"POINT OF CHOICE" FOR IRAN

The negotiations between Tehran and P5+1 (five member countries of the UN Security Council plus Germany) to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis remain in the centre of world attention. Diplomatic activity is still quite high. Before the 18-19 June talks in Moscow ended, 3 July had already been named as the starting date of the Istanbul round of talks: first, discussions at the expert level, and then a meeting between the deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Baqeri, and EU Deputy High Representative for Foreign Affairs Helga Schmid.

However, most experts agree that no tangible results have been achieved so far. There were high expectations from the Moscow talks, but the actual results turned out quite modest. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that the Moscow round was very specific. "Now it is important to continue the process of rapprochement that has begun between the sides. There were no deviations from concrete points," he said. But at the same time, the diplomat acknowledged that the "differences between the P5+1 and Iran are s very significant". "That's why there were five full-format meetings, as well as many bilateral meetings," Ryabkov said. In the diplomatic language, this means that the dialogue in Moscow ended in nothing. The only positive thing is that it was decided not to close the "diplomatic door" for Iran completely, which was noted by the participant in the meeting and representative of the European Union, Catherine Ashton, who promised that the next stage of the negotiations will be held in Istanbul on 3 July.

But after a week, she also warned that further progress in this matter depends on the outcome of the upcoming 3 July meetings between Iranian experts and experts of the six international mediators in Istanbul. "Depending on the results of the technical meeting between the deputies - Helga Schmidt and Dr Baqeri - a dialogue can take place, and then Dr Jalili (SNSC secretary) and I will discuss ways to move forward," Ashton's press office quoted her as saying. She further added that, according to the decision of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the ban on the importation of Iranian oil to the EU will take effect on 1 July.

Iran diplomacy is moving forward very actively. First, the negotiations were held in Istanbul - 14 April, and then in Baghdad - 23-24 May, and on 18-20 June, the baton was picked up by Moscow, and on 3 July, they will be held in Istanbul again. Moreover, before that, no negotiations had been held for more than a year.

However, most experts that monitor the current stage of the negotiations warn: it is a "decision-making point" for Iran. And perhaps, it is the last chance to avoid resolving the problem by force.

And there is no doubt that the problem does exist. In contrast to the same Pakistan, which created a nuclear bomb on its own, Iran received a pass to the "nuclear world" by joining the IAEA. This meant access to nuclear technology, but also imposed solid commitments on Iran regarding inspections, "openness" and "transparency" of nuclear activities and the absolutely peaceful nature of the nuclear programme. However, Iran is in no hurry to honour its obligations, talking about the "right to nuclear technology", "nuclear sovereignty", "the right to enrich uranium" and produce isotopes for medical research. Furthermore, whether the sanctions on Iran helped to slow down its nuclear programme is still an open question, but there is no doubt that the negotiations are the best guarantee and "insurance" from the military option for the Islamic Republic and allow it to continue its previous activities under their cover.

In any case, statements made by Iranian representatives at the Moscow meeting do not give a special reason for optimism. The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, who represented Tehran at the meeting, said that P5+1 took into account the position of

Iran, which was set forth in a comprehensive plan, but noted that they needed time to consider this position.

The official representative of Tehran also said that the unilateral sanctions against Iran will only harm the eventual progress at the talks between P5+1 and Tehran.

He said the talks conducted by Iran and the agreements it is trying to secure will yield results if everything happens according to the strategy of cooperation and collaboration. "All the measures that counteract this will only harm the process," he said. And the "translation" here is quite transparent: Iran, to put it mildly, is "not ready" for real concessions. Therefore, the expert community is rather pessimistic about the prospects for renewed negotiations.

The talks on Iran's nuclear programme, which the Obama administration wanted to use in order to prevent military intervention by Israel and a rise in oil prices during the presidential campaign, turned out paralyzed, the French newspaper Le Monde writes. For the Obama team, there is a danger of a new wave of criticism because it is in talks for the sake of talks while Iranian centrifuges continue to spin, the newspaper stresses. All parties are interested in continuing the search for intermediate solutions. The US and Europe want to reduce the risk of a serious crisis, Russia and China do not believe in the efficacy of the sanctions, and Iran seeks to reduce the economic pressure, the article says.

The diplomatic process of settling the Iranian problem actually "died" at the talks in Moscow, correspondent Julian Borger says in his blog on the website of The Guardian. "However, because this was a fiercely proud Russian-run hospital, and because the global implications of declaring diplomacy dead are so grave, it is being made to look like it is staggering on," he said.

In a brief commentary, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung suggests that the sanctions against Iran are quite painful for the country, because the Iranian government strongly demanded their removal at the talks in Moscow. Perhaps, the publication says, they will be able to induce Iran to at least think about concessions.

However, Iran still does not trust anyone, and relations between the remaining six countries involved in the talks are not cloudless. Fortunately, the newspaper said, the desire for a military solution is very weak. And it would be very helpful if Russia and China openly expressed their ideas about solving the problem, otherwise they will be seen as a hindrance, according to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Meanwhile, US analysts drew attention to a much more dangerous aspect of the situation. Iran evinces contempt for the West after the talks on the nuclear issue, according to The New York Times. "Iranian politicians and military leaders said that their country will never give up its nuclear rights - after the talks with world powers in Moscow saw no real progress in the debate on nuclear enrichment in Iran," the article said.

"The world powers must accept a nuclear Iran. Iran will never abandon its right to acquire peaceful nuclear technology," an influential member of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, told the state news agency IRNA.

Bahonar said at a press conference that the talks in Moscow were positive for Iran as they allowed the country to determine whether the world powers are serious about the negotiations.

"The Iranian nation is ready to prove that the world powers are nothing, and therefore, they cannot start a war or exert pressure on Iran," Fars news agency quoted Brigadier General Reza Naqdi as saying. These statements indicate that in Iran, they have come to the conclusion that formally, the West does not want to concede to Iran, but it is not ready to move on to actual pressure and especially a military scenario and will even try to keep Israel from doing so.

As pointed out by many experts, it is possible that this time Tehran somewhat overestimated the "softness" of its counterparts. Shortly after the failure of the talks in Moscow between Iran and P5+1, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said "the hopes that the sanctions and diplomacy can stop Iran's race to nuclear weapons now seem an impossible miracle". And he added in an interview with The Washington Post that the American authorities are now discussing technical details of the military operation in Iran. According to him, it is no secret that the United States prefers a diplomatic solution to the Iranian problem.

"We also hope that everything will be resolved by the free will of the ayatollahs after the sanctions or any other forms of pressure are tightened. But when we say that we ourselves will stop the nuclear programme of Iran, we think so. And that's all I can say on the matter," he said.

Barak also said that he was very sceptical about the negotiations between the great powers and Iran.

"Of course, we would love to wake up one morning and find an agreement signed between Iran and major powers, in which all is agreed, and Iran has stopped its military nuclear programme. But still, we are too realistic people. The current sanctions are effective just like tough diplomatic measures against Tehran, but I do not think they will be able to convince the ayatollahs to close the military nuclear programme," the minister of defence said. This means that in Israel and not only, there is a growing disappointment in diplomatic ways to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis. And for obvious reasons, every failure in the talks multiplies the number of supporters of the military option.