LEBANON NEXT IN LINE

The Syrian conflict, which has spread to neighbouring Lebanon, has begun to threaten the security of the whole Near East region. Emotions flared in Lebanon following a video clip on the Internet showing a Lebanese citizen, Hassan al-Mekdad, interrogated by a Syrian militant, admitting that he was a sniper sent to Syria at the beginning of August by the radical movement Hezbollah as one of 1,500 fighters with the task of assisting Bashar Asad's troops. In retaliation the Mekdad clan put out its own video on the Internet in which two abducted Syrians, answering questions by local TV reporters, admitted they were members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). By exchanging mutual "pleasantries" in the form of these video clips, the main Lebanese political forces - the Shiites, who control the Lebanese government and support Asad's regime, and the Sunnis, who oppose the Lebanese Shiites and are calling for the overthrow of the incumbent political regime in Syria - have virtually split Lebanon into two opposing camps. In abiding by the principle "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth", Lebanon's two most powerful political forces - the Shiites and the Sunnis - are in the truest sense of the word capable of dragging Lebanon into the abyss of a civil war.

Air strikes by the Syrian air force on the town of Azaz, north of Aleppo, where 40 people were killed and over 100 injured, have sharply exacerbated the situation. It was reported that 11 Lebanese pilgrims, kidnapped in Syria in May, were among the dead. Although the Lebanese president said that all the hostages were alive and urged that the safety of Lebanese citizens and foreigners in Lebanon should not be put at risk, the fly-wheel of chaos had already been started. The warring sides in Lebanon have started taking hostages from the "enemy" camp. Angry members of the Lebanese Shiite clan, who are seeking the release of a relative from the captivity of Syrian rebels, abducted over 20 people. These were mainly Syrians suspected of links with the FSA, but one of the captives was a Turkish businessman and another apparently a citizen of Saudi Arabia.

A spokesman for the Mekdad clan is also threatening to abduct Qatari and Saudi citizens in Lebanon because these countries have urged their people not to travel to Lebanon or to return home. The OAU and Kuwait have made similar appeals.

The exacerbation of the situation in Lebanon means there is a threat that the situation in the Near East could spiral out of control, dragging this region into a zone of confrontation on ethno-religious lines. The threat of a Shiite-Sunni showdown is becoming particularly real, and this could split the countries of the region into two warring camps. As a result of the clashes in Tripoli, Lebanon's second largest city, over 10 people have already been killed and over 80 injured. Troops stationed between the Alawi and Sunni quarters of the city are trying to knock out the militants' firing positions. Extra government forces are being transferred to the north of the country. A cease-fire agreement, which was achieved through the mediation of the leaders of religious communities and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, came into force on 22 August, but is so far only of a partial nature. As the prime minister admits, only 60% of the Sunni groups have agreed to stop fighting. 

An external sub-text

Moscow, which has expressed anxiety over the events in Lebanon, has urged the sides to stop fighting and observe the cease-fire. But it could happen that external forces who sympathize with the Syrian rebels and the Lebanese Sunnis, and first and foremost Saudi Arabia, will use the opportunity to try to interfere into Lebanese affairs which, in the long term, could end with Sunni rule being established in Lebanon. Then the Lebanese government, which has passed into the hands of the Sunnis, will intensify even more the isolation of the Syrian ruling regime which is already experiencing serious difficulties following the expulsion from the country of the Arab League and the ICO. And a toughening of the position of the new Lebanese authorities in relation to Hezbollah could reduce to a minimum or completely freeze the support and assistance this organization is giving to Bashar Assad's regime. In this context it is not ruled out that certain external forces, and again this means mainly Saudi Arabia, have an extremely vested interest in the coming to power in Lebanon of Saad Hariri, a Lebanese billionaire and politician, the second son of the country's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri (a representative of the Sunni community), who was killed in February, 2005. 

A tribunal into the case of the murder of Rafik Hariri, who was well known for his personal friendship with the late King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, pressed charges against five top-ranking members of the Hezbollah terrorist organization. But, according to circulated reports, the Lebanese Shiite government is using all kinds of pretexts to prevent a just verdict in this case. It should be noted that the late Rafik Hariri, with the support and blessing of King Fahd, obtained a pass to the world of business and big-time politics.  Official Damascus, which categorically denied its involvement in this crime, was also charged with organizing Hariri's murder. Nevertheless, under pressure from the world community caused by Hariri's death, Syria was at the time forced to completely withdraw its troops from Lebanon, which had been there since 1976.  This was facilitated to some degree by the consolidated position of the Lebanese Muslims and Christians who had held a thousands-strong anti-Syrian demonstration following the murder of their revered prime minister. After Hariri's murder, his son Saad headed the anti-Syrian political movement "Tayyar al-Mustaqbal" ("Future Movement").  He is also well-known for his assaults on Hezbollah.

It is significant that in January of last year Lebanese President Suleyman appointed Saad Hariri acting prime minister in the transitional government, after 11 cabinet ministers representing the opposition resigned. Differences between the Hezbollah-led opposition, supported by Syria and Iran, and the West-orientated ruling coalition led by Saad Hariri regarding the investigation into his son's murder were given as the reason for the government crisis at the time. But two weeks later the formation of the new cabinet was entrusted to another billionaire, Najib Mikati. At the same time it was revealed that back in the spring the US, France and Saudi Arabia had told Hariri about an assassination attempt that was being prepared against him. According to some reports, for security considerations the Lebanese politician left the country and went to France and has always been a welcome guest in Saudi Arabia. Saad Hariri himself is married to Lara al-Azem, a member of an influential Syrian family. Thus, it has not been ruled out that it is precisely the interests of external players, who would very much like to see such a colourful figure as Saad Hariri at the head of the Lebanese government, who are behind the exacerbation of the domestic political situation. Especially as the close relative of the influential Syrian clan clearly adheres to a pro-western policy and in this context could be very useful in settling the Syrian crisis.

A new "old" mediator

The escalation of the situation in Lebanon may also be explained by the fact that in place of the special envoy of the UN and the Arab League for Syria, Kofi Annan, whose peace plan had completely collapsed, the UN's choice fell upon the former Algerian Foreign Minister Lahdar Brahimi, who will take up this post on 1 September. Brahimi is considered one of the world's leading diplomats, having taken part in solving complex conflicts, including those in Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq. In 1989 it was through his mediation as the Arab League's special envoy that an agreement was concluded to put an end to the 15-year old civil war in Lebanon. It is significant that the new special envoy requested changes in his powers and a change of title of his post. At the same time he clarified the essence of the changes he requested. But the most interesting thing is that Brahimi's very first statement, before he had even begun officially carrying out his duties, caused serious disquiet in the ranks of the Syrian opposition. In an interview for the Al-Jazeera TV channel, Brahimi said that it was too early to speak about the state of affairs and it was too early for him to discuss the question of the need for Syrian President Bashar Assad to resign. His words were criticized by members of the Syrian National Council who demanded that Brahimi ask the Syrian people for forgiveness: "Brahimi's statement shows his disrespectful attitude to the Syrian people. It is the Syrian people alone who will decide who will be their head of power and how the country will be governed." The new special envoy gave as good as he got: "If anyone should ask for forgiveness it is the Syrian National Council, which should get in touch with me and talk." Such polemic shows that Brahimi and the Syrian opposition will not find it easy to find points of contact for a constructive dialogue and find a common denominator in the search for a peaceful settlement to the domestic political situation in Syria.

Official Damascus, in the shape of Syrian Vice-President Farouk al-Sharaa, welcomed the appointment of the experienced Algerian diplomat to the post of special envoy of the UN and the Arab League for Syria, saying that it supports Brahimi's wish to see unity in the UN Security Council, which as a result would help him to carry out his mediatory mission without hindrance. The appointment of Brahimi to this post was also welcomed by Washington, Brussels, Moscow and Beijing. How justified the UN secretary-general's optimism is may become clear in the near future.