ARMENIA: IS THE MAYOR AGAINST THE PRESIDENT?

Mayoral elections set for 9 September in Armenia's second largest city - Gyumri - are at the centre of attention of leading political circles. And there are reasons for this - serious intrigue is afoot: the ruling Republican Party (RPA) has refused to support the "city head", who has been there for many years, preferring the candidate of "Prosperous Armenia" (PPA). The RPA was reckoned to be a political prop for the incumbent president, whereas the PPA is the political platform for Robert Kocharyan's return to power. The Gyumri elections, like the recent parliamentary elections, are being called a "rehearsal for the presidential elections".

It should be pointed out that for the past 12 years the municipal administration in Gyumri has been led by Vardan Ghukasyan, who until recently has seen himself as the city's absolute boss and who is not afraid of making comments in his closest circle such as: "God will never forgive those who go against me. I am leader of this city and anyone who opposes me will become prey to Satan." And he has "imposed order" using methods whereby Gyumri has been described as the "Armenian Sicily" - i.e. exclusively with the help of fire arms.

Today Yerevan's newspapers carry a long list of "armed incidents" involving the mayor himself and his close relatives. For example, in one caf? in Gyumri, Ghukasyan started shooting; a few years ago his son Spartak and a nephew on Gyumri's main street arranged a shoot-out with the son of a local official; quite recently Spartak Ghukasyan, after attending a wedding ceremony, sparked off shooting in various parts of the city; on 6 May during the parliamentary elections Spartak abducted an operator from the "Kentron" TV company, Varazdat Panikyan, from a polling station, and so on and so forth. At the same time there are up to 6,000 homeless families with poverty up to 40% in the city. However, the fact that the mayor steadily "ensured" high results of the elections for the RPA guaranteed his political longevity. Of course, in Yerevan they have assiduously ignored the fact that these results were achieved with the help of pre-election bribes and blackmail.

The first proposals that Vardan Ghukasyan should be "removed" appeared back in the autumn of 2011. And by the spring they had reached boiling point. At the end of March in the vicinity of the local meat-processing plant "a major fight" occurred between National Assembly deputy Martun Grigoryan and the mayor's son's closest circle. The reason for the fight was a row over who would win more votes at constituency No 34 - the PPA or the RPA? Martun Grigoryan is responsible for the PPA's Shirak regional structure, and the mayor of Gyumri for RPA. As the Yerevan media claimed, it was a clash between some young man whom the people of Gyumri know by the nickname of "Sheko" from Martun Grigoryan's closest circle, and one "Tank", who is part of the inner circle of Spartak, the mayor's son. The fight was accompanied by shooting from Mercedes cars racing through the streets of the city. Ghukasyan was no longer seen as the all-powerful boss of the city.

And then a tragic incident occurred in the middle of April. A local resident, Karen Yesayan, 27, was shot in Gyumri. The following day, 13 April, he was due to become engaged to Vardan Ghukasyan's daughter. According to some of the Armenian media, on the morning of the murder, Yesayan had set off from his home to a car-wash, and in the evening his Mercedes car was discovered in the Sev Dur quarter with the body of its owner with gunshot wounds.

However, events then took an unexpected twist. A few hours later a member of the investigation team, 58-year old police Lt-Col Vagram Beyburyan, was killed. He was the victim of a car crash, accidental according to the official version.

But such a chain of "domestic" and "accidental" deaths is all too common in Armenia. Especially as Gyumri Mayor Vardan Ghukasyan himself issued a statement in which he categorically rejected any talk of jealousy and described the murder of his would-be son-in-law as political. At the same time, he clearly passed the buck to "Prosperous Armenia", the party of the "vodka oligarch" Gagik Tsarukyan. And it is from this party that Robert Kocharyan, the former Armenian president, intends to return to front-line politics.

According to reports in the Voice of Armenia newspaper, the main suspect in the murder is the 29-year old Arutyun Sarkisyan, whose father, Samvel, was once chief of police in Aniyskiy District. He was apparently dismissed for obtaining illegal aid in the case of the high-profile murder in 2000 of Khachatur Muradyan, a businessman and the owner of several cafes. The people of Gyumri note the friendship between Sarkisyan's family and Martun Grigoryan, deputy and deputy-candidate of the PPA for constituency 34. And the mayor is due to support his main rival - the republican Arman Saakyan - at the coming elections.

Today it is already well known that in Gyumri the parliamentary elections ended in a resounding flop for the RPA. The pro-presidential party won about 15,000 votes, whereas Prosperous Armenia got about 27,000. The people's anger reached the point where even the most tried and tested methods of falsification came to nought.

The dissatisfaction in Serzh Sargsyan's closest circle knew no bounds. According to some reports, Ghukasyan was ordered to return the money spent on pre-election bribes. The culmination, however, came on 21 July when Vardan Ghukasyan issued a statement saying he was giving up his powers as head of the regional structure of the country's ruling Republican Party. The running of the party's regional structure was entrusted to Saak Minasyan, head of the educational department of the Shirak Regional Administration. According to official reports, Ghukasyan signed the statement about his resignation voluntarily. The mayor explained his decision by the fact that he was "by nature a non-party man and more spiritually disposed" and wants to have a rest from politics for a while. But, Armenian opposition circles are claiming, the day before his resignation the once all-powerful mayor had visited Serzh Sargsyan's residence and that was where he was advised to "take a break from politics".

Of course, the temptation to suggest that the Armenian president was embarking on his long-awaited "purge" of the power-wielding apparatus and had decided to get rid of its most odious figures is great. However, as Armenian analysts point out, "starting from 1998, i.e. with President Robert Kocharyan's coming to power, feudalism (in Armenia - Ed.) has left its mark. As a result of a split in the sphere of interests and the economy between the confidants of Armenia's second president, the country was again divided into regions in which feudal princeling-governors appointed by Kocharyan and his successor, Serzh Sargsyan, rule to this day. But recently the mediaeval system of feudal relations has crashed in Armenia because the feudal-governor-mayors feel alleviated and have moved in defiance of their own patrons. In other words, to put it in simple language, they have started to spit against the wind. A "purge" at the top in such conditions is very dangerous. In this connection the media has another version of Ghukasyan's resignation: the mayor has started playing his "own game", openly demonstrating his contempt for the country's president, which could mean an attempt to seek an alliance with Robert Kocharyan.

To put it another way, the PPA, which is considered to be a "pro-Kocharyan" party, seems to have taken the decision to nominate Samvel Balasanyan for the post of mayor. He is the owner of a brewery in Gyumri. Experts do not rule out the possibility that the RPA might support the nomination of the PPA representative. Although there has been no official wording of this decision yet, in the ruling party they are discussing in what form to present their decision - to nominate Balasanyan as a "single candidate" or simply support a candidate from the PPA. 

But the PPA, as we know, is a long way from being united. It is split into two wings: whereas the supporters of the "vodka oligarch" Gagik Tsarukyan, who accompanied Serzh Azatovich to London, are ready for an alliance with the authorities, the "old hands" in the shape of Robert Kocharyan and former Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan, who joined the PPA, have left for the opposition backwoods, at the same time actively recruiting supporters in the power structures where, it would seem, a real split has begun. In conditions of an ongoing economic collapse and a series of foreign policy failures, the real rating of the incumbent president is approaching zero and, it would seem that many of his supporters clearly have no intention of going down with a sinking ship - they are preparing to seek an alliance with Kocharyan, who represents the same "Karabakh clan".