"MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN POWER"

Mohamed Morsi has been sworn in as Egypt's new president. A member of the Muslim Brotherhood organization, he triumphed at the presidential elections, the outcome of which could decide Egypt's fate in the foreseeable future. These elections were the first in the "country of the pyramids" since the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, who ruled Egypt unchanged for nearly 30 years.

According to a report of the Egyptian electoral commission, 27.42 million people, or 51.85% of the overall number of those eligible to vote in Egypt, took part in the second round of the presidential elections on 16-17 June. This was somewhat higher than the number of those (46%) who voted in the first round held on 23 and 24 May.

Tensions in the election race were so high that in the run-up to the declaration of the results it seemed that the second wave of a revolution had seized Egypt. Each of the candidates who took part in the second round - Mohamed Morsi, the representative of the Muslim Brotherhood movement, and former prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq (the last head of government under Hosni Mubarak) - rushed to declare themselves elected president immediately after the polls closed. The electoral commission postponed the declaration of the results for three days. However, it was clear that the generals - the real power in Egypt today - seriously feared both the coming to power of an Islamist suspected of trying to alter the secular character of the state and of Shafiq (incidentally, a retired air-force general), who is close to the military . The latter option was extremely dangerous because Morsi and his numerous supporters, who again packed Tahrir Square and had become a symbol of the Egyptian Revolution, had made it clear they were prepared to take power by force.

Thousands of demonstrators, many of them representatives of the liberally-minded youth who believe that the authority of the Islamists was preferable to the virtual preservation of the old regime, demanded that the Supreme Military Council immediately hand over power to a civilian government.  

Egypt found itself on the brink of an Algeria-type situation. In December 1991 the Algerian military revoked the results of the elections which were won by the Islamists. Since then they have only dreamed about complete political stability and a civil war took the lives of over 100,000 people.

In their efforts to avoid possible disturbances, the Egyptian military authorities brought the police, the army and the special forces to full alert. Armoured units were deployed outside the building of the CEC. Cairo was ready to explode as it awaited the declaration of the election results.

But, fortunately, there was no violence. The electoral commission declared the official results of the ballot which showed that Mohamed Morsi had won 51.7% of the vote and Ahmed Shafiq 48.3%. The head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Hussein Tantawi, congratulated Mohamed Morsi on his election victory.

Thus, the years of rule by the generals in Egypt came to an end with Morsi's election. For the first time in the country's history it will be ruled by a freely elected president. In this sense Morsi's victory may be considered historic, if only for the fact that this victory was at the same time a victory for the Muslim Brotherhood, a movement that was banned under Mubarak.

The 60-year old Morsi is an engineer by profession, who was educated at a technical college in the American state of California. After graduation he returned home. During Mubarak's rule he was several times elected to parliament, representing the interests of the officially banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Morsi's first statements as elected president lead one to believe that he has a precise grasp of the current situation in Egypt and recognizes its real potential, and at the same time he is prepared to resolutely uphold his own political principles and views. It is clear that during his presidency Mohamed Morsi will be constrained by the fact that approximately half the population actually voted for him. Whereas on the other half of the scales, in almost the same numbers, are the supporters of Shafiq and the military command behind him. Among them there are many who fear that Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood will turn the country into a closed state, hostile to the West, with the vast majority of its citizens having just as little power as they had under Mubarak. It should be noted in this connection that in the days before the declaration of the election results when Tahrir Square was abuzz, a no less dramatic event was taking place in the Nasr City district at the memorial where in 1981 President Anwar Sadat was killed by radical Islamists. Here people were supporting Shafiq and the Military Council.

Morsi is aware that the supporters of the old regime, especially the military, were worried that the coming to power of the Muslim Brotherhood would not be marked by the transition into their hands of all levers of political power. After all, the new president had been given a country without an effective parliament and without a permanent constitution to determine its powers. Even before the declaration of the name of the winner of the elections, the Supreme Military Council managed to get the dissolution of parliament which, according to the results of the elections, has become a legislative body under the control of the Islamists. The day before the presidential elections parliament ceased to work on the basis of a decision by the Supreme Constitutional Court of Egypt.

Furthermore, the Military Council adopted a constitutional declaration, endowing it with additional powers. These include control over the budget and the right to veto the country's new constitution, which was drawn up in the last few months by Islamists in the former, now dissolved parliament. The Military Council even curtailed a number of the president's powers. In particular, the head of state ceased to be supreme commander-in-chief. This means that the military in advanced refused to be subordinate to him, and it is quite possible that virtual diarchy may now be established in Egypt.

Thus, Morsi has come to power in conditions where a continuation of the political crisis in Egypt, fed by a growing social conflict, is all too probable.  And whether the confrontation between forces close to the president, on the one hand, and the military command and secular circles on the other crosses the border beyond which the spectre of a civil war still seems real will in many ways depend on the new president.

To Morsi's credit, immediately after he was declared the victor in the presidential elections, he did everything possible to reduce the tension in society and not to darken his coming to power with any untoward ostentatiousness. Above all, immediately after the declaration, he left the ranks of the Islamic Muslim Brotherhood and its political wing, the Party of Freedom and Justice. Morsi linked his decision with his own promise about readiness to become "the president of all Egyptians". "At this historic moment I call you to national unity. We are all Egyptians, irrespective of party affiliation," he said.

Mohamed Morsi promised to assist the "real development of the country's economy", again making it clear that this would be possible only with national unity. "We have many resources, it is just that in the past we managed them poorly. Now these resources will serve all of us. I urge you all to take part in a project of rebirth. All of us - Muslims and Christians - must rebuild the country," Morsi stressed.

Demonstrating his determination to work in this direction, Egypt's new president spoke of his intention to appoint a Christian as one of his advisors. Moreover, Morsi intends for the first time in the country's history to include a woman in his circle of the head of state's advisors.  Morsi's close circle is sending signals to Egyptian society and the whole international community that the new president does not intend to turn Egypt into an Iranian-type clerical state.

There is also, undoubtedly, an element of pragmatism in the expression of such a position. The Freedom and Justice Party, which was created by the Muslim Brotherhood, came out, among other things, with a statement that the country's new authorities are not planning any restrictions in the sphere of tourism. This means that foreign tourists will not be obliged to observe the so-called "Muslim dress code", including on Egypt's beaches.

But what is most important is that the Muslim Brotherhood makes no secret of its intention to expand business with foreign states, especially the US, the countries of Western Europe and Russia. Morsi's position on the unacceptability of the renunciation by Egypt of international contracts previously concluded may now be considered to be an important element of his diplomacy. This statement was received in the proper manner in Israel, which believes that the new Egyptian president will remain true to the conditions of the Camp David and Washington agreements of 1978-79. Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu noted that his country "appreciates the democratic process in Egypt and respects its result. Israel will continue cooperation with the Egyptian administration on the basis of the peace agreement between these two countries, in the interests of the two peoples and regional stability".

At the same time, Mohamed Morsi's intention to restore normal relations with Iran is very significant. "Normal relations with Iran must be re-established on a mutually advantageous basis. This will help to ensure a strategic balance in the region. This is one of my keynote theses," Morsi said. As is known, relations between Egypt and Iran were severed in 1980 because Tehran refused to accept the Egypt-Israel peace treaty. After the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, Iran has been persistently striving to re-establish diplomatic ties with Egypt, at the same time promising all kinds of economic support for the new Egyptian authorities, "so that Cairo could offset pressure from the US". Although to put forward any far-reaching proposals that Morsi was ready to make up the list of leaders challenging the West seems, at any rate for the moment, to be quite unjustified.

At this moment in time, much more important than trying to evaluate the new Egyptian president's geopolitical orientation is his, by all accounts, sincere desire to put an end to the months of tension in Egyptian society. In his first speech as president, Mohammed Morsi thanked the "martyrs" who had laid down their lives for the sake of change in the country, and said that "the revolution goes on until all its aims have been achieved". He thanked the families of the dead and injured during the Egyptian Revolution. "I would not be standing here before you if it were not for the blood that was spilled during the revolution. They opened up for us the path to victory," Morsi said. And he went on: "I will do everything in my power to fulfil my promises. I have no rights, I have only the responsibility that I have assumed. Please help me, my people, while I remain honest and God-fearing." 

It is in the interests of Egypt that Mohamed Morsi carries out his promises that are aimed at stabilizing the situation in the country. It is in the interests of the whole world, in any event stability and security in the Middle East and for the destinies of the whole Arab world. Especially when one considers that Egypt is the most populated of the Arab countries and one of the most influential geopolitically states in a truly long-suffering region.