HOT SUMMER OF SYRIA

This summer has been very hot for Syria - both literally and figuratively. After the government forces took control of virtually all districts of the capital, the armed opposition, changing tactics, put the focus of strikes on the country's northern capital - the financial and economic center of Aleppo located just 25 kilometers from the border with Turkey. The government troops and special forces deployed in the collision zone, engaging in fierce battles with the opposition, began to force it out of the city. As a result, the rebels were forced to leave Aleppo. A published military summary says that helicopters and artillery units dealt pinpoint blows to the positions of the militants. As a result of the stand-off, the life of the business center in the west of Aleppo was paralyzed, while city residents began to leave their homes in panic.

Simultaneously, the country's security forces raided the Rukn al-Din quarter of Damascus, capturing and disarming dozens of opponents of the regime. Operations to eliminate the armed units that had infiltrated into the country from Jordan were also carried out around the city of Deraa 110 km south of the capital. Units of mercenaries that had tried to penetrate deep into Syria south of the city of Homs were destroyed on the border with Lebanon. In Homs proper, Syria's industrial center 165 km north of Damascus, a cleanup is under way in the old neighborhoods where there are still pockets of resistance.

Tensions over the Syrian issue continue to run high in the international arena. In early August, the special envoy of the UN and the League of Arab States (LAS) on Syria, Kofi Annan, announced his retirement from his post at the end of his mandate on 31 August. This decision was taken because of the actual failure of his peace mission. The special envoy noted that his work was complicated by the split in the international community, which has yet to reach agreement on the Syrian issue.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expressed his deep regret at Kofi Annan's departure. Consultations are currently under way as to who will succeed Mr. Annan. The potential candidacies include the former NATO Secretary General, Javier Solana, and the former Finnish president, Martti Ahtisaari. It is remarkable that the outgoing Kofi Annan has urged the presidents of the United States and Russia to show courage and leadership in saving Syria from the disaster. In a statement, Annan said that although the Syrian opposition did not provide him with significant support, the primary responsibility for the failure of his mission rests on Bashar al-Assad. In his view, the main precondition for stabilizing the political situation in Syria is the resignation of President Bashar al-Assad, of which he must be convinced by all countries with influence on the parties to the conflict. Russia, China and Iran have to urge the leadership of Syria to adhere to the political settlement plan. Meanwhile, the USA, Britain, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have to convince the opposition that it must participate in a comprehensive political process.

The problem is that the political situation in Syria has become a hostage of the geopolitical confrontation between the West and the supporters of the current Syrian regime. Apparently, it will not be possible to reach a consensus in this plane. Moscow has blamed the West for Kofi Annan's departure from the post of special envoy, saying that by sidelining Kofi Annan, the West plans to free its hands for a military solution. Washington, in turn, has put the blame on Bashar al-Assad, as well as Moscow and Beijing, noting that using the right of veto they did not give the UN Security Council the opportunity to implement Kofi Annan's plan.

The confrontational spirit of the relationship between the opponents and supporters of the Syrian government manifested itself again during a UN General Assembly debate, which passed a new resolution on Syria prepared by Saudi Arabia. This time round, under pressure from Moscow and Beijing, the requirement for al-Assad's resignation and a condemnation of the practice of vetoing UN Security Council resolutions on Syria were removed and the proposed wording weakened. At the same time, the document demands that Damascus stop using heavy weaponry and withdraw troops from the cities. The resolution was supported by 133 countries and rejected by 31, including Russia and China which traditionally occupied a central place. Although the resolution is purely advisory in nature, Moscow has once again lashed out against its initiators. Russia's representative to the UN, V. Churkin, openly declared that Moscow would not change its position on the Syrian issue, be it in the form of binding resolutions or advisory documents. But Washington and its allies do not intend to change their position either. They insist that al-Assad must resign and transfer power to the Government of national unity.

The US persistence in the Syrian issue is explained by attempts to implement the Greater Middle East project in which the Syrian question is one of the key points. This project envisages the establishment of full US geopolitical control over the Middle East, the biggest energy region of the world. To achieve this goal, Washington, by betting on moderate Islamists in the Middle Eastern countries, strongly contributes to the rise to power of political forces that will adhere to pro-Western foreign policies. So far, Damascus, with the support of Moscow, Beijing and Tehran, openly opposes these plans. At the same time, the solution of the Syrian problem by the US scenario is also crucial for US President Barack Obama personally. His political future (reelection) largely depends on the White House's success on this issue.

It is noteworthy that the Syrian issue is also a matter of honor for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who aims to secure the status of a superpower for his country. The realization of the Greater Middle East project and concessions in the Syrian issue clearly contradict Russia's geopolitical interests. First of all, any political force or figure replacing the current Syrian regime will not lead a pro-Russian policy. Second, the change of power in Syria will eventually lead to a closure of Russia's only naval base in the Mediterranean. Third, at stake is the authority of Russia in the Middle East and the Islamic world. Fourth, it is obvious that the Syrian issue will be followed by the Iranian one, as envisaged by the Greater Middle East project. And the importance of Iran to Moscow outweighs all Middle Eastern countries put together, because it would mean the loss of Russia's geopolitical influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. As a result, Moscow fears destabilization of the situation on its own territory - in the North Caucasus, where the Muslim Brotherhood, which is getting closer to the West in the wake of the "Arab Spring", can expand its tireless activities.

The positions of the West, which supports the Syrian opposition, seem to be more preferable in this geopolitical confrontation. Apparently, the current political regime of Syria will not last long. But the Rubicon has been crossed. Neither the conflicting parties nor their foreign supporters have left the field for maneuvering, driving each other into a corner. The regime change in Syria may also happen without external intervention, as feared by Damascus and its defenders. The civil war and the unilateral economic sanctions against Syria have made the position of the current political regime much more vulnerable. Syria, which contributes at least 15 per cent to oil supplies to the EU, had to cut these supplies after the introduction of energy sanctions by Brussels last year. As a result, although the Syrian oil is offered with an impressive discount, it is becoming increasingly problematic for Damascus to find buyers. There is an acute shortage of hard currency in the country, there is a process of devaluation. In this context, the opposition attempts to take control of the financial and economic capital of Syria, Aleppo, look like a thought-out tactic.

Meanwhile, Damascus is looking for ways to resolve its economic problems and has already asked Moscow for help. Syrian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Domestic Trade and Consumer Protection Qadri Jamil and Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Saeed Heneidy asked Moscow to deliver energy and provide a loan. According to Syrian officials, Moscow has responded positively to the request and arrangements can be achieved in the coming weeks. But Russia has yet to make an official comment. Jamil also noted that President al-Assad, in a meeting with Belarusian Prime Minister Sergei Sidorsky, expressed an interest in Syria's presence in the free trade zone of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. It is possible that the statement was made in the hope of a positive outcome of the request of the Russian loan.

Meanwhile, the number of deserters from the camp of the ruling elite is constantly increasing. According to some reports, more than 20 or even 30 generals have fled Syria. The most resonant event was the rejection of al-Assad on the part of Brigadier General Manaf Tlass, who was part of the "inner circle" of the Syrian president, the commander of the elite Republican Guard and the son of the former Syrian Defense Minister, Mustafa Tlass. Manaf Tlass, who first fled to Turkey and then to France, returned to Syria and called on the troops to follow his example. "A decent officer cannot idly watch the war crimes being committed by the Assad regime. As soon as the current Syrian regime falls, I will be ready to serve my country again." Incidentally, it is possible that the West may view M. Tlass as a candidate to head the transitional government of national unity. Especially if it is deemed appropriate to temporarily transfer the reins to the military opposition (through the establishment of the Supreme Military Council), as was the case in Egypt. Another prominent defector among the generals was the military pilot, the first Syrian astronaut and Hero of the Soviet Union, Mohammed Faris. While Faris does not have political clout, he still remains a symbol of his country's development, and his renunciation of al-Assad was a blow to the credibility of Damascus. Other representatives of the diplomatic corps who have defected to the opposition include Syrian Ambassador to Iraq Nawaf al-Fares, Syrian Ambassador to the UAE and career diplomat Abdel Latif Al Dabbagh, his wife and Charge d'Affaires in Cyprus Lamia al-Hariri. In fact, she renounced al-Assad the day before her husband did.

But perhaps the most shocking for al-Assad was the defection of the chief of protocol of the Syrian presidential administration, Muhiddin Maslamani, and the escape to Jordan of Prime Minister Riyad Hijab, who was appointed head of the government in June this year. According to the opposition, the prime minister began planning his escape from Damascus together with the rebels immediately after his appointment. But since he was constantly surrounded by armed guards loyal to al-Assad, he had to take care of the safety of his family.

By a presidential decree, Wa'il Nader al-Khalq, who previously served as health minister, has been appointed as chairman of the Council of Ministers. Despite losing his allies, al-Assad is trying to close the ranks of the "inner circle" even more. In theory, it should remain faithful to him until the last minute. Against the backdrop of escalating tensions, the Syrian president has completed his reshuffle of senior officers and security officials, by appointing his most trusted associates to key posts. But can these convulsive efforts extend the life of the ruling

Syrian regime? It is unlikely.