MANKIND'S DEMOGRAPHIC OPTION

It all started in 1987 when the Earth's population reached 5 billion. That day was tentatively called Five Billion Day. And just two days later the UN approved an international holiday - World Population Day, which is marked every year on 11 July.

Some people may ask: why do we need this date? The point is the increase in the population of our species sets mankind new challenges, such as a shortage of medicines and drinking water, urbanization, the quality of foodstuffs and drinking water, youth employment, and many others. But back in 1950 there were only 2.5 billion of us on Earth. In other words, in just 60 years our numbers have almost trebled!

Every year on 11 July the UN speaks about the problems linked with demography. This year, for example, it is saying that every year about 16 million people throughout the world under the age of 18 become mothers. Another 3.2m girls have dangerous abortions. Ninety per cent of pregnant teenage girls in the developing countries are married. However, the majority of these girls have virtually no say in whether to take contraceptives or have sexual relations in general. Very often pregnancy is the consequence of discrimination, violation of rights (including child marriages), a poor level of education or sexual violence. In her report on this subject last year a UN expert, Nancy Williamson, a teacher at the School for Global Public Health, noted: "Pregnancy changes the present and future of a girl in a radical way, and by no means always for the best. It can mean the end of her education, the end of any prospect of a job and increases many times over her vulnerability to poverty, isolation and dependence."

The task, in the UN's opinion, is to increase awareness of the problems linked with the increase in population. Since World Population Day has been in existence there has been a debate of such subjects as "General access to services in the field of reproductive health", "The struggle against poverty", "Education for girls", "Planning a family means planning your future", "Men as partners in protecting the health of the mother", "Young people in employment" and "Equality of the sexes". As the sociologists point out, these subjects become more and more relevant year on year.

All's well with demography

The Azerbaijani State Statistics Committee estimated the population of the country at the end of 2013 at 9,356,000. Our country was 130th among 224 countries in terms of numerical growth of the population. This is an average figure in practical terms. In Africa, for example, the population growth is so rapid that it is leading to an ecological disaster, but in Eastern Europe, on the other hand, the population is reducing from year to year. Here, in Azerbaijan, there are on average 2-3 children per family, which is slightly higher than the ideal required average growth. So, demographic problems are not threatening to a country with such a level of development.

Literally a few days ago, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Population drew up a draft State Programme for the development of demography and population in Azerbaijan. This important draft programme was prepared on the basis of a development concept "Azerbaijan-2020: Outlook for the Future", which was endorsed by President Ilham Aliyev's decree of 29 December 2012. The state programme provides for priority areas of development based on the results of existing demographic processes up to 2025.

A very important factor in demography is the Index of Human Development (IHD), which until 2013 was called the Index of Development of Human Potential. This is an integrated figure which is calculated every year to compare and measure standards of living, literacy, education and longevity between countries as basic indications of human potential in a given area. In this category Azerbaijan was one of the countries with a high level of IHD, with a figure of 82.

Fun with studying the future

The Russian physicist and demographer Sergey Kapitsa, the son of the celebrated academic Petr Kapitsa, said in 1995 that population growth worldwide had begun to slow down suddenly, one might say mysteriously.

The countries of Asia, which had always been noted for their high birth rate, had demographically become "quieter", and there is actually high growth in Africa. But there, too, as in the world in general, there has been a tendency towards a reduction in the rate of growth. According to the academic's forecasts, by 2030, given this same behaviour pattern, the Earth's population would be 10 billion.

Generally speaking, classical demography has for years not foreseen the dynamic of a population growth worldwide - the margins for error and the scope have been too great. It was the historians who took the first step in this direction. In the 20th century many leading historians - the French Braudel, Conrad and the Soviet scientist Dyakonov - chose precisely this global approach to the study of history. As a consequence historians and demographers all over the world took this on board. And it emerged that throughout its whole history mankind has been developing in a hyperbolic curve. In other words, the world's population has increased quadratically. And concurrent with this, Kapitsa writes, phases of history were also reduced very rapidly. The result is that today the world is changing much faster and history is developing literally within the sight of one generation. So, what is happening now is nothing other than mankind's transition to a qualitatively new phase. It is characterized by a global demographic transition which is suspending the population growth of the whole planet. Scientists, demographers, physicists, futurologists and sociologists are calling this period "technological singularity".

One of the main problems today is good-quality food. Almost all varieties of basic fruit plants are genetically-modified. Scientists are sounding the alarm about this, but the harm of GM has not been proved unequivocally, and it is impossible to feed such a number of people any differently. Other spheres of our life are also closely linked with science, and only science, education and scientific-technical progress will enable all of us, the whole human civilization, to enter the future in the proper manner.