PROBLEMATIC TEHRAN

The crisis around Tehran's nuclear program is being supplemented with new facts. The latter seem to further aggravate the situation which is unfolding in close contact with the developments in the Middle East, primarily Syria. 

American-Israeli nuances 

The Western world is widely discussing the media report circulated by the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz" regarding new evidence of US, British, French, German and Israeli intelligence services whereby Iran has achieved more progress in the development of its nuclear program than previously thought. The information on a new stage of Iran's nuclear program has been provided by the Iranian Mujahideen opposition group "Al-Khalq", according to which Iranian scientists are already working on warheads and detonators. At the same time, the US Institute for Science and International Security has released satellite images of a base in Parchin which, according to Western intelligence agencies, clearly indicate that this is the site where Iran is developing nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, as reported by other Israeli media, President Barack Obama has received a new US intelligence report on the Iranian nuclear program. It also points to Iran's significant progress in uranium enrichment. A similar report of 2007 stated that Iran has reversed its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and never returned to it. This time, however, US intelligence agencies claim that Tehran has made "unexpected" progress in developing key elements of its nuclear program.

The new intelligence data have given Israel the ammunition to say again that Iran is already close to developing a nuclear weapon and is using the negotiations with six international mediators (five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany) only to gain time.

In this regard, Tel Aviv did not miss the opportunity to recall its intention to make a preventive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. During a visit of the US presidential candidate, Republican Mitt Romney, to Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a US or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would topple the Ayatollahs the same way it did in Uganda in 1976, when the IDF carried out the "Thunderball" operation which led to the defeat of dictator Idi Amin.

There is another interesting aspect. Touching upon the US intelligence report, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, "It contains facts and estimates of Iran's nuclear program that are similar to the information we have. All this makes it necessary to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue even more urgently." But the White House has dismissed such statements. Representatives of the US National Security Council have said, "We believe there is still time and opportunity to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue diplomatically through international pressure on the Iranian authorities. We continue to believe that Iran will not get closer to developing a nuclear weapon in the near future."

Such nuances clearly indicate that even if the United States believes, through the latest intelligence, that Iran is likely to approach the creation of a nuclear bomb, it does not deem it appropriate for Israel to deal a pre-emptive strike against it, at least in the near future.

Washington thus constrains the belligerent ardor of Israel, which is spoiling for a fight or trying to create such an impression in order to put pressure on Iran.

It was probably under the US influence that Saudi Arabia made a surprise announcement regarding its readiness to intercept Israeli aircraft in the event of strike against Iran. It is unexpected because the Saudis have made no secret of their dislike for the ambitions of Tehran's leadership to play the leading role in the Muslim world. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly made clear its interest in eliminating the Iranian regime.

In response, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said he had not received reports from US officials regarding the intention to Saudi Arabia to shoot down Israeli planes. Israeli media, however, have published reports that Riyadh may allow Israeli planes to fly over its territory if a military attack on Iran is coordinated with the USA and is not one-sided.

The above information points to a close coordination between the United States and Saudi Arabia. But it does not in any way deny the fact of the inviolability of the American-Israeli alliance as such in relation to all matters of Middle Eastern politics.

In this regard, the following report is rather interesting. The National Security Advisor to the US President, Thomas Donilon, revealed plans for a military strike against Iran in talks with Benjamin Netanyahu. In particular, he assured the Israeli side of America's ability to destroy even the underground facilities of the Iranian nuclear industry. But Donilon confirmed that Washington considered a military attack on Iran as the last argument in case negotiations fail.

Obviously, by postponing the military action against Iran, the United States urges Tel Aviv to delay its pre-emptive strike and rely on Washington's ability to protect both its own and Israeli interests in the "Iran" issue.

"The USA has "its own eyes" within Iran's nuclear program, and when the Islamic Republic makes a breakthough and moves from scientific and technological developments to the process of building a nuclear bomb, the USA will know about that," White House spokesman Jay Carney has reassured the Israelis. He added that there was still room for diplomacy and economic sanctions against Iran which should be further tightened.

Affirming the American approach, US President Barack Obama has signed into law new sanctions against Iran adopted by the US Congress on 2 August. According to the chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the document "substantially 'blacklists' Iran's energy sector" and any "foreign companies doing business with it". In addition, a ban has been introduced for US entrepreneurs to do business with Iranian companies involved in the extraction of hydrocarbons, shipping and insurance. Thus, the new US law on sanctions against Iran is set to continue the policy of "oil containment" of Tehran and significantly reduce the exports of Iranian raw materials.

Under the law, the USA has also imposed sanctions against the Syrian state company "SITROL", which is accused of sending 33,000 metric tons of petrol to Iran. According to the Americans, this is well above the threshold as part of anti-Iranian sanctions. According to the US State Department spokesman, Patrick Ventrella, "such transactions allow Iran to continue to develop its nuclear program, while providing resources for the Syrian government's oppression of its own people".

Anti-Turkish move

Meanwhile, Tehran seems determined to further develop its nuclear program and counter the plans of the USA and its allies, including Israel, to eliminate the hotbeds of anti-Western policy in the region. The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, who has visited Damascus expressed support for the Syrian regime. In talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Iranian politician confirmed that Damascus was one of Tehran's key partners in the region, therefore "Iran will not allow the West to break the axis of resistance, of which Syria is an important part".

It is noteworthy that Jalili arrived in Damascus from Beirut, where he met with Lebanese leaders and the head of the radical movement "Hezbollah", Hassan Nasrallah, a key ally of Tehran. Meanwhile, the immediate cause of Jalili's visits consisted not only in expressing support for Iran's allies - Bashar al-Assad and "Hezbollah".

On 4 August, Syrian rebels took hostage 48 Iranian citizens, including several retired members of the Revolutionary Guard. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said that the retirees are currently not connected to the paramilitary organization and had come to Syria as pilgrims to visit Shiite shrines. Salehi also visited Turkey to discuss the general situation in Syria and the incident with the capture of Iranian pilgrims. Iran asked Turkey for help in securing the release of the hostages. 

Meanwhile, Iranian-Turkish relations have significantly deteriorated in recent days following a statement by the Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Seyyed Hassan Firuzabadi, who blamed Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia for the bloodshed in Syria. Moreover, Firuzabadi said that if Turkey continued to "promote the incendiary policy" of the USA in Syria, it would be the "next in turn". Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said in a meeting with his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar noted that the statements describing Turkey as a country responsible for the violence in Syria were unacceptable. A separate statement of the Turkish Foreign Ministry says, "We strongly condemn the statements full of false accusations and the extremely inappropriate threats against our country by some Iranian officials."

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for his part, said, "The statements by the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Iran suggesting that the responsibility for the bloodshed in Syria falls on Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are very regrettable. Despite Iran's isolation from the world, Turkey has always supported it and defended Iran in its nuclear program."

However, Ankara's dissatisfaction over the anti-Turkish statements of the Iranian general did not impact on its position on the hostages. According to Davutoglu, Turkey will do its best to have the Iranian nationals detained by rebels from the Syrian Free Army released.

South Azerbaijan syndrome 

The political wrangling with Turkey provoked by Iran should convince Tehran that it is wrong to portray countries that actually stand by Iran as its enemies. Especially at a time when clouds over Iran continue to thicken. This is evidenced, in particular, by the signals from Washington, which apparently is developing the option of using the South Azerbaijan factor in a large-scale anti-Iranian campaign.

In a message to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Congressman Dane Rohrabacher openly stated the need for supporting the fight of South Azerbaijan independence from Iran. "For the USA it is important to support such cooperation because Tehran's tyrannical regime is our common enemy. The people of Azerbaijan were geographically divided 200 years ago and many Azerbaijanis have called for unification of their country. The number of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran in twice as high as in Azerbaijan. This country gained independence in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and now is the time of Iran's Azerbaijanis to gain their freedom. Support for the legitimate aspirations of the Azerbaijani people in the struggle for independence is a noble cause in itself. At the same time, it is a bigger threat for the Tehran regime than the threat of its underground nuclear bunkers being bombed," Rohrabacher said.

Newspaper "Hill" has published an article of former Congressman Michael McMahon, calling for the US administration to support Azerbaijan against threats from Iran. "Most people believe that Iran and its nuclear and missile programs pose a threat to the USA, Israel, Europe and the Arab countries. This is obvious, but the threat to Iran's immediate neighbors, such as Azerbaijan, is not taken into account. It is a modern and secular country, while 25 million ethnic Azerbaijanis living in northern Iran look to their brothers who live the life of a modern nation," McMahon says.

Meantime, Azerbaijan considers it appropriate to strengthen neighborly and friendly relations with Iran. As a country suffering from separatism for more than 20 years, Azerbaijan has taken no action against the territorial integrity of its southern neighbor. Baku has repeatedly made it clear that it would never allow the use of its territory for military strikes against Iran.

At the same time, one must admit that Azerbaijani-Iranian relations continue to be rather tense due to Iran's incessant attempts to put pressure on the foreign and even domestic policies of Baku. In this respect, the Tabriz trial of young Azerbaijani poets arrested in Iran three months ago - Farid Huseyn and Sahriyar Hacizada - cannot be considered as a friendly gesture.

According to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman, Elman Abdullayev, the detention of Farid Huseyn and Sahriyar Hacizada in Iran is still a priority issue for us in relations with our southern neighbor.

Baku has already drawn the necessary conclusions from the actions undertaken by the Iranian authorities regarding Azerbaijani poets. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has issued an official warning that visiting Iran may be unsafe for Azerbaijani citizens. Although the Azerbaijani side does not want a deterioration of relations with Iran, it believes that the actions of the Iranian authorities should be given an adequate assessment in accordance with international law.