cent of GDP. The standard of living is stagnant because of inflation, and in the opinion of many Armenian and foreign economists, it is even falling. Hundreds of thousands are leaving Armenia as they see no positive prospects for themselves. The pause in the negotiations and the increased risk of renewed war with Azerbaijan also give ordinary Armenians no optimism and confidence in the authorities' actions. It is clear that President Sargsyan and his team feel very uncomfortable in this situation.

Ramil Safarov's release caused confusion, first of all, among those who do not like the settlement of the Karabakh conflict based on international law and those who are trying to preserve the status quo of "no peace, no war", hoping to eventually persuade Azerbaijan to accept territorial losses and agree to Yerevan's demands. Ramil's pardoning is a demonstration of Azerbaijan's readiness for a tough confrontation with Armenians until the complete liberation of all our occupied territories. Armenian attempts to organize an international propaganda campaign to influence us are doomed to failure. President Ilham Aliyev said at a recent conference of ambassadors: "Azerbaijan has become such a country that it is impossible to put pressure on us and blackmail us."