ARMENIA: OPPOSITION CLOSES RANKS

There is a new sensation in the political life of Armenia. Many experts, in particular, the head of the Armenian presidential administration, Vigen Sargsyan, are convinced that the former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan has offered ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan an alliance. In any case, that's how Vigen Sargsyan described the ex-minister's latest post on Facebook.

It must be remembered that the former foreign minister said on his Facebook page that the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is deadlocked as never before. Oskanyan explains the difficult situation in the process by two reasons: firstly, there is no document that all parties accept as a basis for negotiations, and, secondly, the number of issues that have yet to be agreed has increased over the years.

Now, on the same social network, Vigen Sargsyan expresses surprise at the text of Oskanyan's statement based entirely on assumptions, and invites the reader to accept as an axiom the fact that the settlement of the Karabakh conflict is in a deep impasse. According to Sargsyan, it is impossible to compare "the depth of the dead ends" in terms of the theory of the negotiation process.

"History has repeatedly shown that sometimes seemingly intractable problems can be solved more easily and faster than some conflicts whose solutions are forecast by a number of respected experts. But I want to assure Mr Oskanyan that, as always in such negotiations, the principle of 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed' applies. That is to say the parties' concessions are invalid until there is a final agreement on the document. If we assume that Armenia has always conceded something in the process, then how can we explain that, in his own words, a document that was initially unacceptable to Armenia became unacceptable to Azerbaijan? Armenia, as a conscientious negotiator, is doing everything to reach agreement. But the head of state clearly stated not only in closed formats, but in his public speeches the axis around which a solution acceptable to Armenia and Nagornyy Karabakh can be constructed. That is to say Armenia wants to do everything to ensure that the process is not deadlocked, but our main task is to find a just and lasting solution to the problem, not to solve the problem at any cost through unilateral concessions. By the way, if we believe that the lack of full agreement between the negotiating parties on a solution is a "deep impasse", then the whole history of the negotiations on Nagornyy Karabakh is an endless stalemate, just like all other negotiations," Sargsyan said.

To be honest, you do not need to be a particularly sophisticated diplomat to guess that the negotiation process is really in a deep impasse. And no matter what verbal laces are woven in Yerevan, it is evident that the talks are stymied by the unconstructive position of Yerevan, not otherwise.

However, Vardan Oskanyan's appeal itself is a remarkable fact. In Armenia, "the Karabakh theme" is becoming a leitmotif of domestic policy again - despite the fact that even during the parliamentary election campaign, experts noted that this issue was pushed into the background for the first time, while the focus of attention was socioeconomic issues.

And, secondly, and this is much more important - if previously the opposition accused the government mainly of "conspiring behind the back of the people", etc., now Oskanyan says that the deadlock in the negotiations should be overcome. And Vigen Sargsyan clearly sees here an offer of alliance to Levon Ter-Petrosyan - the same Ter-Petrosyan who was forced to resign as president in 1998 after speaking of the need to compromise on Karabakh and warning that as long as this conflict continues, Armenia will not live well.

And now, against the backdrop of the ongoing economic crisis and the rapid impoverishment of the population, people on the streets of Yerevan, Gyumri, Hrazdan and Vanadzor start to ask tough questions. And they think over the real price of the Karabakh venture if emigration in Armenia has turned into a national disaster. But whether these sentiments are enough for common sense to prevail in Armenia's foreign policy is an open question.

However, it is clear that "the offer of alliance" which, according to Sargsyan, Oskanyan made Levon Ter-Petrosyan has not only Karabakh roots.

Let's recall that ahead of the elections, the media very actively discussed the chances of an alliance between Serzh Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan. And the "alliance" was even confirmed in some way: the Armenian authorities released the supporters of Levon Akopovich and the ANC detained after 1 March 2008 and allowed rallies on Freedom Square, and in return the ANC "scrapped the issue" of the president's immediate resignation.

But now the old situation seems to have broken in Armenia. Vardan Oskanyan forges an alliance with Levon Ter-Petrosyan, and, most importantly, Robert Kocharyan may not be a candidate in the 2013 election, making way for the same Vardan Oskanyan.

It must be remembered that Robert Kocharyan did not start an active campaign. Moreover, reasoning about the likelihood of his return to power, political analysts talked mostly about a plot in the top circles, not an honest election campaign. Experts believe that this unexpected election reshuffle is not the last one, and the balance of power in Armenia in 2013 will change more than once. However, many believe, it is possible that a sort of "anti-Karabakh front" will take shape in Armenia.

In fact, the ten-year rule of Robert Kocharyan, who was succeeded by Serzh Sargsyan, has left the citizens of Armenia with no illusions about the "Karabakh clan" which formed in a predatory war, ethnic cleansing and in an unrecognized "state", which is forced to use "black" or at best, "grey" schemes everywhere. If you add close ties with terrorists and drug traffickers here, the situation will become clear. In any case, it was after the victory of the Karabakh clan over Ter-Petrosyan that analysts started saying that "riffraff had come to power" in the country. The president's key supporters include oligarchs with half-criminal aliases. In Yerevan, real "showdowns" erupted on the streets, while private guards evolved into a kind of "personal army". And the situation in the country continues to gradually deteriorate in the meantime, and above all, it concerns the economy. Poverty is growing in Armenia, and it is extreme. Unemployment is increasing, and against this background, prices continue to rise. According to economists, the country simply has no chances of stabilizing the national currency - the dram.

Finally, the crime situation also worsens the situation. The last straw was the incident that occurred at the Arsnakar restaurant. On 17 June, at the Arsnakar restaurant complex owned by a member of parliament from the ruling Republican Party and head of the Armenian Football Federation, Ruben Hayrapetyan, also known as "Rubo the German", employees and guards beat up officers of the medical service, Edgar Mikoyan, Arkadiy Agajanyan, Garik Sogomonyan and Artak Bayadyan, as well as the head of the ENT department of the Yerevan garrison hospital, Medical Service Major Vahe Avetyan. Avetyan died on 29 June. On 30 June, a protest involving hundreds of citizens was staged outside the Arsnakar. The posters ranged from the politically correct "I am Vahe Avetyan" and "We will not forgive" to "The German is a murderer!" and even "Serzhik is a murderer!".

Against this background, Ruben Hayrapetyan gave up his mandate on 3 July. Experts believe that it was a difficult decision for Serzh Sargsyan: he is not in a situation in which he can lose his supporters and ignore the general indignation.

It would seem that this situation gives great hopes to Robert Kocharyan. However, he seems to understand that the majority of the population links all the "charms" of present-day Armenia to the Karabakh clan. In the elections, he can take some votes away from Serzh Sargsyan, but he is unlikely to win. Most Armenians are fed up with "Karabakh-style democracy". And this dictates simple logic to the "non-Karabakh" opponents of the government - to try to unite both

"Yerevanians" and the diaspora into a single "anti-Karabakh front". Vardan Oskanyan, as we know, was born in Syria, spent many years in the US and has all chances to win their support.

In any case, all of the above suggests that the Armenian "season of big-time politics" will present many more surprises.