GENERAL REHEARSAL BEFORE THE DECISIVE BATTLE?

The next parliamentary elections in Georgia, which are to be held on 1 October, are a subject of close attention and special interest for the West. In this context the latest visit by the Secretary-General of the North Atlantic alliance, Anders Rasmussen, to the country was linked with precisely these fundamental realities. In Georgia, apart from a meeting with the country's political leaders, Rasmussen spoke at the annual session of heads of Georgian diplomatic missions abroad, which was led by Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze.

We should point out that apart from the NATO Secretary-General, the foreign ministers of Poland, Sweden, Fiji and Argentina also took part in this conference. At the same time three influential US senators flew to Tbilisi: Lindsay Graham, John McCain and Joseph Lieberman, who had meetings both with the authorities and the opposition, including the leader of the Georgian Dream coalition, Bidzina Ivanishvili. Any visit carried out to Georgia recently by high-ranking western officials and political figures first and foremost underlines this attention and interest and that the incumbent Georgian authorities see it as unconditional support for official Tbilisi. It is not by chance that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili described the visits of Rasmussen, the American senators and the foreign ministers of the aforementioned countries as "a day of triumph for Georgian diplomacy".

It should be noted that such an interpretation is more than incidental for the Georgian authorities in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, when experts are noting the critical level of polarization in Georgian society, and against the background of recent armed clashes on the Dagestani sector of the Russian-Georgian border. During a combat operation carried out by the Georgian special services, about 11 militants were killed out of a well armed group of 20 men, some of whom were Russian citizens from the North Caucasus. Three members of the Georgian special services were also killed during the operation. Saakashvili saw the incident as a test of Georgia's combat readiness and an attempt at a provocation: "Those who organized all this had a number of tasks. One of them was to test our combat readiness. Their second task was, I think, to organize a provocation, and I think they failed in this. This was of a very important political nature because the invader of our country wants to create certain pretexts - such things directly or indirectly help to create such pretexts."

It is natural that against the background of these events official Tbilisi's western partners are trying in every way to demonstrate their political support for the Georgian authorities. None of them hides the fact that in this question the Georgian authorities can boldly count on them. Nevertheless, they all make it clear that the fundamentally important thing as far as they are concerned is that democratic parliamentary elections are held. Among other things, the American senators said that Washington will be closely monitoring how democratic and transparent they are. John McCain, a former presidential candidate, added that "relations between Georgia and the US depend on the fairness of these elections".

The NATO Secretary-General did not fail to recall the need to ensure free and fair elections. Praising Georgia's contribution to the North Atlantic alliance's Afghan operation, Rasmussen nevertheless stressed that a rapprochement between Georgia and NATO would to a great extent depend on the development of democratic institutions and especially the October parliamentary elections. The Polish and Swedish foreign ministers - Radoslaw Sikorski and Carl Bildt - spoke in similar vein, noting that the EU is very closely monitoring the election campaign in Georgia. And Brussels is hoping that these elections, from the point of view of quality and standards, will be better than the (presidential and parliamentary) elections in 2008 and the (local) elections in 2010. At the same time, it was particularly emphasized that appraisal of the elections was, first and foremost, a matter for the international observers, and not the parties involved in the elections. Brussels' concerns over the increasing polarization of society in Georgia in the run-up to the parliamentary elections were also expressed in his statement by the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security, Catherine Ashton, and the European Commissar for Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy, Stefan Fule, who called on the government and the opposition to ensure a pleasant and specific electoral environment and a healthy situation for the work of the media.

Welcoming this statement, Georgia's ruling party - the United National Movement - which has 119 mandates in the 150-seat unicameral Georgian parliament noted that it speaks about the considerable progress achieved in integration between Georgia and the EU. In the opinion of ruling party functionaries, who see all the aforementioned comments as support for the Georgian authorities, this is further confirmation of the fact that the EU recognizes the considerable reforms carried out in Georgia. Significantly, western politicians, by demonstrating their support for official Tbilisi in such a straightforward manner, during the course of their visits made sure they also met with representatives of the opposition. Particular attention was focused on the main opponent of the incumbent Georgian authorities - the leader of the Georgian Dream coalition, the billionaire Ivanishvili, who is perceived as a pro-Russian politician, and at times almost as Moscow's placeman. It should be pointed out that one curious detail may be traced in the actions of western politicians who speak about their vested interest in democratic and fair elections being held in Georgia. Whereas, as a rule, the western structures and political figures in many countries place responsibility for holding elections that meet high democratic standards exclusively on the authorities, in the case with Georgia such a demand is placed not just on the government but also on the opposition. The EU, which is urging all parties to observe electoral law, is warning them against allowing violence and tension and arousing enmity. Such an appeal clearly shows that the West is issuing a warning to the Georgian opposition: "Whatever the outcome the official results must be recognized without reservation. And any protests on these grounds will be viewed as a provocation." 

Meanwhile, the opposition promises that the ruling party United National Movement is preparing not for the elections but for their falsification and the subsequent legitimization of their tenure in office, but also promises that this will not happen: "There will be a battle for every vote." The authorities, for their part, say that the opposition coalition Georgian Dream is preparing not so much for the elections themselves as for the post-election processes - street disturbances, chaos and an attempt to overthrow the legitimate authority and turn Georgia into the orbit of Russia's influence. Significantly, Georgian President Saakashvili, back in March of this year, answering charges by his former colleague and now a member of the opposition coalition and leader of the Our Georgia - Free Democrats party, Irakli Alasania, described talk about a civil war as "highly immoral" and "idiotic". At the time, Alasania, at a meeting with representatives of the diplomatic corps accredited to Tbilisi, said that the Georgian authorities are creating militarized groups in the west of the country and expressed the supposition that President Saakashvili was preparing for a "civil war and confrontation", because he was not preparing the ground for free and fair elections. Meanwhile, former President Eduard Shevardnadze, who openly supports the opposition, has sharply criticized the incumbent Georgian authorities. Pointing out the daily increase in prices and the high level of unemployment, he noted that instead of creating conditions for improving the lives of the population the authorities are taking measures which are leading to their deterioration. He advises the authorities in the country to think realistically about improving people's lives and taking measures in this direction, otherwise the patience of the people, who will not tolerate such a policy for long, may be exhausted. At the same time, in Shevardnadze's opinion, Saakashvili is prepared even at the cost of his life to stay in office: "Saakashvili will do anything and we must be prepared for the worst scenario. He will even risk bloodshed, although this will eventually be the end of him. He will not stay in office without bloodshed. There will be sacrifices but only the people can stop him. Saakashvili cannot kill everyone in Georgia, no matter how many people he shoots or puts in prison." The official authorities, for their part, say "they do not need any advice from Shevardnadze who through his policies led the country to a serious crisis". The authorities believe that in recent years much has been done to reduce unemployment and improve living standards. Saakashvili's ex-colleague and former Foreign Minister Salome Zurbashvili has also joined the ranks of fierce opponents, urging to do away with the despotism of Georgia's incumbent president. She accuses the Georgian authorities, in particular the Saakashvili - Merabishvili (prime minister) tandem, of preparing an analogy of the Russian power-wielding pattern along the lines of Putin - Medvedev. Frankly speaking, criticism from Shevardnadze and Saakashvili's former colleagues is more likely to strike the opposition like a boomerang, bringing the authorities considerable dividends. Because many people in the country are openly describing Shevardnadze as the last satrap of Georgia, with whose active participation the first shoots of freedom were withered 20 years ago. And the "treachery" of Saakahsvili's former colleagues brings them no honour. While they were being protected by the president's authority everything was fine, but as soon as they left the president's team they became avid members of the opposition and were prepared to pull to pieces Saakashvili's anti-popular and ruinous policy.

According to a recent study, the majority of Georgians (36%) still support the ruling United National Movement. The Georgian Dream opposition can at the moment count on the support of 18% of the electorate. Significantly, the Georgian authorities' main opponent, Ivanishvili, unlike the rest of the opposition, is trying like a businessman to widen the ranks of his supporters by making specific proposals in the social sphere. Among other things, he promises that after victory at the parliamentary elections on 1 October and his coming to power in Georgia he will give back to refugees the benefits they had before and which the present government has deprived them of. New benefits will also be introduced for them: "The refugees will not pay taxes for the use of gas, electricity and water. They will be provided with plots of land and everything they need to work them - seeds, fertilizer and equipment, and all this will be free for the first few years. The state will be responsible for delivering produce from the refugees' farms to the market and for selling it and to carry out agriculture we shall be issuing them with cheap credits for a 10-20 year term."

By improving the situation of the refugees he is trying to win back the interest and trust of the Abkhazian and Ossetian brothers. When people in Abkhazia and South Ossetia see that life and the situation of the refugees from Georgia has improved they will start to think about returning to Georgia. A programme for the return of refugees to their homes will also be launched. But the return of the refugees to Abkhazia is a task that is much more complex than the return of refugees to Tskhinvali, because in Abkhazia almost all the homes that belonged to the refugees are already occupied. Ivanishvili plans to solve this problem by building new European-type houses in Abkhazia to take 3-4 families. He said he has already built such houses in his native Sachkher District. In Abkhazia, he reckons, no less than 100,000 such houses will have to be built, and this will require $4-6bn. In the sphere of foreign policy Ivanishvili, who is believed to be a pro-Russian politician, is a supporter of diversified mutual relations. While discoursing on the subject of building peace in the Caucasus, he advocates a firm and principled dialogue with Russia. At the same time he believes a simultaneous commitment to NATO is possible because he is convinced that NATO and a pro-western course are Georgia's destiny.

Whatever kind of pro-Russian politician Ivanishvili might pass for, his statement about simultaneously having good relations with both Russia and the West will hardly have caught Moscow's fancy. This broadly means that neither the incumbent Georgian authorities, who adopt a clearly anti-Russian position, nor any other political force in Georgia will ever agree on a policy of Moscow's recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And on this main question all the political forces in Georgia are as one and in this the West is prepared to give every support. The only difference may be in tactical approaches to the resolution of this problem. Therefore it is unlikely, whatever the results of the parties at the parliamentary elections, that there will be serious changes in the course of the country's foreign policy. Any changes are likely to be of an individual nature. And the situation will be the same at the presidential elections in January next year although some incidents of a local nature cannot be ruled out. But this in no way means that certain foreign players might not try to rock the boat from within, setting in motion secret levers of influence on destabilizing forces in Georgia. In this context, both Tbilisi and the West are reacting with great suspicion to the planned joint operational-tactical exercises of the Collective Strategic Reaction Forces of the Collective Security Treaty Organization that are currently in progress in Armenia, as well as to the Russian defence Ministry's plans for the re-enlistment of Army sub-units to wipe out the bandit formations in the North Caucasus. Tbilisi and its partners do not rule out the possibility that all these moves by Moscow are directly linked with the parliamentary elections in Georgia which are a general rehearsal before the decisive battle - the presidential elections in January of next year.