GEORGIA BEFORE THE ELECTIONS

The Georgian Central Electoral Commission has given permission for two blocs and 21 parties to take part in the autumn parliamentary elections. Eight other parties were refused registration.

At the height of the election campaign the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the OSCE (ODIHR/OSCE) officially embarked on its supervisory mission for the parliamentary elections.

Meanwhile, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili personally promised the OSCE mission that the election shortcomings that concerned the opposition would be rectified.

To find out how the voting might go and how the post-election situation might pan out we spoke to Ghia Nodia, former Georgian Education Minister, director of the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, head of a department at the Institute of Philosophy in Tbilisi, and political analyst.

- The campaign for the parliamentary elections that will be held on 1 October is underway in Georgia. What kind of distribution of forces can we expect in the new parliament?

- Judging by the results of recent public opinion polls, the rating of the ruling party is quite high. Approximately 40% of the electorate support the party of power, the United National Movement, and about 20% support the main opposition party, Georgian Dream. However, in the polls there were many people who have still not made up their mind. So it is difficult to give a clear forecast of the results of the elections, but the ruling party is expected to win. The high polarization of society gives cause for concern. Emotions are running high. There have been clashes from time to time. But I don't think that there will be any significant incidents before the elections. However, it may all happen after the elections if the opposition loses and doesn't accept the results of the ballot. The opposition has already said that it does not trust the results of the polls and assures its supporters that they will win with a large majority. In other words, potentially the opposition will not accept the election results and this gives cause for concern.

-  Are the conditions for holding free and just elections up to standard?

- It is difficult to say whether distinctive conditions have been created. Yes, there are some people who are unhappy about the electoral process. There have been reports that opposition supporters have been harassed. The ruling party has the advantage when it comes to the media, because most of the television channels, which cover the whole country, support the authorities. But there are channels that support the opposition. A law which commits all TV channels to cover the opposition's election campaign has already come into force. On the whole the law increases the access of the population to information about all the parties taking part in the elections. I wouldn't say that there are absolutely equal conditions at the elections, but the opposition does have the opportunity to convey its messages, appeals and promises to the people. In any event, the elections are sufficiently competitive.

- Are there any parties at the elections that are calling for a change in Georgia's foreign policy? For example, towards rapprochement with Russia?

- There are some politicians in the ruling party who believe the leaders of the Georgian Dream are Russia's puppets or who express the mindset of that section of the population for whom an improvement in relations with Russia is a priority. Although opposition leader Ivanishvili is nominally in favour of joining NATO and integration with the European Union, his rhetoric is not very consistent in this direction. There are grounds for believing that if he wins he will try to change Georgia's foreign policy. But it is not clear which foreign political course the country will take if the opposition wins the elections. Then there is the Georgian Labour Party which is openly orientated towards Russia and opposes integration into NATO and the EU. But this organization doesn't have much chance. Foreign-policy orientation is an important line of demarcation between the parties taking part in the elections.

- At the start of our interview you did not rule out the possibility that there could be incidents between the authorities and the opposition after the elections. How might this happen?

- After the elections in Georgia there could be destabilization and protests of some kind. But a lot depends on how society and foreign observers see it. The opposition's wish to dispute the results of the elections is understandable. At the same time, the development of events after the elections depends on whether the population thinks the results are democratic and reflect the will of the electorate.